2. What assessment has the Cabinet Secretary made of the impact on Wales of the UK Government not reaching a deal with the EU-27 on the arrangements for leaving the EU? OAQ52535

I thank the Member for that question. The UK Government’s chaotic handling of Brexit undoubtedly risks a catastrophic 'no deal'. The White Paper published by the UK Government finally set out a change of direction. It must now move away from their red line strategy towards the right form of Brexit, as we set out over 18 months ago in 'Securing Wales’ Future'.

Thank you for that response, Cabinet Secretary. With Tories resigning almost every day, and others doing all they can to undermine their beleaguered Prime Minister, I'm sure I'm not alone in finding the whole debacle around the Brexit negotiations pretty alarming for the future of Wales. At the very moment when calm heads are required in order to deal with a tough set of negotiations, all we can see is a process that appears out of control and is plunging us towards the prospect of a disastrous 'no deal' and all the damage that that will cause. Now, as you know, Cabinet Secretary, I have much experience of negotiation, and one thing I do know is that when you're in a hole you stop digging. So, would you agree with me that, for everyone's sake, it's now time to call for a pause and to ask the EU-27 to extend the timetable so that this job can be done properly?

I thank the Member for that question. Indeed, she is a very experienced and formidable negotiator in my experience of being on the opposite side of the table to her. I agree that the chaos in the UK Government is deeply alarming. She proposes extending the article 50 deadline, and that may yet be needed, although I think we should be under no illusions about the difficulties that would lie in the path of achieving that. The real solution is for the Prime Minister to come forward, vigorously defend an approach that clearly embraces participation in the single market and the customs union, which would resolve the issue of the Irish border and the damage that that is doing to the potential withdrawal agreement. The withdrawal agreement has another deadline in it as well, Llywydd, which we discussed on the floor of the Assembly yesterday, and that is the deadline around the transition period. It makes no more sense to have a cliff edge in December 2020 than in March 2019, and we need flexibility on that issue as well.

Clearly, our colleagues in Westminster have voted as they have voted over the last few days. And, ahead of Dominic Raab's meeting with Mr Barnier, I believe tomorrow, with the aim of accelerating negotiations to complete the withdrawal agreement in time for the October deadline, officials of the UK and the EU are understood to have met on Monday to discuss the Irish border, the future relationship and final withdrawal agreement issues, and to have met yesterday, and will be meeting today, to discuss the final remaining 20 per cent of the UK exit agreement. What input have you or your officials had into this week's talks, if any?

Well, Llywydd, I wish Mr Raab well in the discussions that he will have. When the First Minister was with Michel Barnier on Monday, Mr Barnier did indeed show the First Minister the text of the agreement, showing the 80 per cent that had been agreed, and the remaining 20 per cent yet to be agreed. We had an opportunity to make an input there. We continue to have opportunities at official level. Do they come at us in a way that we think is aligned to the responsibilities that we, and other devolved administrations, exercise? And are we given the sort of opportunity that would genuinely assist in shaping the UK Government's proposition? Well, I'm afraid, we know from long experience that that is not the case. We continue to take whatever opportunities are available to us. 

Cabinet Secretary, as you know, we are heading towards a situation where the chaos we have seen in London—where, last week, they were actually running through the Commons with White Papers, because no-one had seen them, and the resignations of Ministers—is pushing us towards a 'no deal' exit. Mark Isherwood has highlighted that the officials were negotiating on Monday, yesterday and today. Well, probably, they had a different set of guidelines on Monday, yesterday and today, and, therefore, they don't even know what they were talking about. That leads us to a possible and likely scenario of 'no deal' on exit. Yesterday, you indicated that you were preparing contingency plans for that situation. Have you undertaken an analysis of the priority areas for those contingency plans, so that we know how the Welsh Government will look to protect those priority areas for our economy and for the people of Wales?   

Well, I can assure the Member that that contingency planning is happening, that it does involve identifying those areas that lie directly within the responsibility of the Welsh Government, that would look at the impacts of a 'no deal' Brexit that would fall more sharply on the Welsh population, and then draw up contingency plans to deal with that catastrophic outcome.