Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:27 pm on 20 September 2022.
Diolch yn fawr. There is a huge pressure on our services at the moment. I'll just give you a sense of the difficulty we have, in particular in relation to delayed transfers of care. We're at a point now where we have around 1,200 people ready to leave our hospitals. Because of the difficulty of getting them out because the support system is not quite there in the communities, we have around 1,200 people waiting, which is quite a high proportion. So, it is a very difficult system, when it's clearly difficult to recruit to our care service despite the fact that we in Wales are paying the real living wage. Robust plans are in place already for winter, we have those within the IMTPs, and those I have signed off, so we have those plans already.
You asked about excess deaths, and, obviously, one death is too many when it comes to excess deaths when we weren't expecting it. My understanding is that our knowledge and analytics team have looked at the excess deaths in terms of ONS. These may be slightly older figures than you have, but certainly in England, it suggested excess deaths were at 14.5, and in Wales 11.7, so there's a slight difference there. Whereas in England deaths per 100,000 were at 217, per 100,000 in Wales it was 212. So, there's a slight difference. When people come and talk about these statistics, there is a standardised mortality figure that is usually used, so you do have to go into the detail of what exactly they are suggesting here.
I think the thing to bear in mind is the fact that Wales does have an older and sicker population. We've had some interesting evidence recently to suggest that, in terms of numbers of people who contracted the virus, we were significantly lower than other parts of England, but when it came to hospitalisation, our figures were higher. So, I think we need to just be aware that, actually, if that older, sicker population contract the virus, they are in deeper trouble. That's what we know about this virus: that it really hones in on those most vulnerable people.