Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 3:44 pm on 21 September 2016.
A very commendable brevity on the part of my honourable friend. [Laughter.] I’m not sure I shall be able to replicate it, but what one must do, I think, in all these debates on the single market is to keep matters in perspective. Exports to the EU amount to about—talking about the UK now—5 per cent of GDP and, of that 5 per cent, 65 per cent of the trade would be subject to a tariff level of 4 per cent of the maximum if we came to no agreement whatever with the EU. So, only about one third of that—1.5 per cent of GDP—would be subject to an average level of tariffs of about 15 per cent. We’re not talking about a game-changing set of figures here. Of course it would produce some transitional problems for some industries if there were no trade deal to be done with the EU, but it’s massively in the interests of the EU to come to a free-trade arrangement with us. The deficit in our trade with the EU this year will be approaching £100 billion a year.
If we just take the example of cars, the deficit in cars alone is £23 billion and, of that £23 billion, £20 billion is with Germany alone. We buy 820,000 cars from Germany in this country every year. Is it conceivable that the German Government is going to facilitate a situation where there is no successor trade deal with the UK? I just don’t believe it is possible. Germany is not just the motor of the European economy, because half of the economy of the EU are basket cases, largely because they’re in the eurozone, but the German economy is the motor of the European economy and, of course, it is also the engine house of political decision making in the European Union as well. Of course, Chancellor Merkel is now in very severe political difficulties in her own country because of her own failure to recognise the political problems that are caused by uncontrolled mass immigration, both into and within the EU. This is something that simply has to be recognised. I cannot understand the blinkered approach of Plaid Cymru and a few in the Labour Party as well who seem to think that mass immigration is not a problem. So, it is inconceivable in my view that the Government—any Government—following this referendum result, could possibly adopt a policy of full membership of the single market, because, as Simon Thomas pointed out, Lee Waters is in fantasy land if he thinks that you can be in the single market without having uncontrolled immigration. So, to be like Norway, a part of the single market, also implies that you have to have free movement of peoples within the EU and any countries that are in agreement with it.
So, I think that we’ve got to see that the real advantage of the options that the referendum gives us is not membership of the single market, but actually our freedom to trade with the rest of the world and to strike trade deals with other countries, as Mark Isherwood has pointed out. So, what this is all about is freedom for our Government to decide for ourselves the policy that is going to govern our own people and the laws that are made in this country so that our own politicians, who are answerable and accountable to the electorate at elections, are actually responsible for making those decisions.
So, this is a great opportunity. There are challenges, of course, but the challenges are minor compared with the opportunities and therefore I welcome the conversion of the First Minister to UKIP policy on migration and I hope that this will infect other parties as well and that the Labour Government here in Cardiff will see the massive opportunities that are open to Wales as a result of the decision of the people, which was forced upon them on 23 June.