Questions now from the party leaders. The leader of the Conservatives, Andrew R.T. Davies. 

Thank you, Presiding Officer. First Minister, the last 14, 15 months have been traumatic for many people in all parts of Wales. One of the things that Governments in other parts of the United Kingdom are undertaking at the moment is commissioning public inquiries, so that we can understand what decisions were taken, and what decisions were good and what decisions were bad, and how we need to prepare for future pandemics. Now that you have a new mandate, First Minister, will you be commissioning a specific Wales public inquiry to look back on the pandemic and look forward to what we need to prepare for a future pandemic? 

No, Llywydd, I won't be doing that, because I've agreed with his Government in Westminster that we will be part of the public inquiry that the Prime Minister has announced. As far as I am aware, that is the only public inquiry that is proposed in the United Kingdom. I've had the opportunity to discuss that with senior members of the Government in Westminster. I have put the point to them that I believe there must be specific chapters in that inquiry that deal with the experience here in Wales, and deal with it exclusively, but I've agreed with the Prime Minister and with Michael Gove, the Minister in charge of the Cabinet Office, that a single UK-wide inquiry, with the force that it will have, with the capacity that it will have to see the interconnected nature of many of the decisions that have been made across the United Kingdom, is the best way to shine a light on the way in which those many distressing experiences that people have had in Wales in this extraordinary time can be properly understood and an account of them given.

I think that's regrettable, First Minister, because, as very often you've said—and rightly said—the decisions made in Wales affect people in Wales and you've called for more powers in various areas to obviously strengthen the hand of the Government here in Wales on many matters. Regrettably, we know 7,860 people have died here in Wales because of the pandemic. Many people, obviously, are dealing with long COVID, and as we speak people are being admitted, albeit in far smaller numbers, thankfully, due to the success of the vaccine programme, into hospitals because of COVID and its continuing variants across the length and breadth of Wales. But it is a fact that unique decisions were taken specifically for Wales, whether they be around hospitals, care homes or the restrictions, and the differences those restrictions have had on Welsh commerce and business, because, obviously, your Government is responsible in those areas. So, I'd encourage you, First Minister, to look again at the possibility of a Wales-wide specific inquiry, because ultimately those decisions were made here in Wales, and those decisions need to be tested here in Wales by an independent public inquiry. I'm sure many of the people who have been affected by the outfall of COVID would expect an independent inquiry to be held here in Wales.

Well, Llywydd, let me deal with the first part of the Member's question first, because I think there are some important things just to make sure are understood and in the public domain, because not all Members may have seen the figures published just an hour or two ago by Public Health Wales—the latest figures setting out the number of delta variant cases in Wales today. The number has gone up since Friday by a further 81 new cases, to stand now at 178. It was 51 when we met here—. Well, we didn't meet here, did we? A week ago today, when the figures were published, it was 51, and it went up to 97 on Friday, and it's 178 today. When the leader of the opposition points to the significance of the pandemic in Wales and the fact that there are still things that are troubling and need to be watched very carefully, those figures, I think, give us all real pause for thought.

I don't disagree with what he said about unique decisions being made here in Wales. I don't disagree with what he said about the need for a proper inquiry, an independent inquiry, to be made into the way in which the responsibilities that are held here should be discharged. But as I've said, I have agreed not only with the Prime Minister, but with the First Ministers of Scotland and of Northern Ireland, that a UK-wide independent inquiry, encompassing the unique experiences and decisions made in different parts of the United Kingdom, but capable, therefore, of looking as well at the wider context within which those decisions were made, the interconnected nature of many of them—. Many times, he has made points here in the Chamber, and again, they've been fair points when he's made them, that the ways in which we make decisions in Wales are inevitably interconnected with decisions that are made across our border. The inquiry that the Prime Minister has proposed, and the undertakings that his Government have given that we will be involved in setting the terms of reference for that inquiry, and the points that I will go on making about the need for the inquiry to have sections in it that are specific to Wales, and make sure that people in Wales have the answers to the questions they may have, I continue to believe that that is the best way to give people the most insightful account of the way in which the events of the last 15 months have worked themselves out in Wales and the way in which decisions have been made here.

As I said in my response to your first question, I do regret the fact that there will not be—in your view, anyway—an independent public inquiry specifically here in Wales, commissioned by yourself as First Minister. Some people might say that that's running away from scrutiny and accountability for the decisions that you were taking as a Government, because that's what's required here is the sunlight of a public inquiry into those decisions, and above all, to put the preparations in place for any future pandemic we might face, First Minister. I would be grateful if, at your earliest convenience, you could make a statement available to explain exactly how the UK-wide inquiry will look at the Wales-specific decisions, which I appreciate that you've given some information on in your response to me this afternoon, but it is vitally important that Senedd Members understand exactly how Wales's experience will be reflected in that inquiry.

And I, again, put on the record from the Welsh Conservatives' point of view that we believe that there should be a Wales-wide public inquiry to look into the very specific issues that Wales had to deal with and, importantly, the decisions that Welsh Government Ministers took.

Well, Llywydd, of course, as more details of how the inquiry will be conducted become available—and we'll be part of the discussions about that—I will certainly make sure that statements are provided to Members here too, so that they are as up-to-date on all of that as possible. There's nothing that the Member has said about the need for an inquiry, the nature or the purpose of the inquiry that I disagree with.

I do just have to say to him, though, it's not just my view that there should be a UK-wide inquiry; it is the view of the Conservative Government of the United Kingdom. So, I think, in that case, if he feels strongly that a different decision should be made, then I think that he should be taking that up with the Prime Minister as well. He's a member of that party, he's the leader of that party in the Senedd, and when he says to me that it is my view, as though it is some idiosyncratic view of the First Minister in Wales, let me just tell him again: I have agreed with the Prime Minister; I have agreed with the First Ministers of other parts of the United Kingdom that the best way to provide the information that the people in Wales need is by being part of that UK inquiry.

Deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Thank you very much, Llywydd. A fortnight ago, I was wishing the First Minister well on his re-election and today I'm wishing the leader of Plaid Cymru well as he begins his period of paternity leave, and I'm sure that everyone would wish to send their best wishes to Adam and family.

In March, the Royal College of Nursing said that three quarters of their members had reported an increase in work pressures, over half said that staff morale had declined, and one in three stated that they were thinking about leaving the profession, with over half stating that wage levels were the reason for that. We expect the NHS pay review body to make its recommendations later this month, and I fully expect you to say that you will await those recommendations, but do please give us an idea of what you think is fair, and you can refer, if you wish, to the 1 per cent increase suggested in Westminster and the 4 per cent that has been agreed in Scotland.

Llywydd, of course I would join Rhun ap Iorwerth in sending our best wishes to Adam and his family too.

We have provided information to the body that makes recommendations on salaries in the health service and it is now up to them to come to conclusions. That is why we have an independent panel in place to do that work. There is one thing that's clear, and I need to get this on the record for Members now: on the possibility of us paying more than the funding provided to us through the Barnett formula, well, there is no scope for us to do that. The funding provided to us in Wales is reliant on decisions taken by Ministers in Westminster on wages and salaries, and we are then provided with a Barnett consequential.

I have been in this position as Minister for health, where the only thing that we could discuss and negotiate with the royal college and the unions was how we could use the funds. We don't have the scope to raise more funding, but we can use that funding differently when we know what we'll be provided with.

It's your prerogative, of course, to prioritise expenditure. I believe that health and care staff are a priority, and I think that the past year has shown that. What the RCN has said is that the last year has underlined problems that already existed: work pressures, low morale and the lack of staff, of course. 

The Welsh Government doesn't publish figures on empty posts in terms of nursing. Estimates suggest that it could be around 1,600. A salary increase would certainly help with the recruitment and retention of staff. The health Minister, in an interview on Sunday, wasn't willing to confirm whether the Government would be implementing the recommendations of the independent group. She was asked whether it would be implemented if the recommendation was significantly above 1 per cent. Her response was:

'I guess we will go beyond 1 per cent.' This shouldn't be a guessing game when it comes to band 5 registered nurses on less than £25,000 a year. But, if we use again Scotland's agreed 4 per cent increase as a reference point, are you happy to say here now that nurses here won't receive a lower settlement than that?

Well, what I'll say, Llywydd, is what I've said already. We've provided our evidence to the independent review body. We'll wait to see what they have to say. There's no point in setting up bodies and going through the process if you want me to second guess, before they've reported, what the Welsh Government might do. We will wait and we will see what they conclude.

Of course the Welsh Government wants to make sure that front-line workers are properly paid for the work that they do. I agree with what many have said, that the 1 per cent offer that the UK Government appeared to put on the table for healthcare staff, after everything that they have done for us in the last 12 months, simply wasn't adequate to reflect that contribution. But, there is a process that is in play and the Member will have to wait, just as we do, to see where that process takes us, how much money it brings to us here in Wales, and what we are then able to do with it. We will do that in the way that we always have, in partnership with the trade union movement—those who represent those staff—looking always to do the very best that we can for them.

You'll know that, in the recent election, I outlined Plaid Cymru's plans to ensure that care workers would also be recognised with a fair pay settlement. To us, that was part of creating a national health and care service, moving care workers onto NHS pay scales. You promised to pay care workers the real living wage. So, at the very least, let's see that implemented without delay.

In that same interview, actually, on Sunday, the health and care Minister said that your Government will do that as soon as you can. But, I think that we need to do better than that in terms of giving a timescale. So, let me give you this opportunity during Carers Week to give that promise that there will be no delay. 'As soon as we can', I think, is no consolation to front-line staff who have put their own safety at risk during the past extraordinary year.

Well, Llywydd, I thank Rhun ap Iorwerth for drawing attention to Carers Week, which is a very important week here in Wales. We have a higher proportion of our population that provide informal care than any other part of the United Kingdom, and I was very pleased on Monday that my colleague Julie Morgan was able to make specific announcements, using money that we have set aside. It was in my own party's manifesto to make sure that respite care for carers can be improved here in Wales.

In the social partnership arrangements that we have agreed during the last 12 months, we have established a new social care forum. It's part of the social partnership forum, and it brings together the employers, the local authorities and the trade unions. They are giving us advice on how we can make sure that the money that we will invest as a Government, to make sure that people in the sector are paid the real living wage, reaches those workers rather than ending up in the profit margins of private companies. That is the only delay that there will be in the system.

It is just making sure that, with over 1,000 different employers in the sector—. It's not the same as in the health service. When I was the health Minister, we were able to agree the real living wage for health service employers, and it's very simple. There are a small number of employers, a national system, the money goes in at one end and you know where it’s going at the other. It genuinely is not like that in the social care sector, given the number of employers there are, the different scale and the different way that they operate. The social care forum is going to help us make sure that we have the mechanism in place so that the money that the Welsh Government will invest for the purposes that we share with the Member and share with Plaid Cymru, both of us in our manifestos having made this a priority—we just need to make sure, in a practical way, that that money ends up where we want it to end up. As soon we’re confident that the mechanism is there, we’ll be able to get on with that job.