I'd like to begin my contribution by indicating that the Welsh Conservatives will be supporting this Bill at Stage 1. However, we do so with a very long list of caveats and concerns that we would like to see addressed over the coming stages, and in the amendments that we will be intending to put forward.

We believe that the Government should be wise in legislating. You don't just legislate for legislation's sake. We have to be crystal clear as to what the gains will be of passing legislation that is targeted at a very, very small number of people, and we should remember, in all of our conversations, that alcohol in itself is not a problem. It is perfectly legitimate, and it is perfectly well used by a great many people throughout the world. The issue is that some people have a problem with how they deal with alcohol, and we need to be laser-like in our focus as to how we can support those people and put them back onto a way where they can have a much better outcome for their health in the long term.

Whilst reviewing this during the Stage 1 debate, one of the concerns that came to me—and I was very pleased to note that the Finance Committee also reiterated that—is that actually there is a lack of statistical evidence as to what the benefits will be of a minimum unit alcohol price. When I listened to the evidence before us, Cabinet Secretary, I had two thoughts. There was one group who have based a very large and very opinionated set of parameters, if you like, totally on modelling, and there was the opposite group, who were actually putting forward why we shouldn't do it, why we shouldn't go ahead. But they were very subjective in their evidence. What I didn't get any sense of was a real clear, 'Here is the evidence; you make your decision'. It was so opinionated, either one way or the other, throughout the whole of the evidence session, that I would like to try to flesh out in the next stage a much clearer sense of real, hard empirical research that shows where minimum unit pricing can really help to bring people off of a disastrous path in terms of their complex relationship with alcohol.

The Finance Committee actually said—and I'm quoting—that 

'there is no statistical evidence that introducing a MUP will lead to a reduction in alcohol consumption.'

Given what I said at the very beginning about when you make legislation you have to make it responsibly, you have to have a very clear view of what it is you're trying to achieve. That, I think, Cabinet Secretary, is one of the clear responsibilities that you as a Government must fulfil in the next stage of this Bill. We must be absolutely crystal clear as to what we're going to achieve and make sure we've got the evidence for it. If that evidence isn't there, we need to think long and hard about whether or not we should sit back and wait and see what the experiment in Scotland does before we follow it. And I do understand that there are a lot of other reasons why the Welsh Government wants to process this—because of the timescales connected with Brexit et cetera—but I think that it is our responsibility to look at that. [Interruption.] I'm sorry, please forgive me. I do think that we absolutely agree, the Welsh Conservatives—[Interruption.] I have water, thank you—with the response from CLAC and about how we should look at putting on the face of the Bill certain key parameters as to how we will move forward with this, and I'd like to see that explored in Stage 2 as the Government goes forward.

I would like us to have a very long, hard look at the substitution effect. I think that this is something that has been glossed over. Again, when we looked at the evidence base that we had coming before us, we asked as a committee, time and time again, that we should be able to find evidence from drugs charities and from other groups who deal with people who have substance misuse as to what the journey might be for somebody who has an addiction issue. There wasn't that evidence out there. It's something that people haven't done research on, which I personally did find quite extraordinary. There just wasn't enough hard-hitting stuff that could say that, if somebody is addicted to alcohol or has a complex relationship with alcohol, that enables them to go out and do binge drinking or any other harmful exercise with, they won't necessarily go on a journey that might bring them to another substance. I think that, during Stage 2, the Welsh Conservatives would like to see an awful lot more work done on that whole substitution theory. We went out and talked to the Huggard centre. We have talked to some of the other charities. The evidence must be there. Welsh Government: it is incumbent on you to go out and dig out that evidence, so that here in this legislature, we can make a really clear decision about whether or not this is going to actually target the people who most need it.

Finally—there are lots of points that I'd like to make, but I'm very aware that I'm running out of time—Presiding Officer, I would like to talk about the impact on family incomes for those just about managing. We talk about, as I've discovered—. I'll be honest with you: I didn't realise that the word 'cider'—I always thought that that meant it had to have an apple in it. We discovered that there are ciders out there that have never seen an apple, never been near an apple, and are just pure chemicals. These are the kinds of things that you are trying to eradicate through this Bill, and, you know, I think that's a very worthwhile aim. However, there are a lot of people who are only just managing who will go out and buy value brands. They are drinking responsibly. It is, you know, one of the enjoyments that they have in life. But, a value brand will also be really badly hit by the minimum unit alcohol pricing Bill. You could look at perhaps an older person who goes out and buys a four-pack of cider—not the ones that I don't think I'm allowed to mention that have never seen an apple, but the ones that are just above that, but are value brands. Their drinking bill would be increased by about £150 a year. These are people that don't have very much money, it's a very small pleasure, they are not doing anything wrong, and they are not being irresponsible. I think that, as Caroline may have mentioned in her contribution, we must make sure that this Bill is equitable and fair. It doesn't mean that those who have got money but drink irresponsibly can carry on doing it, and those who don't drink irresponsibly but for whom a little drink is a necessary part of their life—they end up being penalised unfairly. I think that that would defeat all of the objectives of equity that I would hope that the Welsh Government would want to promulgate. 

So, I do ask for your forgiveness for my inability to deliver this in a more quick and timely fashion. We will support it at this stage, but there are a lot more questions to be asked. Welsh Government: it is incumbent on you to provide some of these answers if you wish the Welsh Conservatives to continue to support this Bill to fruition.