8. Will the First Minister provide an update on the Welsh Government's assessment of the impact of leaving the European Union on Islwyn? OAQ51805

Leaving the European Union will affect every community in Wales. In particular, jobs, business and public services in Islwyn, and, indeed, across Wales, will be critically dependent on securing full and unfettered access to the single market and a customs union, which are our top priorities.

Diolch. Leader of the house, David Lidington, UK Tory Government Minister for the Cabinet Office, speaking at Airbus in north Wales, offered to rewrite the alleged flagship Brexit Bill to address the concerns of the devolved administrations in Wales and Scotland. The First Minister of Wales in reply has stated that, as currently drafted, the EU withdrawal Bill allows the UK Government to take control of devolved policy areas, such as farming and fishing, once the UK has left the EU. This is an unacceptable attack on devolution in both Wales and Scotland. Leader of the house, what further actions can the Welsh Government take to ensure that the UK Tory Government respects the hard-fought devolution settlement to this Assembly? How can the Welsh Government safeguard the economic interests of the people of Islwyn, once the United Kingdom leaves the European Union?

The Member makes a very important point, and, of course, we've been in extended negotiations with the UK Government about the respect for the devolution settlement as indicated in the EU withdrawal Bill. We will be looking to bring forward a Bill—the continuity Bill—and I'm very pleased, myself, to see Steffan in the Chamber this afternoon. We'll bring forward that continuity Bill to ensure that the devolution settlement is properly reflected in the EU withdrawal Bill and thus we're able to protect our economy, our jobs and our future prospects.

Minister, last week, Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff University—[Interruption.] Well, yes, I listened. He told the Welsh Affairs Select Committee that Welsh consumers will benefit enormously from the lower prices as a result of competition and rising productivity resulting from—[Interruption.]

I do need to hear the Member, please. Carry on, Mohammad Asghar.

Thank you, Presiding Officer—resulting from leaving the customs union and the single market. He predicted that poorer households such as those in Islwyn would make even bigger gains. Why is the Welsh Government so dismissive and negative about the views of economists like Professor Minford and reluctant to recognise the economic opportunities resulting from Brexit for Wales?

Well, Professor Minford is a little of an outlier amongst economic professors. Actually, in fact, I think he is entirely alone in his analysis of Welsh economic prospects without the EU. Our economic analysis shows that, over the long term, our economic output could be up to 8 per cent to 10 per cent lower than otherwise if we leave the single market and are forced to trade under World Trade Organization rules. This is in line with other published economic analysis and the reports of the UK Government's own assessment. This is equivalent to around £1,500 to £2,000 a head. The impact on the UK's economy will hit the public finances available to provide public services, following a long period of sustained austerity. This will only make worse the continued challenge of delivering our priorities within the context of growing pressures and an ever-decreasing budget. Economic growth and jobs in Islwyn are being supported through multimillion-pound European Union funding schemes, including Working Skills for Adults, Bridges into Work, apprenticeships and the SMART business and innovation schemes. The benefits these schemes are creating for our communities, people and businesses demonstrate the need for replacement funding from the UK Government after we leave the EU. Otherwise, I am afraid Professor Minford will find himself, once again, on the wrong side of the academic argument.

Finally, Steffan Lewis.

Diolch, Llywydd. I deeply regret the new-found politicking and ducking and weaving on the question of the single market that was apparent yesterday in the UK Labour leader's speech on his vision for a future relationship with the European Union. There are real consequences to leaving the single market for real people. One of those will be that we will lose the right to benefit from clinical trials from the European Medicines Agency. Only EEA and EU member states benefit from clinical trials and treatments, so I'd like to have reassurance from the leader of the house—. And this isn't something you can achieve, by the way, through free and unfettered access; you have to be a member of the single market to benefit from EMA membership and for your citizens to benefit from the clinical trials. Can we have a commitment that you will robustly oppose any attempt by a Government of any colour in Westminster to deny Welsh citizens the access to the best cutting-edge treatment that they can be provided with?

Yes. I am very happy to categorically say that. We've never made any bones about the fact that we need to stay inside those arrangements. It's disastrous for research of all sorts—not just clinical research—across Wales and across the UK to be outside of those far-reaching partnership arrangements for that cutting-edge research. So, I'm very happy to say that that remains our position and we will be robustly defending it at whatever level.

Thank you, leader of the house.