Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:10 pm on 15 February 2022.
Thanks very much, Russell. Of course, we will have to learn to live with COVID. It's not going away, it's not going to disappear, and that's why, in the next three-week review, you'll be seeing us really developing a longer term strategy for how we intend to do that.
I'll jump, if you don't mind, to your last point, which is on mandatory isolation, because I think there's a link here. The difficulty is that the UK Government is acting as if it's all over, and the reality is, if you read the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies advice, it's actually quite sobering about what else could be coming around the corner. At the moment, we're doing well, but we don't know what may come next.
Let me give you some ideas about what may come next. They say that it's almost certain that there will a genetic variation of the virus that will render current vaccines ineffective. Those aren't my words, that's SAGE saying that. They say that, in terms of the milder disease with omicron—so, it's been fairly mild compared to what we've had before—we're unlikely to see that again; it's more likely to be more like delta. Again, this is not me saying this, these are scientists saying this. It's also telling us that we are likely to experience new waves of variants. So, let's just be aware that, of course, we're in a better place now, but dismantling the whole edifice is probably not a sensible idea. Obviously, we've got a lot of thinking to do, and we have got to understand that there is a very close relationship—indeed, a dependency, to an extent—with what happens in England, and so, what they decide will affect what we're able to decide here. So, it is important, when we're talking about learning to live with COVID, that we have to understand that it's not just about what's going on now, it's what may or may not be coming around the corner at us in future.
In relation to vaccine passports, we know that, under delta, for example, the vaccination helped to reduce transmission. So, if you were going to come into contact with someone, you were less likely to pass it on, and that does make a difference when you're going to an indoor enclosed space. There's also international evidence to suggest that it drove up the take-up of vaccines. So, that evidence does exist, and, of course, it is just one measure in a series of other measures. You keep on asking for evidence; where is your evidence to suggest that it caused great damage to the night-time economy? I'm not sure if there is much evidence to suggest that, actually, the COVID passes—[Interruption.] I understand, if you're closing a nightclub and they can't open, that's different. You weren't talking about that. You were talking about COVID passes, and it would be very useful to know where your evidence is for that, because some of the suggestions I had was that, actually, more people felt confident going out knowing that other people around them were vaccinated.
On waiting lists, we are in a really difficult situation, and it's not just here in Wales, but it's across the whole of the UK and, indeed, across the world. We had to take measures to protect the public. There are consequences to that and, of course, we're going to have a huge job of work to do to address that backlog. That's why we will be publishing our plan in April. We have an integrated medium-term plan process. We've got a system now where we're waiting for the health boards to submit their plans. We'll be assessing those plans and we'll be seeing if they marry up to the direction and the ambition that we've got as a Welsh Government. There are plenty of things that I think we would like to learn from other areas. I know you're very keen to see regional approaches. That's something that I'm also keen to see. But I think these are things that we need to consider.
In relation to vaccination of children, the JCVI has yet to publish its report, although there are lots of clues in The Guardian and other places where there seems to have been lots of leaks come out. It's a shame and it's perplexing to understand why that has not been published yet. But I have seen a copy of that advice and we will be commencing the roll-out of vaccinations for five to 11-year-olds. Of course, it's likely to have been a very difficult decision for the JCVI, because generally, children have a milder illness and fewer hospitalisations, but, of course, they have to balance that against the prospect of missing school. So, we have to consider very different issues when it comes to the vaccination of children as young as five years old, of course, so we'll be in a position where we will expect those children to be accompanied by an adult. There will be a need for informed consent, but there will be an opportunity for siblings, for example, to be brought at the same time. Most of this will be done—in fact, all of it will be done in health centres rather than in schools, so I hope that that is helpful to you.