Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 6:15 pm on 19 June 2018.
Just to pick up where Jenny Rathbone left off with some of the figures that will impact Wales if we continue with this hardest of Brexits, as is likely to happen with the decisions taken in Westminster by two parties at the moment—we will lose as much as £5 billion from the Welsh economy. Many of us recall going into a darkened room over in Caspian Point to read the Government’s own analysis of the impact on Wales if we were to leave the single market, where the decline in Welsh GDP would be almost 10 per cent, or 5 per cent under some sort of free trade agreement, and even if we were to remain in the single market, it would fall by 1.5 per cent, because the areas that voted most strongly for Brexit are the areas that are going to suffer most as a result of the current Brexit proposals being espoused by the Westminster Government.
It’s true to say that a number of predictions as to what may happen if the nation voted for Brexit have turned out to be incorrect, but it's a fact, as Jenny Rathbone referred to, that the Bank of England has said that we are £900 per household worse off now, even though Brexit hasn’t yet happened, and that is down to the strength of the pound.
The single market is crucial to Wales, as is the customs union. Sixty-one per cent of exports go directly to the rest of the European Union, and that compares with less than 50 per cent across the whole of the UK. And if we look at growth, the English economy will grow 1.7 per cent this year, and the Welsh economy will grow by just 1.3 per cent, whilst Ireland, in the eurozone, will grow 5.7 per cent this year, and that is true generally speaking.
Therefore, the decision to leave the European Union is going to have a very detrimental impact on the most disadvantaged citizens of Wales, and we need to safeguard, and it is the job of this Assembly and the Welsh Government to defend those most vulnerable people with regard to the impact of decisions taken as a result of Brexit. That’s why I’m disappointed, not so much with the motion before us, because, as Leanne Wood said, we would be able to support the wording of the motion, but with the actions of the Labour Party since the vote, which have become more and more uncertain, and they have become more and more of a midwife to a hard Brexit proposed by a Conservative Government.