In a moment, I will set out some reasons for greater optimism in dealing with this third wave than either of its predecessors, but I want to leave Members in no doubt at all that community prevalence on this scale brings with it a set of real dangers that no responsible Government or Senedd should ignore. Our technical advisory group now says that the prevalence of infection in Wales will remain extremely high for at least the rest of this summer. That level of circulation of the virus will increase the risk of new variants emerging; increase the risk of the virus re-entering hospitals, care homes and other closed settings; it will increase the risk that the virus will move from younger to older people, repeating the pattern of both waves 1 and 2; it will increase the number of people suffering from long COVID; it will increase workforce absences, including in our key public services, and it will place greater strain on our test, trace, protect service and the genomic sequencing service, making the identification of new variants more difficult.

What, then, Llywydd, are the countervailing factors? Well, first and foremost, vaccination, and particularly our high rates of vaccination in Wales, is changing our relationship with the virus, and doing so faster than any other UK nation. Today, more than 73 per cent of all adults in Wales have received two doses of the vaccine. The figure in England and Scotland is 66 per cent, and it is 65 per cent in Northern Ireland. The rising tide of cases has not translated into higher rates of serious illnesses, hospital admissions and deaths in the same way that it did during the first wave or in the winter, and that is because of vaccination. I want to put on record again my thanks to all those people who have worked so hard to plan and run this highly successful programme.

The second way in which the position is more promising in this third wave is the way we have lived, and that has left some positive legacy. The Office for National Statistics's weekly estimate states that, of all the four home nations, Wales has the highest level of acquired immunity, and that now stands at 92 per cent of the whole population. Thirdly, we have the defence of the TTP system. In the week ending 3 July, 95 per cent of index cases eligible for follow-up were contacted within 24 hours, and 93 per cent of their contacts were traced.

Llywydd, that is the context in which the Cabinet has completed our three-weekly review of coronavirus restrictions. Our assessment is that, taking all these factors—negative and positive together—we can now proceed to a full level 1 set of regulations. This means that, from 17 July, from Saturday, up to six people will be able to meet indoors in private homes and holiday accommodation; organised indoor events for up to 1,000 people seated or 200 people standing will be able to take place, following a risk assessment; and that ice rinks will be able to re-open. And we believe we can go a step further as we move to the new alert level 0, and that we will be able to introduce alert level 0 levels of restrictions for outdoor events and gatherings, also from 17 July. We will therefore remove the limits on the number of people who can gather outdoors. Outdoor premises and events will have more flexibility around physical distancing. This will continue, though, to be one of the mitigations to be considered in carrying out and implementing risk assessments. We are able to do this because of our long-standing conclusion that the risk of transmission outdoors is much lower than indoors, and because we need to take advantage of the summer period. At the same time, from 17 July, the regulations will also change to allow up to 30 people from organisations such as the Urdd, Brownies or Scouts to attend residential centres over the summer holidays.