4. What effect has the 6 per cent land transaction tax rate had on tax revenue from commercial property transactions of over £1 million since April 2018? OAQ52724

Dirprwy Lywydd, it is too early to draw any conclusions about the potential effects of land transaction tax on the commercial property market. Only five months of data has been published by the Welsh Revenue Authority. And, of course, as I've said many times in this Chamber, the Welsh Government will continue to monitor the situation.

Yes, well, the Cabinet Secretary is no doubt aware that the land transaction tax base is commercial property transactions, and, according to the CoStar review of commercial property investment for the second quarter, which, I understand, surveys all commercial transactions above that size and many more across the UK, the total amount of commercial property investment in Wales in the second quarter was just £40 million. That is a 78 per cent decline compared to the five-year average. Is it not the case that, as night follows day, that collapse in commercial property transactions is going to lead to a collapse in commercial tax revenues on the LTT thanks to your 6 per cent supertax? 

Llywydd, that really is about as nonsensical a contribution as you're likely to hear this afternoon. The Member takes a single quarter—a single quarter—and proceeds to build castles on it far into the future.

It's in your budget for this year; you're relying on them.

Let me give him a different example of commercial property transactions here in Cardiff in the third quarter, where, in Cardiff, the largest office tower, Capital Tower, was sold last month for £25 million. This is what the seller's agent said:

'Over recent years Cardiff has cemented its position as a major regional centre in the UK.... We capitalised on this here with more than 10 inspections of the building from potential purchasers, creating a highly competitive bidding environment which enabled the end result to be achieved.'

The highest—

One transaction.

From the man who offers me one quarter—from the man who offers me one quarter's worth of figures. So—[Interruption.] Yes, but what he would like to do, he would like to take one quarter and then tell me that the rest of the world is falling about our ears. I offer him one transaction from the succeeding quarter, which is the single greatest sum ever paid for a commercial building here in Wales, and where the buyer's agent said:

'The fast moving Cardiff office market has meant quality office investment stock like Capital Tower is so hard to buy.'

It does not sound to me to be the views of people put off from investing in Wales. Dirprwy Lywydd, if there were to be anything that would have an impact on commercial property in Wales, it's not 1 per cent added to a tax, it's his plans for a hard-line Brexit that will bring property prices in commercial and residential property crashing around our ears.