Part of 1. Questions to the First Minister – in the Senedd at 2:23 pm on 28 September 2021.
I thank Joyce Watson for what is a very important question. Our initial estimate is that the direct cost to Welsh public services of employer national insurance contributions will be somewhere between £80 million and £90 million a year, and that does not include any contracted staff that they may have, as will be very common in social care. I'm afraid, Llywydd, the answer to the Member's question probably is, 'We'll never know', because we will have the opacity of the Barnett formula wrapped up in a comprehensive spending review, and I have no doubt at all that the UK Government will claim that all those costs have somehow been covered by the sums that they then derive from that exercise. It will be very difficult indeed to see whether that is in reality the case, or whether it is just the normal smoke and mirrors that we see around spending times. What is certain, Llywydd, is this: that of the money that the UK Government says will be invested in health and social care after April of next year, fully 12 per cent of it will come from the national insurance contributions of people who work in health and social care. So, it is the people who are doing the job who are being asked to pay for the money that is being provided. That is why we have said all along that national insurance was not the right vehicle through which to provide the very necessary funding for those vital public services.