Diolch, Deputy Presiding Officer.

At the start of this Assembly, the Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee agreed that one of its priorities should be to scrutinise the Welsh Government’s progress on climate change mitigation because of its importance to the people of Wales. It was also agreed that the committee would produce an annual report on the Welsh Government’s progress and hold an annual debate on its content.

I am delighted to open this debate on the committee’s first annual report on the Welsh Government’s progress on climate change mitigation, and I would like to thank the current and previous members of the committee who have contributed to this work. Our scrutiny has been supported by a group of experts from academia, local government and business and conservation groups. The group’s views are reflected in our conclusions and recommendations. I want to place on record my thanks to the members of that group.

Today, I want to focus on two aspects of the committee’s report: our assessment of the Welsh Government’s progress on climate change so far; and our view on the Welsh Government’s future plans and actions.

First, the committee has assessed the Welsh Government’s progress on climate change. The Welsh Government published its climate change strategy back in 2010. This committed to a reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions to a level 40 per cent below 1990 or 1995 levels, depending on the gas, by 2020. Those were very ambitious targets. The stark fact is that the Welsh Government will not meet those targets. More recently, the Assembly passed the Environment (Wales) Act 2016, which requires the Welsh Government to ensure that net emissions for 2050 are at least 80 per cent lower than the 1990 or 1995 baselines. I think everybody can now see the importance of an annual report.

The independent UK Committee on Climate Change has been asked by the Welsh Government to provide it with targets up to 2050. Its analysis shows that we are behind the rest of the UK in achieving our targets. The latest statistics show Welsh emissions have reduced to 19 per cent below 1990 levels, whilst across the UK over the same period emissions fell by 27 per cent.

Emissions from industry have been broadly flat since 2008. The reduction of 31 per cent on 1990 levels is way below the 48 per cent achieved by the UK as a whole. Emissions from the power station sector are heading in the wrong direction. They have increased by 17 per cent since 1990, which is why I am very disappointed with the lack of support from Westminster for the tidal lagoon.

I feel a bit bad about this, actually, because I’m blaming the Welsh Government for the increase in these levels, but we could be reducing them if the Government at Westminster had supported the tidal lagoon, which would have produced energy that would not be costing so much in terms of emissions. So, I’m holding you responsible for the Westminster Government not having done what they should have done, which does seem a tad unfair, but I think it is important that we do hold to account the only people we can hold to account. I wish we had Michael Gove in here and the representatives of the Westminster Government to hold to account, but unfortunately, Minister, it’s you.

As a result, the UK Committee on Climate Change has suggested targets that are less ambitious than those contained in the Welsh Government’s climate change strategy of 2010. This is a pragmatic and necessary approach given the lack of progress. It is, however, regrettable. Our concern is that this does not become a pattern, with the Welsh Government setting ambitious, aspirational long-term targets that have to be revised downwards when reality starts to bite, even if some of these are due to actions beyond their control.

We need a clear action plan, to ensure we have cross-Government measures that can deliver incremental but sustained improvement. This brings me to an innovation produced by the Environment (Wales) Act: the carbon budgeting process. Under that Act, for each five-year budgetary period, the Welsh Government must set a maximum total amount for net emissions, described as a 'carbon budget'. The first two of these carbon budgets, covering 2016-2020 and 2021-2025, must be set by the end of this year. The carbon budgets will include interim targets in regulations and Welsh Ministers must, by law, ensure that the carbon budgets are not exceeded. These carbon budgets will be the main driver for emissions reduction in Wales. The Act also requires the Welsh Government to produce a report detailing the policies and proposals that will deliver each carbon budget.

Scrutiny of these carbon budgets and the associated action plans will be a priority for this committee. There is still some further thought needed about how this new process will work in practice, but it is undoubtedly a useful mechanism to hold the Welsh Government to account. Carbon budgets will, by their very nature, deliver a cross-Government approach. Climate change poses a significant challenge and it is vital for there to be engagement across the Cabinet and across portfolios on this agenda. This is not just the role of the Cabinet Member who covers this area; it's the role of every Cabinet Member. And can I just say, on a personal level, that I'm disappointed that the only Cabinet Member who is actually present at this stage is the Cabinet Member who is going to be responding? Perhaps this has been lacking in the past, but I’m pleased to say that this appears to be improving, particularly with the introduction of carbon budgets. I’d like to commend the Cabinet Secretary on her progress and encourage her to keep up her good work.

Now I will turn to our views on the Welsh Government’s future plans and actions. Our report covers four key policy areas. The first is the European Union emissions trading scheme. In 2016, the industrial sector produced 57 per cent of all emissions in Wales, so there is much to be gained from tackling such emissions. We are part of the European Union trading scheme, a scheme that allows big emitters to trade emissions allowances as necessary to avoid incurring punitive fines. However, emissions from this sector have actually increased by 12 per cent between 2010 and 2016. After we leave the European Union, there will be opportunities to develop a successor scheme, and I hope that we will have a successor scheme. The Cabinet Secretary has expressed her frustration at the lack of progress on this and I share that frustration. I would be grateful if the Cabinet Secretary could set out the latest position on discussions with the UK Government about a possible successor scheme.

The second policy area we looked at was land management. In 2014, agriculture and land use accounted for 12 per cent of total emissions in Wales. We recommended a much more ambitious approach to increasing tree planting and we raised this under our report on trees. Unfortunately, over recent years, tree planting has fallen well short of targets. The recently revised woodland strategy for Wales has a commitment to increase woodland cover in Wales by at least 2,000 hectares a year from 2020 until 2030 and beyond. We are pleased that the Welsh Government has not abandoned its target, but we are concerned that this is just more of the same. There is no indication that this strategy will reach the targets that the old one failed to deliver. I'm fairly certain that the committee will want to give an annual report on tree targets as well, because I think that giving an annual report does hold the Government to account.

We also made recommendations on agriculture and planning. I’m afraid I don’t have enough time to go into these in detail, but I am pleased that the Government is taking forward one of the recommendations in this committee’s first report, which talked about ensuring that future funding for land management is based on contributions to targets for climate change mitigation.

Thirdly, we looked at housing and buildings. We know from our recent inquiry into low-carbon housing that Wales has some of the oldest and coldest housing stock in Europe, and it's not just in terms of energy, it's in terms of life chances for children and life expectancy for adults, which come from living in cold houses. As part of that inquiry, we recommended an extensive programme of retrofit for houses in fuel poverty in Wales. I hope we can debate that report in due course.

I was encouraged to see some of our recommendations reflected in the Government’s consultation, 'Achieving our low-carbon pathway to 2030', for instance, proposals for higher energy efficiency building standards and a long-term retrofit programme. I would also like to welcome the work of the new advisory group on the decarbonisation of homes in Wales.

Finally, we considered transport policy. In 2014, transport accounted for 12.77 per cent of total Welsh emissions. This is an area that has delivered very few improvements in terms of emissions reductions, that is, transport. There has been virtually no improvement since 2007, but as the amount of cars on the roads has increased since then, the emissions per car have almost certainly gone down.

Members will have heard last week’s debate on the Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee’s report on the Active Travel (Wales) Act 2013. This committee also looked at the implementation of that Act. I endorse our colleagues’ conclusions that the Act has clearly not delivered on its aims. We expect improvements in this policy area and will keep it under review.

We also considered the M4 relief road and electric and hydrogen vehicles. In particular, our expert group questioned what impact the M4 relief road will have on emission reduction. The Cabinet Secretary told us that total annual user carbon emissions on the south Wales highway network will reduce as a result. This is something we will keep under review.

So, in conclusion, what is this committee’s assessment of where we are? My three key messages would be: progress since the publication of the 2010 climate change report has been disappointing, but there has been progress; future targets must be challenging and stretching, but they must also be realistic and deliverable, and when we come back and report on an annual basis, which we seem to be moving towards, we expect to see progress; and there are exciting opportunities as we see innovations from the environment Act, such as carbon budgeting, coming on stream.

This is our first annual report on the delivery of climate change mitigation. It has highlighted the scale of the challenge ahead. We will continue to keep this subject under review and report back to the Assembly on progress.