Part of 1. Questions to the Minister for Finance and Local Government – in the Senedd at 1:46 pm on 9 March 2022.
Again, thank you for this question. There is a range of aspects to that question, which I'll try and cover briefly, but I'm obviously keen to have a further discussion with Members, if they are interested, on particular elements of it. So, we've done a lot of analysis across Welsh Government to understand what the impacts might be, both of sanctions, but also of the wider situation in respect of the crisis. So, we've looked at energy markets and overall inflation. The effects in Wales, in terms of our exposure to gas and oil from Russia, is less than elsewhere in Europe: under 5 per cent of our gas, for example, comes from Russia, with the rest coming from the North sea and Norway, as well as liquefied natural gas from countries such as Qatar and the US. But, of course, energy prices are set globally, so we will inevitably be feeling the impact of some of that, and we've done some additional work looking at what the impact would be on the economy if the price of a barrel of oil increased over $100. We've looked at various different scenarios, and what the impact might be, and what the choices then might be from the Bank of England in respect of interest rates and so on.
We've also looked at food in particular. The First Minister took some questions yesterday in respect of prices and what that will mean for the ability to maintain prices here in Wales. We are, I think, likely to see prices increase as a result of the situation. Fertiliser: again, the FM spoke to that yesterday. We've also done some research regarding metals and diamonds. There are some Wales-specific issues here, for example in the automotive industry. The Welsh Automotive Forum has spoken to members who supply components to Russian car manufacturing facilities, and so we're waiting to understand what the impacts might be there on sales and potentially further impacts beyond that. And obviously the aerospace industry—around half of the world's titanium for aerospace comes from Russia, and aerospace and the automotive industry are both really important industries for us here in Wales. So, we've done some analysis around that as well. So, we have these large potential impacts on the economy, but then also impacts on individual households. And I won't repeat the package of support that we've put in place, but Members will be familiar now with the package in respect of fuel prices and the £150 payment and so on.