The next item will be a statement by the Minister for Climate Change on climate change and the final statement on carbon budget 1. I call on the Minister for Climate Change to make the statement—Julie James.

Diolch, Llywydd. Llywydd, last month, world leaders came together at COP27 to focus on the climate emergency. Following difficult negotiations, there was both hope and disappointment. Hope came from the agreement for developed nations to create a fund as early as next year to cover loss and damage. The fund will support the most vulnerable nations and communities in their battles with the impacts of climate change. But disappointment came from not making further progress on the phasing out of fossil fuels, which the Welsh Government committed to at COP26 by joining the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance.

This week is the start of COP15, not a climate COP, but a biodiversity COP, which I will be attending. The climate and nature emergencies are intertwined and are not some distant future global crisis. This combined crisis is already upon us, and our vision, ambition and action must achieve a better, fairer and greener future for us all.

In June, my written statement to the Senedd highlighted the publication of the latest greenhouse gas emission data. In the statement, I said the raw data indicated we had met our carbon budget 1 targets. I also committed to publishing our legislative final statement for our first budgetary period in December. Today, I am pleased to confirm that the Welsh Government has met both the first carbon budget and the 2020 emissions reduction interim target. Following advice from the Climate Change Committee, we set an interim target for 2020 at a 27 per cent reduction in emissions compared to our baseline year of 1990. The final net Welsh emissions account for our 2020 interim target saw a 39 per cent reduction. Therefore, the 2020 interim target has not only been met, but surpassed. The first carbon budget was set at an average reduction of 23 per cent emission reduction compared to our baseline year. The final net Welsh emissions account saw a 28 per cent reduction. Therefore, our first carbon budget has also been met and also surpassed.

I am therefore publishing Welsh Government's 'final statement' for the budgetary period and interim year as required under the Environment (Wales) Act 2016. This final statement is the first of its kind for Wales and is a factual report looking back at carbon budget 1. It sets out our accounting methodology and the reasons why we met our targets. Importantly, the final statement contains an annex that estimates the consumption emissions footprint for Wales for the carbon budget period. We estimate consumption emissions fluctuated slightly, with a small increase of approximately 2 per cent, over the budget period that the data is available. However, overall since 2001, the first available year of data, consumption emission estimates have shown a general downward trend, dropping approximately 27 per cent. Due to availability of statistics, it's not been possible to calculate the footprint for the entire budget period. The report covers the period of 2016-19 and there will therefore be an update to the annex in 2023 once the data is received and analysed. Whilst this statement is positive, I recognise there are challenges ahead, and we need to do much more to achieve our second carbon budget for 2021-26. Now is not the time for complacency, and we must maintain our focus on delivery of Net Zero Wales.

I am therefore pleased to also inform the Senedd that I will be launching a call for evidence on a just transition to net zero in Wales. Our first policy in Net Zero Wales committed to transitioning to net zero with social justice at its heart. We are now seeking evidence to identify where negative impacts and opportunities might appear and where they may aggregate. We aim to gather evidence on best practice. We are also seeking evidence of need for our communities, economy and infrastructure, so we can see where support can be targeted to ensure a just transition. Today, the Government is publishing the 'Welsh Government's Net Zero Strategic Plan', which will set out how it plans to achieve net zero as an organisation, and the Minister for Economy will be publishing a net-zero skills plan next year. These are all important actions in Net Zero Wales.

Of course, the climate is already changing as the increasing number of devastating weather events globally proves. They provide a sobering reminder that as well as reducing emissions, we also need to build resilience to a changing climate. Climate change is bringing risks to our communities, infrastructure, natural resources and health that we must address. Therefore, finally, today, I am pleased to inform the Senedd that I'm also publishing a progress report on our current five-year national climate change adaptation plan, 'Prosperity for All: A Climate Conscious Wales'. The report shows the huge amount of work we are doing already to address the risks arising from climate change, but, as with our climate mitigation efforts, we must do more, and we will.

Our values and guiding principles set out in the programme for government put social justice and the climate emergency at the heart of our actions for this Senedd term, and it is of upmost importance to me that we deliver for the people of Wales and the future of our children. In terms of today's publications, final checks and typesetting is taking place and the final documents will be laid in the Senedd and uploaded to the website by the end of this term. Diolch.

The Deputy Presiding Officer (David Rees) took the Chair.

I would like to start by congratulating the people of Wales, and thank you for statement, Minister. It has taken a nationwide effort to achieve the first carbon budget and the 2020 emissions reduction interim target, and, as such, everyone involved should be proud. 'Prosperity for All: A Low Carbon Wales' was your plan for meeting the first plan carbon budget 2016-20 and the 2020 interim target. It included 100 policies and proposals across ministerial portfolios. However, we know that reductions were dominated by the power sector, which was responsible for 85 per cent of the total decrease in emissions from 2016 to 2018. In fact, the slow-down and closure of Aberthaw coal-fired power station contributed to 55 per cent of the total fall in emissions between 2016 and 2020. So, bearing in mind the previous over-reliance on reductions in the power sector, can you provide an update as to whether we're seeing a similar pattern during the current carbon budget, and, if so, what urgent action will be taken to try and deliver widespread reductions? 

As you know, 'Net Zero Wales Carbon Budget 2 (2021 to 2025)' set out 123 policies and proposals from the Welsh Government. I know that you have said that you'll be publishing a progress report on your current five-year national climate change adaption plan, but can you outline today how many of the 123 policies and proposals are actually on their way to being actioned so far? Only by considering this broader picture and shouldering our global responsibility can we truly protect our precious world for future generations.

The Committee on Climate Change 2020 report, 'Land use: Policies for a Net Zero UK', highlighted that agricultural emissions should not be offshored. To quote:

'Achieving emissions reduction should not be at the expense of producing less food in the UK and increasing imports. As the UK is a relatively low-greenhouse gas producer of ruminant meat'— compared to global averages—

'this risks exporting emissions abroad and increasing consumption emissions.'

Now, on 9 November, this Welsh Parliament unanimously voted in favour of a motion that called on the Welsh Government to, for example, develop a more self-sufficient food system for Wales, use procurement levers to create a requirement for supply chains to be free from deforestation, conversion and social exploitation as part of the transition to utilising locally produced and sustainable goods, and also to support Welsh farmers to eliminate imported livestock feed that is linked to deforestation and habitat conversion overseas, and, also, to support international projects and initiatives aimed at preserving and restoring forests in the main commodity-producing countries.

So, my final question, Minister: what progress have you made on those actions that we voted for you to undertake? And bearing in mind what we now know about the emissions caused by Wales through the goods and services we consume, which projects are you going to support in the main commodity-producing countries? What progress have you made in establishing a way of interpreting the 30x30 target? Thank you. Diolch.

Thank you, Janet. I completely agree with you that much of what we've achieved, of course, is only possible with the people and the communities of Wales, and that means communities in a geographical sense but also communities of interest like, for example, our businesses, our industries, our agricultural sector and so on. So, I completely join with you in that—I'd do it more loudly, only, as you can hear, I'm struggling a little bit with my voice today.

In terms of the sector emissions, we've got five sectors—so, power, transport, industry, waste and fluorinated gases—that have seen strong declining emissions over the period. You're quite right that some of that is because we've closed Aberthaw power station, and that, obviously, makes it even more pressing that we manage to close the remaining fossil fuel power stations, including the gas-fired power stations in Wales, as soon as is humanly possible. Therefore, making sure that we take full advantage of the renewable opportunities right across Wales is where we need to be.

So, two sectors, in buildings and agriculture, have seen more limited change in emissions over the period. The—I always have to look this up—LUCF, which is the land-use change and forestry sector, has seen a substantial decrease in the size of the sink it provides over the period, although it remains a sink and achieved the anticipated contribution.

The emissions reductions are driven by changing patterns in Wales's consumption and production activities, which are tracked by 57 of the tier 2 indicators. You asked me which ones were on target and which ones weren't. Twenty eight of the activity indicators are green, including major increases in the proportion of electricity generation from renewables, major decreases in the proportion of waste sent to landfill and a strong decrease in transport energy use and industrial energy use.

The sectors seeing the highest proportions of green-rated tier 2 indicators were power at 89 per cent, for reasons we've just discussed; waste at 75 per cent, which is due to Wales's stellar performance in recycling, again thanks to the people of Wales; and in the public sector, driven by our ambition for the public sector to decarbonise by 2030. Of the remaining activity indicators, seven were red, 11 amber and 11 could not be rated.

The sectors seeing the lowest proportions of green-rated tier 2 indicators were the land-use change and forestry sectors, buildings and agriculture. So, buildings have done particularly badly and agriculture is only at 17 per cent. What that's telling us, Janet, is that we need to redress the balance, to some extent, about how we address some of these things.

This isn't aimed in any way at berating our farmers, for example, but in agriculture, if we just look at that, we've had a number of supportive schemes for farmers through the red meat development programme, dairy improvement programme, sustainable production grant and Farming Connect. There was a 6 per cent increase observed in the total agricultural area from 2016 to 2020, and a small decrease in agricultural land area from 2018 to 2020, but output per hectare of land increased by 3 per cent. So, there are some really complicated statistics involved in this.

There has been delivery in some key policy areas, and overall emissions have declined over the carbon budget 1 period, but emissions have not declined at the rate anticipated in the Climate Change Committee's pathway, and the anticipated contribution, therefore, to the 2020 pathway is not yet met. Having said that, though, the reason that we've introduced the sustainable farming scheme is to help our agricultural sector to do what it needs to do to get to where it needs to be.

The other sector is buildings, which I anticipate my colleague and friend Jenny Rathbone is about to ask me about, so I'll answer her on that, but, basically, we need to do a lot more in retrofitting our buildings as well. Diolch.

Minister, I'm sorry to hear that you're unwell; hope you feel better soon. This, indeed, is a momentous moment and it does need to be celebrated; although it's jarring, of course, to be looking at the very bleak picture that we're looking at globally, I think that, obviously, it would be remiss not to do that. The UN has concluded that there are no credible pathways in place at present at least to limit global heating to below 1.5 degrees, and the need to accelerate decarbonisation plans is so urgent because of that. I think that there’s this catastrophe that’s tremendous on the one hand and the window of opportunity that we have is so small, and it’s the difference between those two things that is so stark.

I’m glad that, because of the co-operation agreement, we’ve helped bring about more of a possibility of reaching net zero by 2035. I’m glad of the commitment to establish Ynni Cymru, but again, the backdrop of this globally, and also domestically, actually—there are worrying trends closer to home, like the slowdown in renewable energy development in Wales since 2015, the cost-of-living crisis, which is just having an impact on absolutely every element of policy, the constraints on our grid capacity, and the fact that we still await further devolution of powers over the rail network and managing the Crown Estate. Minister, could you provide an update, please, on the Welsh future energy grid for net zero project, and tell us whether progress has been made to address the slowdown in renewable energy development since 2015? I’d be grateful to know if the Welsh Government has, particularly since June of this year, raised the issue of a lack of grid capacity in Wales in the relevant inter-ministerial forums, and if so, what the response has been, please.

As well as that, I know that on Wales’s net-zero plan, the Welsh Government’s modelling suggests that Wales is on track—and this has come up already—to meet carbon budget 2; there’s a 37 per cent reduction in that, and it will achieve a 44 per cent reduction against the baseline. You’ve committed to an updated budget improvement plan and you’ll consider assessments of the carbon impact of spending decisions through that, and how they could be made more robust. Could you explain, please, Minister, if the anticipated hits to your Government’s spending power because of this cost-of-living crisis will have any impact on the budget improvement plan?

On transport targets, Minister, do you agree that the lack of full devolution of this area to Wales is hampering our efforts to achieve targets in terms of reducing car usage and so on, and that the fact that this isn’t devolved, after all, has inhibited the development of an effective pan-Wales rail network, and we’ve missed out on untold money in Barnett consequentials from the high speed 2 scheme?

There’s one final area I’d like to cover briefly—it has come up already—on land usage. I know the Government has plans to increase woodland creation rates substantially by 2050; I note the concern that’s already been raised about this, about the reduction in carbon capture from land usage between 2019 and 2020. I would add my concern to that already expressed. I wouldn’t wish the Minister to have to repeat what she’s already said, but if there’s anything further that she’d like to say on that, could you tell us of any assessment that’s been made of the implications in Wales of the UK Government’s proposals for their habitats regulations assessment process, please? Diolch.

Yes, thank you very much, Delyth, for that series of things. So, just going through them in order, yes, we absolutely bring up the grid issues every single time I meet anybody even remotely relevant to it in a ministerial group—we bring it up. I’m in the queue to see the new energy Minister. I hope he stays in post long enough for me to actually see this one—the last one left post before I managed it. We are looking for a reassurance that the holistic network design that was discussed with the Minister, which seems like years ago now, but was only a few months ago, goes ahead for Wales. We’ve discussed in this Chamber many times why we need that network design to go ahead and why we need the upgrading of the grid. It is absolutely the case, and every single renewable developer we speak to, and the Crown Estate themselves, agree with us on the case that, if we want to onshore the very significant gigawatt capability of the Celtic sea into south Wales, which we certainly need to do, then we need the grid capacity to be able to do that. We are pushing with some alacrity to make sure that that happens, and there’ll be a number of round-tables and interventions that we are taking part in, and indeed hosting, in January and February of next year, trying to make sure that we’re the first movers in some of those areas, and ensuring that our ports are in prime position to be able to take advantage of what will be a significant opportunity.

In terms of the cost-of-living crisis, this is one of the conundrums, isn’t it, of the world? So, we are trying to put money into people’s pockets in a short-term way for the cost-of-living crisis, because some people simply cannot make ends meet, and at the same time we are also, of course, promoting energy efficiency and adaptations, so the better your house is, the more adapted it is to climate resilience, the less energy you use, and the more money there is in your pocket. If you were lucky enough to be able to afford to put solar panels on your roof, then you are getting a benefit from that.

We’ve also been pushing the UK Government to, frankly, come away from its ridiculous market based on the marginal price of gas, and to split the renewables market away from that. Instead, unfortunately, they've come up with a plan to windfall tax the renewables companies, which seems completely—. Well, it's not what we would have done, that's for sure. We keep pushing that all the time and also, obviously, the renewables do that. But it's right around the coast of Britain. Wales has really excellent renewables, but, actually, Britain has really excellent renewables, so it makes no sense to me that the Government, acting as the English Government in that regard, doesn't see the opportunity for that. We certainly do push that, and I was in an inter-ministerial group only on Monday where it was amongst the things discussed.

The other thing discussed was the threat to the habitats regulations—the EU Bill. We were assured by the Minister who was at that meeting—. Unfortunately, it was not Thérèse Coffey, and I would like to put it on record, Deputy Llywydd, that we would like the Secretary of State to actually attend the meetings, and not send junior Ministers. But the Minister there was at great pains to tell us that the assumption is going to be that things stay in place unless there's a real reason for them not to. It's very difficult to understand what real reason there would be not to maintain the habitats directive in place. Nevertheless, we will be keeping a very watchful eye on what happens, because otherwise we will have to undergo a very rapid programme to make sure that those habitats regulations stay in force in Wales. But I can assure you that that is our intention.

In terms of the land use issue, one of the reasons I'm going to COP15 is because biodiversity totally depends on our ability to make the best use of our land. These carbon sinks are not just forests, just to be clear—these are the peatlands, these are the wildflower meadows, these are the long grasslands where the curlews nest right across Wales that we need interconnectivity between and that we need as habitats. In doing so, we get the double whammy, don't we? We get the increased protection of our biodiversity, but we also get the carbon sink entirely necessary for us to withstand this oncoming onslaught.

And finally, Jenny Rathbone. 

Thank you very much. I too congratulate you and all your stakeholders for achieving both the interim and the net emissions targets, because I really think that's excellent. I look forward to studying the net-zero strategic action plan you commit to publish by the end of this week, and particularly the annex to the final statement, because I want to ask you what's in there about the food carbon footprint that Wales has, because that obviously will help inform us how we reduce that, because it is the single biggest contributor that individuals make, as opposed to large-scale decisions made by Government. 

I agree that there's no room for complacency in all this, and that the planet faces a really desperate situation if we don't act now. The Equality and Social Justice Committee's report, 'Fuel poverty and the Warm Homes Programme', which we published in May, called for a clear long-term strategy for decarbonisation to give industry the confidence it needs to invest in skills, technology and people. We also asked the net-zero skills action plan to be published no later than July. Now we're told it won't even be published by the end of December. I'm underwhelmed by that, and I want to know if not this month, then when exactly next year, because we really, really do need that to pull that whole decarbonisation of our housing together.

Thank you very much, Jenny. One of the things you'll see when we publish the plan by the end of this week is a very useful infographic, which, Deputy Llywydd, I happen to have a rush copy of in front of me. What that does is go through some of the statistics I was responding to Janet Finch-Saunders using. It sets out very neatly which indicators are red and amber and why, and what we need to do about them. One of those is obviously agriculture and food. You'll be able to see that there's a range of green, amber and some that are not yet rated. I did speak in my statement a little bit about some of the data that we're still getting in, and we will be publishing an addendum once the data has been analysed. 

One of the big issues for us is to reduce our carbon footprint in the production of food, and to make sure that our carbon sink stays in place, because, really worryingly, the carbon sink, although it has performed as we would have wanted for carbon budget 1, is clearly reducing. And so, one of the big pushes for me to go to COP15 and to make sure that we're playing a full role there is to make sure that, here in Wales, we can maintain and increase the carbon sink that we are operating, not only for our own purposes but for the purposes of the rest of the globe. That is why we make no bones at all about pushing the national forest, the forestation plans, but also the peatland restoration programme, which I'm very pleased to have been able to triple very recently. Also we're about to, combined with the UK Government, ban the sale of peat in its entirety, and not before time either. So, these things are very important and people really need to get behind them.

But we need to have good-quality locally produced food. I mean, obviously the lower the carbon mileage the better, but actually, the higher the nutritional quality the better for our farmers, so it's an absolutely virtuous circle. What's not to like about it? And just to make the point that Lord Deben actually made at the beginning of Climate Change Week, and it's a controversial point as well: this isn't about a plant-based diet; this is about a sustainable diet, and a sustainable diet is one that understands how food is produced and makes choices accordingly. So, I'm afraid if you eat smashed avocado on your Sunday toast, then you are in a very water-intensive, very climate change-unadapted territory. You would be far better off to have a rasher of local bacon—and I speak as somebody who's been a vegetarian all my life. It is very important to understand where food comes from, how it's produced, and how it gets to our table, and in that way, you will benefit local producers of food.

The other thing to say is that not all food that comes from far away is bad. Actually, global trade that supports women's co-operatives and fair trade, and decently produced food abroad, also helps us fight a global climate, because it helps local people to adapt to what they need to be able to produce and export, in order to make their own particular neighbourhood and area more sustainable. I'm very proud of the work that Wales has done in the Wales and Africa programme and the reforestation programmes that we've had in Mbale. That's a very good example—that's far away, but, actually, the global trade has increased the carbon sink of the whole planet, and the locally produced food and better-produced coffee, immeasurably. So, when you enjoy your morning coffee, and it's been produced in Mbale, you'll be able to know that, despite the fact that it's travelled a long way to you, it's nevertheless been sustainably produced by farmers who are properly paid to do it. I think that is the sort of thing that we need in a labelling regime and in a purchasing policy. My friend Rebecca Evans and myself have been discussing the procurement policies for the Welsh public sector, based on that kind of virtuous circle, for quite some time.

Diolch, Gweinidog. We will look forward to seeing copies of your infographics.