Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 2:30 pm on 14 February 2023.
The report says that we need to do more to look after the roads we already have, and pay more attention to supporting the movement of freight. I’ve today published a written statement on a review of our approach to road maintenance, and we will also be publishing a freight plan later in the year. We need roads, but we need to remember that roads are not just for cars. The panel said we need to give greater priority to buses and active travel networks in road schemes.
The report also says that, where there are road safety concerns, we should be looking first to reduce speeds in collision blackspots. And when we do take forward a new scheme, we should opt for the one with the lowest environmental impact. About a third of the carbon generated from a road scheme comes from the materials used in constructing, lighting and maintaining it over its whole lifecycle: steel, concrete, asphalt, water—everything that goes into a road scheme has a significant carbon footprint of its own. And we need to reduce this embodied carbon, through innovation, but also through making the most of what we have.
The central argument presented by the roads review panel is that we can’t build our way out of congestion. When looked at in isolation, there is often a case to be made for a by-pass or an extra lane, but, cumulatively, it exacerbates the problem. In the short term, creating new road space often speeds up a car journey and makes it more attractive than a public transport alternative. This encourages more people to drive. But over time, this generates more journeys, with people travelling longer distances. This then creates extra traffic and congestion. It also results in retail and residential developments popping up close to the new junctions, as we have seen right across Wales. And these are places, usually, that have few public transport or active travel options, and so people have little choice but to get to them by car, and this produces even more traffic.
As people drive more, fewer people use public transport, which results in fewer services being viable, leaving people with even fewer alternatives. This disproportionately disadvantages women and people on low incomes, who we know from the data are the most dependent on public transport. For those who feel forced into running a car to access work, the costs can be punitive. Studies have shown that the poorest households can spend up to a quarter of their income on transport costs, putting them into transport poverty. Not only has our approach been running counter to our climate policy and our planning policy, but it has also been running counter to our social justice policies, and that has to change.
Llywydd, our approach for the last 70 years is not working. As the review points out, the by-pass that was demanded to relieve congestion often ends up leading to extra traffic, which, in time, brings further demands for extra lanes, wider junctions and more roads. Round and round we go, emitting more and more carbon as we do it. This is an internationally recognised trend that academics call 'induced demand'. And the panel report says very clearly that schemes that create extra road capacity for cars should not be supported. Instead, they recommend greater attention should be given to schemes that focus on demand management, improvements in public transport, and active travel. This, they say, will help to reduce non-essential traffic and make capacity available for essential road users, including freight operators.
We have accepted the report’s case for change. We will not get to net zero unless we stop doing the same thing over and over. Where we can create an easier alternative to driving, let's do so. It's an approach that will bring multiple benefits, and it will help those who have no alternative to the car to go about their business. That’s the best way to address congestion and costs for businesses in the short term. And in the longer term, economists have warned us that the knock-on consequences of rising temperatures will trigger annual falling rates of gross domestic product of between 5 per cent and 7 per cent, bringing profound harm to jobs and investment. So, there is no long-term conflict between the environment and the economy. Our policies will help both. We need both.
The national transport delivery plan that we are publishing today lists the road schemes that we will continue to develop over the next five years. Where the roads review panel has recommended a scheme should not proceed, we will not be progressing with that scheme as planned. But where there is an agreed transport problem, we will work with the scheme sponsors to identify a solution that meets the new tests for investment.
Our new roads policy makes clear that we will continue to invest in new and existing roads, but, to qualify for future funding, the focus should be on minimising carbon emissions, not increasing capacity, not increasing emissions through higher vehicle speeds, and not adversely affecting ecologically valuable sites.
For those roads that are designed to link to sites of economic development, the report has made a series of suggestions, and I have asked Councillor Anthony Hunt, the leader of Torfaen council, and Councillor Llinos Medi, the leader of Ynys Môn council, to work with us to find a practical way of allowing for growth sites to go forward that is consistent with our planning and transport policies.
Llywydd, let’s remember what Julie James and I said when we took up our posts: in this decade, Wales has to make greater cuts in emissions than we have in the whole of the last three decades combined. Greater cuts in the next 10 years than we've managed in the whole of the last 30. That’s what the science says we need to do. We know what’s coming. Our task is to futureproof Wales.
I would urge Members to read the roads review panel report in full. None of this is easy, but neither is the alternative. The UN general secretary has warned that, unless we act decisively now, we face a climate catastrophe. I say this with all sincerity to all Members: if we are to declare a climate and nature emergency, legislate to protect the well-being of future generations, which we've done, and put into law a requirement to reach net zero by 2050, we simply have to be prepared to follow through, and I'm very grateful to the roads review panel for helping us set out a way to do that. Diolch.