4. 3. Statement: The Draft Budget 2018-19

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 2:59 pm on 3 October 2017.

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Photo of Nick Ramsay Nick Ramsay Conservative 2:59, 3 October 2017

Cabinet Secretary, thank you for your statement on the draft budget and for the meeting you had with me earlier today. Can I also welcome the new way of doing the budget, with the changes that have been made to the format of this statement today and paving the way for tax devolution next year? This has been a key call from the Finance Committee, and from the Chair of the Finance Committee, for some time, with the advent next year of tax powers.

This budget is, as you’ve said, being formed against the backdrop of a new fiscal framework, which is ensuring additional revenue for the Welsh Government—revenue above what you would have received without the fiscal framework. I appreciate your comments about how, because of cutbacks, we are still, I think you said, 20 per cent down on funding. That is far better than the 27 per cent that we would have been facing without the advent of the fiscal framework, so that’s to be welcomed.

Can I firstly turn, though, to your announcement on the rates and bands of the new taxes, because that’s new information, information that I and the rest of the Chamber’s been calling for for a long time? The publication of that is good news and it is to be welcomed for those organisations that need to have stability and certainty when it comes to planning the tax landscape.

If I can turn to land transaction tax first, and the new starting threshold of £150,000, £25,000 higher than in England I believe you said, and £5,000, I believe, higher than in Scotland, that is to be welcomed. Welsh Conservatives have for a long time now been calling for additional help certainly for those first-time buyers in Wales and those at that end of the housing ladder, so that is to be welcomed. There was of course a nip in the tail, so to speak—a sting in the tail—in that that money does need to be recouped and you did announce that there would be a new higher rate. So, can I ask you what assessment has been made of the impact that that will have on the Welsh economy, particularly when it comes to the border areas of Wales? I think you said that Bangor University has been employed doing forecasting for the Welsh Government. Will you be publishing the details of that forecasting at any point, and will we be able to see the exact effect that that independent analysis believes those changes to bands will have on the economy? Clearly, this is just the start of tax devolution, so, over the months and years to come, this will become even more important.

You mentioned the land disposal tax as well and I think, in terms of the environmental benefits of adjusting that tax, you will have the support of most parties, if not all parties in this Chamber, and we want LDT to succeed as much as possible and indeed be better, if possible, than in other areas of the UK.

Now, you mentioned the tourist tax, and it would be remiss of me not to mention this. I hope that that’s just a working title and that that’s not going to go forward in the future. Now, clearly, it is not in the interests of anyone in this Assembly or anyone in Wales for us to discourage tourism. We know how dependent the Welsh economy is on tourism. It is one of the key pillars of the Welsh economy and it is therefore vitally important that not only does any tourist tax, if and when it is developed—[Interruption.] That not only does any tourist tax not have a negative impact in terms of the way that it is set out, but also that the perception is not given out by the Welsh Government, not created by the Welsh Government, that Wales is not open for business when it comes to our tourist economy. So, I think that you have given us an indication of the way you see taxation in Wales going, Cabinet Secretary. I think it’s very important that that is qualified as soon as possible and that people who want to come to Wales to visit, for whatever length of time that may be, are not discouraged from doing so, so we do need to see some clarity as soon as possible on that.

You said in opening your statement that this is very much giving the higher level, the bigger picture, of taxation. You expect detail to follow in the weeks and months to come, and the Finance Committee will no doubt be scrutinising the draft budget over that length of time. So, if I can turn to the way that this budget will deliver on the Welsh Government strategy, the ‘Prosperity for All’ strategy, the First Minister has said that this

‘would drive integration and collaboration across the Welsh public sector, and put people at the heart of improved service delivery.’

This is a noble aim to which I’m sure we would all aspire. With this in mind, can you tell us how this is reflected within the funding streams for this budget and what protections has the Cabinet Secretary—what protections have you made—to ensure certain important projects are ring-fenced within the streams?

Now, clearly, we have another deal before us between Labour and your partners in this budget, Plaid Cymru, something that we’ve got used to over recent years, something that Wales has had to get used to, whether it liked it or not, and part of a two-year budget deal that will tie the hands of the Welsh Government for that time. But will the Cabinet Secretary respond to Plaid Cymru’s claim that over 50 per cent of its spending commitments, or £500 million, have been secured in full or in part over the last two budgets? This doesn't really tally with comments you made over the weekend, so I would appreciate some clarification on this please, Cabinet Secretary. It’s vitally important that the people of Wales believe that this budget deal has been done in the best interests of Wales—in their best interests—and not something that has been rushed through for the sake of a quick political fix, which I’m sure you would want to avoid the accusation of.

Also, if Plaid’s comments are correct, how many spending commitments has the Welsh Government had to give up in order to accommodate Plaid support for this budget? And can you give us details of the commitments that have been shelved? Because, surely, as you would admit, Cabinet Secretary, something has to give. You’ve said that budgets are tight, so you can’t fund everything, so we’ve got a new agreement with Plaid Cymru. Which priorities of the Labour Party in Wales have had to be sidelined or shelved? If I can turn to the—