8. What analysis has the Welsh Government undertaken of the impact upon Wales of moving to World Trade Organization rules after Brexit? OAQ52917

Llywydd, our analysis of the consensus view from mainstream researchers and academics is that moving to World Trade Organization rules could result in the UK economy being up to 10 per cent smaller in the future. That is why our evidence-based approach in 'Securing Wales' Future' proposed full and unfettered participation in the single market.

Thank you for that answer, Cabinet Secretary. On Monday the External Affairs and Additional Legislation Committee had a briefing session on the World Trade Organization and the rules and, clearly, the complexities that exist within those rules shoot down the arguments many had in the referendum of how easy it was to simply transfer over if we needed to. I understand the UK Government actually put a schedule forward to the WTO for consideration in July, which many countries have come back with deep concerns about. They've also put forward a schedule in October relating to the tariff rate quotas, which, again, they had assumed would be easily shared. Again, many countries have come back, and when you consider that New Zealand has a tariff rate quota with the EU on lamb, it is a big, important issue. Has the UK Government had discussions with the Welsh Government on these schedules to ensure that our interests and our exports are considered as they are putting them forward?

Well, Llywydd, I know that my colleague Ken Skates has certainly been in discussions with the UK Government on the issue of tariff rate quotas, and David Rees is absolutely right: we were told by those members of the UK Government who advocated leaving the European Union that certification of UK schedules at the WTO would be a simple matter of asking for it—you'd put it in the post and it would be back the next day. It couldn't be simpler, we were told. Clearly, that is absolutely not the case. More than 20 countries raised objections to the UK treatment of tariff rate quotas at the first opportunity that they had available to them, and the UK has now had to decide to open negotiations on tariff rate quotas with other WTO members. Those things will not now be concluded before we leave the European Union. And, from a Welsh perspective, of course we are concerned about the negative impact of any modifications to TRQs on sensitive sectors in Wales—in the production of farm-based products in particular—and we continue to press the UK Government to make sure that we are consulted in advance on these matters, given the complexity that we now know is involved in reconciling them.  

The Deputy Presiding Officer (Ann Jones) took the Chair.

Thank you very much, Cabinet Secretary.