Part of 1. Questions to the Cabinet Secretary for Finance – in the Senedd at 1:54 pm on 5 December 2018.
Well, Llywydd, can I thank the Member, first of all, for drawing attention to the document that the chief economist published yesterday? He is independent of Government in the judgments that he makes, and I know he was anxious to publish his assessment alongside the debate that we had yesterday, and I hope other Members will have a chance to read what he said.
I think his analysis is sober. I think it is deliberately couched in language intended to be non-alarmist, and where I can't agree with the Member, as he will know, is in dismissing projections that are made by absolutely mainstream and respectable forecasters, not simply the Bank of England, but also the Treasury itself, and also analysts outside Government, all of whom share a broad consensus on the potential impact on our economy of a hardline slash-and-burn Brexit. And I can't afford to dismiss those projections in the way that he does, because in Government, I'm afraid that you have to prepare for the worst, even when you are working as hard as you can to avoid it.