1. What assessment has the Welsh Government made of the impact of significant gas price increases and the concurrent increase in energy prices on Welsh consumers? TQ565

Diolch, Delyth. Families in Wales are facing a perfect storm of increased energy prices, the freeze on the local housing allowance and the removal of the £20 uplift in universal credit. We have called on the UK Government to reverse these decisions and protect households from potentially devastating impacts this winter.

Thank you, Minister, and diolch, Llywydd, for accepting this topical question. This crisis is global, of course, in nature, but the UK is in a particularly perilous situation due to unusually low gas storage, the loss of the IFA interconnecter, hampering our ability to import electricity from Europe, and lower-than-usual wind energy production. We're seeing a crisis that sits within many interlinked crises and, Minister, as I'm sure you'll agree, we shouldn't underestimate the scale of the crisis. The head of Ofgem said today to MPs that the price increase was unprecedented, and that gas prices are already six times higher than last year, having increased 70 per cent in August alone. He also contradicted the Prime Minister's assurance by saying the problem is unlikely to be temporary. However global or complicated the causes of the crisis are, the impact will be very simple and it could be devastating for low-income households.

As you've set out, Minister, this won't be visited on them alone. Thousands of families will see their universal credit cut, they'll face increased living costs, and now bigger energy bills. Minister, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation says that a couple with two children on universal credit will be £130 a month worse off by October, and the budget gap will increase to £1,750 by the end of the next financial year. These are people that cannot afford to take this kind of hit. Could the Minister tell us please what the Welsh Government can do to support people who face this imminent financial hardship? I'm especially concerned about people using prepayment meters who could have their supply cut off if they can't afford to top up. And will she also press UK Ministers about the need to take immediate financial action to support these families, like Spain, France and Italy have already announced?

Further, could the Minister also tell us whether she's held discussions with Welsh steel makers and other heavy industries that face cost increases, and whether she's relayed their concerns to the UK Government? I'd also be grateful, Minister, to hear about any action being taken to protect the agricultural sector in the face of the carbon dioxide shortage. The UK Government deal announced last night to resume production is only for a fortnight, and I know that the National Farmers Union has called for immediate assurance.

Finally, Minister, the crisis is bringing home to us just how urgent it is, of course, for us to switch to more renewable energy, but I know that the questions that will be at the forefront of people's minds will be about how we'll keep the lights on, and how people will be fed and kept warm. I'm sure many will listen to the Minister's answers with keen interest. 

Diolch, Delyth. Well, absolutely. We've done a number of things since the crisis has hit. I completely agree with your analysis as to the impact on lower income families and, indeed, a number of our businesses, and agricultural businesses in particular.

I met the chief executive at Ofgem just yesterday to discuss the impacts on Welsh consumers and Welsh businesses of the global wholesale gas price rise and the side effect of the carbon dioxide production—extraordinary that it is a side effect, but that's where we are. We know that some energy companies will try and push the prices right up to the cap, and others will unfortunately go out of business, so we were very concerned to understand whether any of those were Welsh-based businesses and whether there was anything we could do specifically to help them. We were also very concerned to understand, just for continuity of supply, never mind price, whether we had sufficient numbers of larger companies able to take across Welsh consumers who are currently receiving supply off companies likely to go out of business in the very short term. So, we're working on assurances to that and to make sure that we have that information from Ofgem so that we can help make that transition happen.

This is leaving aside the issue of whether people can pay for it. This is actually just making sure the gas stays on so they can cook and, indeed, heat their homes. I've written to Ofgem subsequent to the meeting, seeking their assurance in writing of the continuity of supply for Welsh consumers and that consumer rights will be protected. I've also written to the UK Secretary of State on the need for urgent action by the UK Government to manage market stability and consumer costs. I met with the Secretary of State last night—no, the night before last, sorry. It's all been so fast moving I can barely remember. It's Wednesday. Monday night, I met with the Secretary of State, just to have a sort of emergency meeting about what could be done, and then our officials have been in touch all day yesterday and today, and no doubt there will be another ministerial meeting at some point this week, which either myself or Lesley Griffiths will be attending. I made the point forcibly in that meeting that this wasn't just about supply, that this was about affordability, and that we had a perfect storm of Conservative policies all hitting at once.

We've got the removal of the £20 universal credit, which, extraordinarily, Thérèse Coffey seemed to feel people could just work two hours to make up, which just shows how out of touch they are. No doubt there are one or two people in the country for whom that is the case, but most people are already using all of their allowances well up past the cap for the taper to kick in. So, it just shows a complete inability to understand the situation, to my way of thinking. The Minister for Economy, myself, and the Minister for finance are also all writing to the UK Government to highlight our concerns about rising prices, the effect on budgets and so on. Delyth, you highlighted quite rightly the potential effect on a number of businesses—agricultural businesses, farmers and so on. There's also an impact on public services, of course, because not only will they have the national insurance rises, but now they also have increased gas prices to run hospital heating systems, school heating systems and so on. So, this is a whammy right across the entire economy, really.

You're quite right in saying what the modelling is for the impact on families of the rising gas and electricity costs—around £3 a week, and living costs up by about £8 a week on top of the £20-a-week universal credit cut, so around £130 worse off from October. Without intervention from us, that is a really big hit on people's incomes. So, we are very seriously using our levers as fast as we can in Wales. We've got our Warm Homes programme supporting lower income families; just under 62,000 households benefit from a saving of around £280 on their annual bills through that programme. We also continue to provide all the flexibilities that we have added to the discretionary assistance fund this winter, including the reintroduction of fuel support for off-grid clients—so, the people on oil as well, because that's also rising in price.

We've also invested an additional £25.4 million in the discretionary assistance fund to allow people who are suffering extreme financial hardship to have crisis payments. They're not intended to meet ongoing expenses, but major crisis expenses, but if there's no other way of them meeting the immediate costs of living then we will look to flex those issues as well. We also have a number of other things that I could detail, which you'll be familiar with, such as discretionary housing payments, which we're still topping up for local authorities and so on. So, I assure you we are very alert to the issues you raise. We're completely on the same page as you in terms of the impact, and we're looking to use all the levers we have to make sure that people have as least impact as possible from this really quite appalling convergence of very cruel Tory policies. 

Prepayment meters are amongst the most cruel of things because people don't put their heating on because they've got no money to put the heating on. It doesn't show as being cut off; they just don't have any heating. And I think that, sometimes, that is underestimated, but people will be going cold tonight. 

As do you, Deputy Presiding Officer, I have a serious concern about the steel industry. In the steel industry, a major cost is energy cost, and as that goes up, the price of steel doesn't go up as fast, and then it puts pressure on the steel industry, not just in your constituency, but in other constituencies around Wales, where many of my constituents work. 

But what I want to ask is: what is the estimated cost of the energy price increase to the public sector in Wales, and what additional funding will be given by the Welsh Government to Welsh Government-funded public sector organisations to help cover this additional cost? And by that I mean, effectively, mainly the health service and local government. 

Thank you, Mike. I agree with your assessment of prepayment meters. Part of the conversation with Ofgem—I had an already scheduled meeting with them in the diary, and I've had an additional meeting as well—part of the scheduled meeting with Ofgem is to discuss with them the plight of people on prepayment meters and what we can do to make sure that they register as people without a service, and how we can get them on to a better kind of a tariff. That's an ongoing issue. 

In terms of the steel industry, and other industries affected around Wales, that's part of the ongoing conversation with Ofgem. A number of Ministers, not just myself, are now engaged in discussions across various sectors to find out quite what the impact is. The gas price has gone up by five times as much, as Delyth said, in her introductory remarks, so that's five times higher bills in the short term. We will be working right across the public sector to understand the impact of this and the rise in national insurance and a number of other things that will impact our ability to deliver public services.

We've also made the point forcibly to the UK Government, via my colleague Rebecca Evans, that these things need to be taken account of in the comprehensive spending review, and then, the allocation to Wales, because these are clearly issues that are not going away. I personally made the point to the Secretary of State in the meeting on Monday night that, in looking for the market to realign itself, as he put it, that doesn't just mean more expensive carbon dioxide. That means more expensive everything, including public services, and that the Government needs to take account of it in relying on the market, quite extraordinarily in my view, to sort out these kinds of sustainability issues. 

Of course this is a very important issue for people across the whole of the UK, and I welcome the action that the UK Government is now taking. Crucially, I very much welcome that the UK Government's energy cap will remain in place, continuing to provide protection to those that need it most. I also welcome that the UK Government has said it is considering offering emergency state-backed loans to energy companies to encourage them to take on customers from any companies that sadly may let consumers down. However, regardless of these current issues facing us, fuel poverty is still a persistent issue in Wales, and it is clear that more needs to be done to address it. 

So, would the Minister consider using the levers that she has available to her to relax the rules around the emergency assistance payment, to ensure that there is additional support available to those who need it over the coming months, particularly to those who would usually not be eligible for support? Alongside this, the increase in the price of gas is affecting food producers, supermarkets and other key industries who rely on the stable supply of carbon dioxide for food production. So, I'm sure the Minister, well, I hope the Minister will join me in welcoming the news that the UK Government has now signed an arrangement to provide financial support to CF Fertilisers UK Ltd who produce around 60 per cent of the UK's carbon dioxide. 

So, with that in mind, what considerations has the Welsh Government given to providing support to businesses in the food industry in order to ensure the current and continued production of Welsh food? Diolch. 

Well, I have to say, Janet, I absolutely admire the brass neck that you have in asking me that question in light of the convergence of Conservative policies that have brought us to this state. The UK Government has indeed made a deal with the company. It lasts for two weeks. After that, they expect the prices to rise and the market to sort it out. That's what it means, 'The markets will sort it out': the prices rising. So, they have done absolutely nothing of any lasting impact.

Of course, we will use all the levers that are at our disposal to mitigate the impact on both consumers and industries across Wales, but that impact is absolutely enhanced by the changes to universal credit, the freeze on local housing allowance, the increase in national insurance and so on. So, the least you could do, Janet, is implore your Government to make sure that, as part of the comprehensive spending review, they take into account the impact of their policies on this Government's ability to protect its people and its industries. And I really do think you've got quite a cheek to ask me what we're going to do in light of the policies that you presumably support in devastating the incomes of low-income families and businesses across Wales. 

Thank you, Minister.