Diolch yn fawr, Dirprwy Lywydd. I provided an update to Members regarding COVID-19 and winter pressures on 20 September. I highlighted the fact that we are preparing for a third winter of living with COVID, but that the situation regarding respiratory viruses is more uncertain than previous years because seasonal patterns have been significantly disrupted due to the pandemic. The latest rise in prevalence demonstrates that COVID-19 has not gone away, and we need to be vigilant and prepared. According to the latest Office for National Statistics coronavirus infection survey, the proportion of people in Wales testing positive for COVID-19 in the week ending 26 September was around 1 in 50 people.

To help prepare our communities and the health and social care systems for what could be a challenging winter, today, we are publishing our public health approach to respiratory viruses for autumn/winter 2022-23. Alongside this publication, we will also be providing further technical advice on scenarios and actions needed within the health and social care system. This will further supplement the existing planning commenced many months ago in the NHS, as set out in the NHS planning framework. So, planning for seasonal peaks in pressure is a year-round exercise, and there's been further development of interventions that will enable resilience within urgent and emergency care services this winter.

The technical advice on winter 2022-23 models, also published today, will further aid the ongoing NHS planning in Wales through the provision of four COVID-19 models. Over the previous two winter periods, we have seen low levels of flu and respiratory syncytial viruses circulating relative to a typical year, and that was mostly likely due to restrictions in place in relation to COVID-19. There is, therefore, much uncertainty for the winter of 2022-23, as those restrictions are no longer in place. Now, these winter models for COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses explore a 'what if' situation should these viruses come together, and that will help NHS planners and other partners prepare for a reasonable worst-case and COVID-urgent scenario, along with other pressures and challenges.

I'd like to take the opportunity today to highlight the key messages in our public health approach to respiratory viruses for autumn/winter 2022-23. Now, central to the approach that we've taken is our objective to protect the most vulnerable in our society from serious disease. This remains a key focus when we're operating in a COVID-stable environment, whereby we expect further waves of infection but we do not expect these to place continued, unsustainable pressure on the health and social care system. However, as we're aware, circumstances can change rapidly with a sustained increase in cases or the impact of future variants in terms of transmissibility, immune response and vaccine escape and severity. We'll need to act rapidly to respond to changing circumstances, and this could include introducing other measures and stronger advice on protective behaviours, including, for example, the use of face coverings and introducing additional testing to further protect the more vulnerable. 

We've set out plans to deliver, in partnership with Public Health Wales, an effective, combined surveillance system that provides timely information to aid effective risk assessment and risk management decisions to reduce harm from COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses. This will be more critical this winter, with the end of mass community testing for COVID-19 in April 2022 and the uncertainties on potential impact for both COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses. We've also outlined our tried-and-tested processes for managing outbreaks of communicable diseases, including respiratory viruses.