Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:03 pm on 22 June 2021.
Diolch, Deputy Presiding Officer. Minister, can I thank you for your update this afternoon? On the delta variant, although we're looking at higher numbers of infections in Wales, there are still relatively low numbers of hospitalisations, fortunately, standing at 116 with COVID in general in acute beds, and one with COVID in an invasive ventilation bed. I of course appreciate, and I think you said it yourself, that there's always going to be that time lag, isn't there, between weeks of infection to severe cases.
But I turn now to what I asked you on 8 June about your research on vaccinations, to which you responded at the time that early analysis of the data was looking very positive, and there were actually still very few cases of the delta variant at the time, but it was growing exponentially. So, at that time, you said you needed an
'extra two weeks for us to analyse that data', so that it was the right call—you said at the time—for the Cabinet to make the decisions of phasing in the restrictions. Now, I know last Friday the First Minister couldn't give any particular update in terms of the effectiveness of the vaccination. We're now two weeks on today, and there's nothing in particular on that in today's statement. So can I ask: are you able to provide any further update on how the vaccinations have worked against the delta variant in Wales? And if you aren't able to answer that today, can you perhaps give us an indication of when you will be in a position to give us that analysis?
Turning to the restrictions, I note—. As far as my perspective is concerned, we've been told, haven't we, by health professionals, that COVID is likely to be with us forever, and I'm sure you would agree with that analysis, sadly. And we have to live with COVID. So, I think, from my perspective, I certainly don't want to see us in any further lockdowns; I'm sure we all would agree with that position. The First Minister has said that he won't rule out any further lockdowns at the present time. I'm assuming you agree with the First Minister's position on that. You've said that there will be a pause, effectively, over the next four weeks, but can I ask you about any considerations in Cabinet that you have given to having further restrictions or further lockdowns? That's not what I want to see, but I'm asking you for your analysis and your thoughts in terms of what your considerations are as a Cabinet in that regard. Are you looking at further restrictions now and, effectively, are you seeking to have a situation where Wales has a zero COVID death rate? Because that position, I think, would be almost impossible to achieve. But I'm trying to understand here the balance that you are bringing and when we're going to get that information on hospitalisations for the delta variant in terms of your thinking in terms of potential further restrictions as well.
You've mentioned a couple of areas that you have relaxed. I was very pleased that you've relaxed visits to those in hospital; you've relaxed restrictions there. You've permitted singing in churches, which is another area I welcome as well. The outdoor education centres is, again, welcome, but I think the concern there is—and I'll perhaps ask for your thoughts on whether there are some lessons to be learned here—that for certain industries, they do need to have much prior notice, because for outdoor educational centres that take weeks to prepare, and schools then have to make arrangements, it's just too late in the day for them to alter their arrangements. We know that, once perhaps a school has changed their location—perhaps they were even coming into Wales and going to somewhere else in the UK—then in future years they may not go back to coming to Wales. So, it's very important that decisions are made and released to certain sectors with urgency, and with time for them to be able to plan in order for that restriction lifting to make the difference.
Clinical experts have warned that, because cases of the flu have been suppressed so much in the last 18 months, presumably because of the lockdowns, our immune systems will be lower, leading to stored up problems, potentially, for the winter. Now, here in Wales, Public Health Wales has noted that the flu GP consultation rates were 0.7 per 100,000 practice population—that's as at 17 June—well below the seasonal average of 11 per 100,000. So, its own surveillance data is suggesting that the flu has not circulated over the winter months, so there remains the potential for unseasonal activity or higher than usual rates during the 2021-22 season. And globally, the World Health Organization has also expressed concerns that influenza, or flu, activity remains at a lower level than expected for this time of year. So, looking at last year's uptake of the flu vaccination, just over 51 per cent of those under 65 years of age in a clinical risk group received their vaccination for the flu. So, what efforts are you making now in order to ensure that those most at risk will be given their vaccination, and, most importantly, take it up? And I wonder if you could also let us know what your discussions are with your UK counterparts in terms of another COVID booster programme, and how you are supporting the Welsh NHS to prepare and cope with what will inevitably be a greater winter pressure that's going to come, sadly.