I was pleased to see the Member at our tax conference, which took place last week. I hope that he enjoyed it as much as I did. I think one of the really interesting sessions was with representatives from Scotland and Northern Ireland, where they considered the different risks and opportunities of the different fiscal frameworks that we have.

The devolution of the thresholds would allow us to have more policy flexibility, and it would enable us to determine our own approach to Welsh rates of income tax in a different way, recognising income distribution in Wales and the importance of a more progressive system, where those who are able to afford it pay more tax. However, it would be difficult to devolve the thresholds without devolving the whole of the tax base. I think that that would then, potentially, increase greatly our exposure to risk via revenues and the associated block grant adjustment. I think that we need to be very careful that we have the capacity and the flexibility to manage those kinds of risks. We only have to look at the experience in Scotland to see that the exposure to the whole of the tax base can really lead to some budgetary issues. Remember that black hole that we talked about a few years ago when the reconciliation was taking place in terms of the projected tax take and what actually was received? So, there are potential risks.

It is true though to say that our tax base does differ from England's. We do have that higher proportion of basic rate taxpayers. Pay is also lower here in Wales. For full-time employees, the median weekly pay in April 2022 was 94 per cent of the UK average. I think that we'd need to consider all of those factors in relation to the suggestion to devolve the thresholds, because there would be considerable risks that come alongside that. Also, as I said at the tax conference, devolution of Welsh rates of income tax itself is a fairly new thing. We've only been collecting it for a couple of years. I think that letting it bed in whilst also exploring what the future looks like would be the sensible way forward, and there's a role for the commission to look at that.