A crisis is usually immediate. It's a time of intense difficulty, sometimes danger. But when we think of crises, we tend to associate them with suddenness, of something unforeseen, unplanned for, inescapable. This crisis, though, this coalescence of attacks on people's cost of living, is completely foreseen. In some respects like the cut to universal credit, it has been actively brought on by Government. Even the energy bills increase that's on the horizon has been coming for months, arguably far longer. And that incongruity, that clash between usual crises and what's happening now, isn't just jarring on a conceptual level; it has real-world effects. Psychologically, people who are already struggling to get by with bills, with food prices, will have been reading headlines for months that warned them that things are going to get worse, will have that looming sense of dread weigh on them, and will see not enough being done to stop it—that sense of anticipated crisis and expected trauma. That is going to be enveloping families in panic and quiet despair, and I'm not sure enough is being done to address that simmering mental health pressure that's being felt by people the length and breadth of Wales. People are already in crisis.

One woman told Newsnight this week that she ate Weetabix three times a day, because cutting her food bill drastically was the only way she could afford to heat her home. Another told Newyddion that she couldn't sleep because of worry. Money she put in her meter disappeared in no time, with her house's heat escaping through draughty windows. She said her son was ill all the time. These are not isolated experiences, as we've heard. In spring 2021, 16 per cent of Welsh households had to cut back on heating, electricity, or water, and 15 per cent cut back on food. We're told—again, we are warned in advance—that these figures will only get bigger as costs continue to rise. So, the gap between how people should be able to live their lives and the reality will grow greater. That shameful gap will gape open between living properly and only surviving. On 1 April, the energy price cap will increase. The Resolution Foundation estimates that this will add £600 to people's annual energy bills. The same week, national insurance increases come into effect, making the average household £600 a year worse off. Combined, the annual effect will be £1,200, or £100 every month.

In terms of energy bills, there are interventions that could be made, and indeed are being made by other states. France is forcing EDF to sell energy at low prices. The Spanish Government has introduced a windfall tax on electricity generators and gas producers. Germany has slashed a surcharge on bills used to support renewable energy schemes, which will instead receive extra state subsidies drawn from higher carbon taxes. These may or may not be suitable, or indeed possible, in a UK context, but the Welsh and UK Governments could and must look at interventions like suspending VAT on energy bills temporarily, retrofitting social housing more quickly and finding better ways to protect those with top-up meters. Could they be issued with a Welsh Government card, for example, to be used in emergency situations, with the option of paying off debt over the long term on zero interest? Yes, that would be expensive, but the alternative seems to be people suffering and even dying due to illness brought about by the cold; a situation where families are under financial pressure that can provoke stress and acute anxiety that can wear people down and exhaust them, and again all the while, a crisis that is not like a short, sharp shock, but a slow, burning bind, that is locking people into that anguish and misery that traps people in anticipated trauma.

I said at the start of my contribution that a crisis is usually sudden and characterised by intensity, but the meaning of the word 'crisis' actually comes from the Greek for 'decision', and that is surely what is needed here at this decisive point, this moment of anticipation before the crisis gets worse. We need fundamental reform, and we need to rethink the way we model our society so that it doesn't depend on people putting up with just about surviving.