The external affairs committee took evidence a couple of weeks ago from Professor John Bell, who is a leading legal expert based at Cambridge University. I think that what he had to say made it very clear to me that those who are campaigning for a second referendum to be put to the people of the United Kingdom are running out of time. Because, it is simply not possible for us to reverse a process that was started with the article 50 trigger, unless we also go through the process of consulting with the European Parliament and with the 27 other members of the European Union.

So, according to Professor Bell, the very last date that a referendum could be held is this November, because otherwise there is not time for the European Parliament to deliberate on whether they approve of that, were we to reverse the decision that was taken two years ago. Also, it would require us to obtain a unanimous vote by the other 27 Governments, which would mean a huge lobbying exercise with all these Governments that have frankly lost faith in us because of the way in which we've turned away from Europe. So, I would argue that D-day of 31 December 2020 looks inevitable.

I would like to confine the rest of my remarks to the bread-and-butter issues that the First Minister referred to, which is what most people are concerned about, rather than the minutiae of the constitutional issues that leaving the European Union poses. 

I think the hubris from the Prime Minister over the weekend, indicating that a lot of money could be invested in the national health service as a result of a Brexit dividend, is pure fantasy, because we have already spent most of the money that we might get back from the European Union. We're going to need it to set up the new regulatory agencies. We've currently relied on that work to be done by the EU institutions, and it's obviously much cheaper to do it in conjunction with another 27 countries than it is to do it on our own.

I want to look at the biggest bread-and-butter issue, which is food, and the substantial impact that Brexit has already had on the amount of money that households are having to pay for food simply because of the deterioration in the value of the pound. The UK imports approximately 40 per cent of the food we consume as a nation, and nearly all of it is from the European Union. We import £9 billion-worth of vegetables and fruit from Europe, compared with £1 billion-worth of fruit and vegetables that are grown in the United Kingdom. Ninety-five per cent of our fruit comes from abroad and half our vegetables are imported. If we were to not be able to stay in a customs union, that would lead to a massive spike in the price of vegetables and fruit because of the tariffs that would be imposed inevitably if we were to move to WTO arrangements. 

Looking ahead, though, we have opportunities to shape our future, because we currently subsidise all the foodstuffs we eat too much of—animal protein, fat, oils and sugar—and very few of the things we need to eat more of, mainly horticulture. So, we don't even know at the moment whether the pillar 1 payments will continue to be paid, which is currently 80 per cent of all farm subsidies. What would be the impact on our food production if pillar 1 payments are no longer made, and how are we going to ensure that we are still able to feed our population a healthy diet in the event of things going badly wrong in our relationship with Europe, which we are still going to be part of whatever happens? These are the major issues that we now face and we need to start planning for.