Part of 1. Questions to the Cabinet Secretary for Finance – in the Senedd at 1:52 pm on 5 December 2018.
Diolch yn fawr iawn, Llywydd. Can I commend the chief economist to the Welsh Government for the document that was published this week, summarising the economic analyses that have been made by the UK Government of the effects of Brexit under different scenarios? But the document contains some of the more ludicrous projections, including the ones that have been published by the Bank of England this week—in the continuation of project fear—that claimed that by the end of 2023, on the worst case scenario, gross domestic product in the UK could be between 7.75 per cent and 10 per cent lower than it was in May 2016, which would be quite remarkable, because not only is that a much more severe contraction than we experienced in the recession of 2008, it is actually greater than the fall in output that occurred during the great depression in the 1930s, and is only seen in countries like Venezuela, which have been given a full dose of Corbynite economic policies, and where a 16 per cent contraction in GDP in one year is now the norm. So, would the Cabinet Secretary agree with me that the kinds of worst case scenarios produced by official organisations like the Bank of England are actually grossly irresponsible in the current climate of uncertainty over Brexit, because they just magnify fears unnecessarily and, therefore, make that uncertainty even worse, and that has a real impact upon businesses and the lives and livelihoods of ordinary people?