Diolch yn fawr, Dirprwy Lywydd, and thank you for this opportunity to update Members about what continues to be a very serious public health situation. Since the Senedd was recalled before Christmas, the situation in Wales has changed. The omicron wave has arrived, as predicted, and is causing large numbers of people to fall ill. This is disrupting our public services, particularly the NHS, at the busiest time of the year.

Dirprwy Lywydd, I'll start by setting out the public health situation in terms of the latest facts and figures. Just before Christmas, when delta was the dominant form of the virus, the case rate was high but steady at around 500 cases per 100,000 people. The arrival of omicron has caused rates to accelerate to levels not seen before in the pandemic. We saw rates exceed 2,300 cases per 100,000 people last week; yesterday, there were 1,780. But we should be careful before assuming that we've peaked and the worst is over. Case numbers will be affected by the changes in the testing regime and the fact that we no longer require everyone who tests positive on a lateral flow test to take a confirmatory PCR test. This change in testing means we must rely on a broader range of measures to understand the nature of the wave.

The proportion of cases testing positive remains at around 50 per cent. The latest results of the Office for National Statistics infection survey suggest one in 20 people is infected, and our own data on hospitalisations shows the number of COVID-19 admissions continuing to rise, although numbers are much lower than in previous waves. The total number of people in hospital with COVID-19 is now just over 1,000—the highest level since 11 March. But it could be another week before we see cases peak.

There's some hopeful evidence that omicron is less severe than delta, but the rise in hospital numbers and the speed at which it's travelling continues to give cause for concern. We knew the case numbers would rise very fast, we knew that this would put the NHS under pressure, and it would also put other public services under pressure and put pressure on staffing in commercial and retail businesses. The latest figures show staff absences across the NHS, as a result of COVID, self-isolation and other illnesses, running at just over 8 per cent last week, but in some NHS organisations it's more than double this. Unfortunately, this means some appointments and treatments are being postponed and staff are being transferred to work in urgent and emergency services. Other parts of the public sector have reported similar levels and are putting in motion civil contingency plans to move staff to protect essential services.

Dirprwy Lywydd, we took early action to introduce protective measures to keep Wales safe and to keep Wales open, in line with advice from our technical advisory group and the UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. We are at alert level 2 and we've strengthened guidance to support people to stay safe in their own homes. We keep the situation and the alert level 2 measures under constant review. We have made some additional changes, firstly to the self-isolation rules, reducing the period of self-isolation from 10 to seven days for those people who have two consecutive negative lateral flow tests on days 6 and 7. The decision to change the self-isolation period reflects the latest evidence on how long people can transmit the virus for and supports essential public services and supply chains over the winter, while still limiting the spread of the virus. The first change to the testing regime means that people who are unvaccinated contacts of positive cases and are self-isolating for 10 days should now take a lateral flow test on day 2 and day 8, instead of a PCR test.

And, together with the other UK nations, we have agreed that, if a person has a positive lateral flow test, they will no longer be advised to have a follow-up PCR test to confirm the result, unless they are in a clinically vulnerable group or have been advised to do so as part of a research or surveillance programme. We believe that this change will reduce the demand for PCR tests by between 5 per cent and 15 per cent.