Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:31 pm on 22 January 2019.
Can I thank the Member for his contribution and his questions? First of all, I don't think anybody voted for additional bureaucracy or higher insurance premiums. I don't think anybody voted to have their holidays disrupted because of arrangements concerning driver licences and the demand for proof that they have certain permits. And in terms of this simply being a matter of progressing project fear, as many Members have said today—. Look, I'll quote another organisation; I'll quote the manufacturers organisation EEF. Let's quote them. Because they spoke to their members, and their members employ a huge number of people in our economy. They reported that one in six decision makers say that business would become untenable for them—untenable for them—in the UK if we reverted to WTO tariffs and if there were increased border checks on people and increased checks on goods at the border—one sixth. That would clearly impact on the Welsh economy in a devastating way.
The Confederation of British Industry reports that the changes that businesses would have to make in a 'no deal' scenario are the most drastic and expensive ones that are imaginable, and would include relocating operations, increasing prices and moving jobs from the UK. I like to listen to the likes of Airbus, of course, who I mentioned I visited just last Thursday, and Jaguar Land Rover. What would happen to Jaguar Land Rover if it faced 40 per cent tariffs on its vehicles leaving the UK for Europe?
The Member mentioned the use of declared manifests. Well, I think, as the Brexit Minister identified, free trade agreements are part and parcel of this arrangement, and thus far, in spite of what the Secretary of State for International Trade had promised, no trade agreements have yet been reached by the UK Government. And I think it's absolutely clear, based on all of the available evidence, that if there is a 'no deal' Brexit on 29 March, it will have a huge and negative impact on the Welsh economy.