Item 11 is a statement by the Minister for Economy and Transport: the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit on transportation. I call on the Minister for Economy and Transport, Ken Skates.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer, for this opportunity to speak about the impact of a 'no deal Brexit' on the transportation of goods and people and the substantial work the Welsh Government has been undertaking and co-ordinating to understand and mitigate the risk of disruption.

As we've heard a number of times this afternoon—and I make no apology for repeating it—we have long opposed the prospect of a 'no deal', and we call on the Prime Minister to take this off the table. A 'no deal' Brexit could cause severe disruption to the transport network and connected services within Wales. I've outlined our ambitious plans for the transport network many times in this Chamber, and I do not want to see them derailed by in-fighting within the Conservative Party and a 'no deal' by default. We want to avoid a 'no deal' Brexit and the negative effects that it will have on Welsh and international businesses, which contribute so much to our economy and the quality of life for everyone living in our country.

Deputy Presiding Officer, there has been substantial interest and concern expressed in this Chamber, in committee sessions and more widely in the media about the implications of a 'no deal' Brexit for our ports, and rightly so. Ports in Wales make a critical contribution to our economy, not least by providing jobs and added value to local communities. Any risk to their efficient operation poses a substantial risk for Wales as a whole. Container ports, such as Cardiff, Port Talbot and Newport, are already engaged with international goods movement and are less likely to experience significant disruption. Our ferry ports, however, are a very different story and are particularly vulnerable to the shocks that could arise following a 'no deal' Brexit.

Most of the risks relate to border arrangements, to customs and safety checks. These risks are of course for the UK Government to resolve. The UK Government has decided to make no additional checks on goods from EU countries in a 'no deal' scenario, albeit on a temporary basis. This might ease some of the short-term pressure, but we need a more robust, long-term solution. The requirement by the EU for Ireland to treat goods from the UK as a third country, including all the required checks, could cause knock-on delays at ferry ports. For Pembroke Dock and Fishguard, our analysis suggests delayed vehicles could be managed within the port. We are keeping, of course, this under constant review, in case extra contingency measures are needed. Holyhead would find it more difficult to absorb the effects of delays. We're working on solutions to manage traffic disruption from delays at the port, and I can today update Members about these plans. 

An assessment of the reasonable worst-case scenario for heavy goods vehicle delays has been prepared by the UK Government, and this applies to all ferry ports across the UK. This assessment is underpinned by a number of cross-Government and cross-departmental assumptions, such as the checks that might be imposed and what infrastructure could be put in place. The modelling indicates that it is likely that delayed traffic at Holyhead could be held within the confines of the port and any overflow on the A55 would be unlikely. However, the modelling is based on a range of common assumptions about which there remain a significant number of uncertainties and which are being constantly reviewed. We have therefore been developing contingency plans as part of the Holyhead port strategic consultation group, which was set up last year.

Potential sites on Anglesey have been identified and assessed, including the existing Roadking truck stop facility. My officials have met Roadking to discuss the use of this particular site. It is geographically well placed, there are no developmental issues and suitable infrastructure is already in place. We will now discuss terms with Roadking, but this is not the only option available to us. Parc Cybi is another option. This is a Welsh Government development site and has sufficient capacity for 40 HGVs. And there's a further fall-back option: the A55 could be used. Across Anglesey, roadworks are carried out with daytime lane closures and minimal disruption. Similar measures could be used, in the unlikely event that they were necessary, in order to manage freight delays at the port. A 'no deal' Brexit also poses more general risks to freight haulage, as falling back on the international permitting system could place severe restrictions on operators moving goods across the UK-EU border.

The EU Commission has proposed a temporary solution in the event of no deal, which allows UK and EU HGVs to continue moving goods across the border on the basis of mutual recognition until the end of this calendar year. So, this is, of course, only a stay of execution. More clarity is needed about the future arrangements and the implications of permit restrictions, including what they could mean for Welsh hauliers and the ports and the businesses and individual consumers that rely on them. It’s important to emphasise here the likely large impact on food and other goods destined for Wales if there were significant disruption at Dover, which the UK Government expects in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit. Whilst the French Government has announced it will be adopting legislation to put emergency infrastructure at its ports and lighten certain customs arrangements, the details of this remain unclear. There has been no similar indication from Ireland of an intention to lighten arrangements.We continue to work with key stakeholders in the freight haulage industry to ensure we can respond to the industry’s needs in a swift and responsible manner.

Deputy Presiding Officer, turning to a matter that affects every one of us who holds a driving licence: the UK will continue to be a member of the Vienna Convention on Road Traffic after exit day, along with most member states. UK driving licences will continue to be recognised, but parties to this agreement may require holders to have an international driving permit if they are driving on the continent in future. In respect of motor insurance, EU law allows any vehicles insured in one member state to be driven in any other. However, vehicles normally based in a third country, which the UK will be after a 'no deal' Brexit, are required to obtain a valid green card. While the UK participates in this system, it will mean additional bureaucracy for drivers wanting to drive in and to the EU, who will have to carry motor insurance green cards to prove they have valid insurance. There is also a very real risk of insurance price rises. We all heard news reports from the AA that car insurance premiums have risen by an average of 2.7 per cent over the last three months as a result of Brexit uncertainty.

Finally, I want to turn to air services. The Commission has proposed regulations to continue existing direct flights between the EU and the UK for 12 months after exit day. However, this is a stop-gap measure and a bare-bones agreement. UK operators could lose the ability to operate flights to the EU on to other destinations, whether within Europe or otherwise, and will not be able to commence new routes or increase services on existing routes. This could have important and negative implications for business and leisure travellers from Wales and the UK regardless of where they travel from. It could also have profound implications for Cardiff Airport, which has seen significant growth from its connections to EU destinations. Restrictions placed on these markets at this stage could reverse recent growth, reducing financial sustainability of Wales's only international airport and removing an important gateway for Welsh passengers to international destinations.

We are, of course, pressing the UK Government to avoid this scenario. Furthermore, after the UK leaves the EU, the devolution of air passenger duty to Wales continues to be one of the most effective methods to promote the economic prospects of Cardiff Airport. So, we will continue to urge the UK Government to level the APD playing field and treat Wales in the same way as it's treated Northern Ireland and Scotland.

We'll also continue to press the UK Government to progress our current application for public service obligation approval of nine routes in and out of Cardiff, because the delay is unacceptable.

Dirprwy Lywydd, we are therefore taking all proportionate steps to preserve the integrity of our transport system in the face of a 'no deal' Brexit and to ensure the continued viability and success of our transportation system. However, we should be under no illusion that, with a 'no deal' Brexit, there would be disruption nevertheless.

I'd like to thank the Minister for his statement, which was largely helpful, containing useful information and updates to Members, and, no doubt, preparing work for a 'no deal' Brexit is putting that extra level of burden, I think, on Welsh Government civil servants, which I think should also be recognised as well.

Your statement improved as you delivered it, but you did start poorly. You mentioned a difference of view within the Conservative Party, but of course you failed to mention the infighting within the Labour Party. But I'm going to move on to the important and reasonable areas of your statement.

Now, I understand that there was a broad agreement on the approach that the UK Government have advocated regarding transport, so I would—Minister, if you could confirm whether this is the case and provide an update on what arrangements you have had with the UK Government since the joint ministerial forum on EU negotiations that was held on 3 December. Under the deal with the Prime Minister that has been negotiated, the UK Government and the EU had agreed a comprehensive air transport agreement, commitments that can allow comparable access for road hauliers and operation of buses and coaches, as well as a bilateral agreement on cross-border rail services. Now, if the Prime Minister's deal is now in jeopardy, as it is, can I ask what discussions you've had with the EU exit business advisory group and other transport industry groups in Wales on the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit on the sector?

Upon Brexit, UK-licensed airlines will cease to be community air carriers for the operation of air services and will no longer be part of the multilateral agreement on the establishment of a European common aviation area, so what discussions have you had with Cardiff Airport, and airline operators who operate from the airport, in preparation for Brexit? The Welsh aerospace sector is, as I'm sure you will fully agree with me, a high-growth, high-value sector, driven by innovation, and I certainly want to see Wales securing that place as a world leader in the future global market. I understand there has been cross-Government engagement with key stakeholders across the aerospace sector since the Brexit referendum, and I met with Airbus myself, just a few weeks before Christmas, along with the leader of the opposition, Paul Davies, to provide a commitment to do what we can to ensure that Wales is the most competitive location in the world for aerospace and other advanced manufacturing. It is clearly not in the interests of the UK, Wales or the EU to disrupt the just-in-time supply chain of our integrated aerospace sector, and products should only need to undergo one series of approvals in one country. I wonder if I could have your comments in that regard.

The time sensitivity inherent to modern UK logistics and supply chains means that retaining a seamless supply chain process is of significant economic importance, and I wonder what assessment has been made of the effect on our maritime industry, given the importance of our ports to freight. You have mentioned in your statement at some length about the contribution to our economy in regard to our ports and the risk that a 'no deal' poses to our fishing operations. I agree with you on that. I heard what you said in regard to our ports, and I wonder if you've had any discussion on the likely changes in trading patterns that would affect such ports as Holyhead and Fishguard, because, clearly, there'll be knock-on consequences to third party suppliers.

In your statement, you talked about trade with Ireland, and I wonder what discussions you've had, Minister, with your counterparts in the Irish Government to discuss the implications of Brexit for Welsh ports and Ireland-Wales transport links in general, and I wonder what advice you've published as well—if you could let us know what advice you've published to ports and traders and other firms and other organisations that use the border about potential disruptions, so they can get their supply chains ready.

I wonder what consideration has been given to the removal of EU rail legislation on the industry structure here in Wales. Is there any scope at all for any capital transport investment schemes to be brought forward to support the Welsh economy? And, finally, you talked about the potential of the waiting sites for delayed vehicles on Anglesey and in Pembrokeshire, and I wonder if you've had any discussions in regard to security matters with the police in those areas, or your officials have, indeed, had discussions with police forces in those particular areas in regard to security. 

Can I thank the Member for his contribution and for his questions? I think he makes a number of important points. Perhaps if I can begin with the latter points and latter questions that he raised first, North Wales Police are part of the group that we've established in the north west of Wales to look at the future operations of the port, and, along with North Wales Police, there are other agencies that are involved in the work, including, for example, the NHS, to make sure that any impact on the port can be managed across the public sector.

I would urge all businesses, because the Member did raise a question about advice to firms concerning disruption at ports—. Well, advice on this matter and many other matters relating to Brexit is already captured in the EU Brexit portal that has been established on the Business Wales website, and I would urge all businesses to visit the site—17,000 have already done so—and to take advantage of the diagnostic tool that is available on that particular website to assess the possible impact on individual businesses of various scenarios that could come after 29 March.

Russell George is right to say that the challenge of Brexit has placed a significant additional burden on civil servants in the Welsh Government. As the First Minister has already said, officials are stretched—incredibly stretched—by the work that is required in order for us to minimise the impact, particularly to minimise the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit. I should say that we are united within the party on Brexit, and that explains why we have been able to put together such a comprehensive preparedness plan and why, even in spite of Brexit, we're able to carry on with the day job, and, in my department, that includes attracting major investments such as Monzo Bank Ltd, making sure that we're able to support the development of businesses that are small and micro-sized, and the Member will be aware of the employment statistics, which showed today employment at a record high in Wales, and that is because of the hard work of the Welsh Government, working in social partnership with businesses, trade unions, with education providers and the third sector, making sure that, in spite of Brexit, we drive economic growth the length and breadth of Wales. And it has to be said that our efforts and our success come in spite of the looming threat of a 'no deal' Brexit.

We know that uncertainty over Brexit is suppressing the economy by more than 1.5 per cent. So, it's quite clear that, if we were not to leave the EU or if we were to resolve the impasse with a deal that meets our criteria, then there would be something of a mini boom in the economy, and that is something that, I'm sure, all Members would welcome.

There are arrangements already in place through joint committees with UK Government concerning transport. I met with my counterparts in the UK Government just before Christmas to discuss a range of matters particularly relating to ports and the road haulage industry. If the Prime Minister fails to secure a deal, then the matter will be further examined by the EU exit group, which is a sub-group of the council for economic development. We've been meeting very regularly to assess, in partnership with Cardiff Business School, who've been carrying out comprehensive assessments, the impact of scenarios on the Welsh economy, but particularly with a focus on a 'no deal' Brexit. 

With regard to the EU aviation area, Cardiff Airport is operating as an arm's-length body and is liaising very closely with aircraft carriers. In terms of the aerospace sector, I was with Airbus just last Thursday in north Wales, and again the message was relayed to me very loud and clear that a 'no deal' scenario would be a disaster for the aerospace sector. Clearly, movement of people is essential to Airbus. It's absolutely vital that, if a problem emerges in Tolouse, Broughton are able to deploy skilled professionals and experts in their given field at the drop of a hat. Any inhibition in the ability to be able to deploy professionals in that way will impact on just-in-time services, as well as the delivery of goods and a just-in-time ethos.

Now, numerous suggestions and numerous assessments of the impact of delays at ports have been made and have informed our preparedness plan. There is particular concern about perishable goods, for obvious reasons. Discussions have taken place with counterparts. I've had a discussion with the Irish Government Minister, and what's essential is that, moving forward, we find every way possible to avoid stacking of HGVs for a considerable length of time at Holyhead port, and that we're also able to avoid any stacking of HGVs at Dover as well. It's absolutely vital for the provision of food to our country and the businesses that operate in the food and drink sector that they are also able to export with as frictionless rules as possible.

Thank you. Can I just make a gentle suggestion? We are halfway through the allotted time for your statement and we've had one question. Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Of course, this is another area where there is a great deal of uncertainty as we get closer to the time when it appears that we are still going to be exiting the European Union. Can I ask one question? How many resources within your department, in terms of people and funding, are having to be focused on Brexit and nothing else? And how many additional staff members have you had to recruit to be involved in this particular issue? Because, of course, we need innovation in terms of transport in all sorts of ways in Wales, and so the resources that are being sucked into this are resources that could, indeed, be used in far more creative ways to improve the state of infrastructure in Wales.

In terms of specific questions, I share a great many of the concerns that you’ve raised already. Certainly, the fact that Holyhead is in my constituency makes those challenges more real for me, perhaps, than for the majority, because I'm talking about people who are constituents of mine who are working in the port, and hopes for growth in the port are part of the economic future of Anglesey. You're talking about temporary schemes to use Roadking or Parc Cybi. What kind of plans are being put in place for the slightly longer term? It’s important that we consider that time frame as well. Our experience of what’s happening on other borders suggests that there will be delays. Even between Norway and Sweden, where Norway is in the single market but isn’t in the customs union,  there is a delay, on average, of around 20 minutes. Between Bulgaria and Turkey, where Turkey is in the customs union, but isn’t in the single market, there’s a delay of up to 24 hours. And between France and Switzerland, which is the border that has been noted as the one most similar to what we’ll have after Brexit, well, there’s delay of up to two hours, where there have to be full inspections of lorries, so we shouldn’t think that there won’t be challenges for our ports. So, a little bit more of clarity for the medium term for Holyhead would be appreciated.

In terms of flights, could we have a little more information about what the Government is trying to do to push for devolution of air passenger duty? We will need that to give a boost to Cardiff Airport. And, because of the restrictions on any new routes that can be developed for 12 months after exit, does that mean that there’s no way of looking at further flights from Anglesey to Dublin, for example? I take it that that wouldn’t be possible.

I don’t know whether there is more that you can tell us about what’s being done in terms of research into the likely impact of trade flowing directly from the Republic of Ireland to France or Spain as a result of a less easy flow through Holyhead.

Finally, there are options for co-investment, as members of the European Union, in Holyhead, and other ports in Wales, as part of a joint project with the Republic of Ireland—INTERREG or the trans-European transport network, for example. Those opportunities are going to be lost to us, so what consideration has been given to the kind of joint investment that would be possible after a hard Brexit, because, as I see it, it’ll only get harder and those investments would be beneficial to us and our European partners?

Diolch. I think there are a number of really important points that Rhun ap Iorwerth has raised this afternoon. First of all, on the potential of co-investment, the Member is absolutely right that the potential 'no deal' scenario would lead to questions about investment in TEN-T routes. However, I've asked my officials to meet with potential investors next week who are looking at Holyhead port, who are showing very great interest in improving the infrastructure at the port and its attractiveness to not just tourism visitors, but to businesses as well. I think our efforts are going to have to be redoubled in the years to come if we are to maintain Holyhead's position as a premier roll-on, roll-off ferry port. The Member is absolutely right as well that we will be inhibited in terms of how we develop routes from all of the Welsh airports to outside of the UK, and so there would be questions about whether we could develop the airport in Anglesey further. This would be most disappointing given the increase in passenger numbers that we've seen on the intra-air service in recent times and what I think is a growing recognition that that the airport in the north-west of Wales, which is now very well used, is something that has a bright future if we get a decent deal on Brexit.

There is of course a select committee inquiry taking place at the moment at San Steffan concerning air passenger duty. We look forward to the outcome of that inquiry. We've given evidence; so too Cardiff Airport. We will continue to lobby the UK Government to create a level playing field. Of course, our campaign so far has not been successful, but we would urge UK Government, in order to assist with the competitiveness of the Welsh economy, to revisit this important issue. Some of what I've outlined today in terms of solutions for Holyhead port could be developed as longer term solutions. The development of policy and interventions by UK Government has focused largely on day one preparedness, but of course it's essential that we look to the medium and longer term. So, the assessment of the various options that we've undertaken in and around Holyhead has included medium and longer term solutions.

In terms of the resources that we have within my department, all officials are sharing the burden of this challenge. We have officials that are specifically allocated to developing policy in regard to our exit from the EU. However, largely, all officials are turning their heads towards dealing with Brexit. Additional recruitment is taking place at the moment for Welsh Government and, of course, in terms of financial resources, there is the £50 million EU transition fund and, within that, a £7.5 million business resilience fund. Of course, the business resilience fund is very much tied to the diagnostic toolkit hosted by Business Wales, which can signpost businesses to the relevant support and the relevant funds that we are able to offer them at this difficult time.

I thank the Minister for his statement today. I'm really concerned, and I'm sure that many people are here, that the option and the reality of a 'no deal' Brexit is still there and very much at the forefront. I can't rule that out, but I can't see any foolproof plan for making sure that it doesn't happen. I feel very strongly that the efforts of Yvette Cooper and other clear-headed MPs in Westminster are critically important here, and I also think it's why the people should have the final word on Brexit.

I want to focus my concerns around the areas that are in my region, and those are, quite clearly, the ports of Milford Haven, Pembroke Dock and Fishguard, but also the transport links that could be threatened under either the exit or a 'no deal' Brexit—the rail transport that runs right down to Fishguard. The Fishguard line, in all the inquiries that I've ever been in—a passenger line—clearly states that it's not the passenger numbers that keep it running, but the freight going down to Fishguard or to Pembroke Dock. So, if it is the case that those transport links from freight to rail are somewhat diminished or even lost, do we have any contingency plans to keep that rail open and accessible to the people who currently use it?

In terms of Milford Haven, when there was evidence to external affairs, the port of Milford Haven said that, with two thirds of Irish exports going through English and Welsh ports to the Channel ports and onwards to the continent, any establishment of an island of Ireland regulatory system that diverges from the rest of the UK—a hard border in the Irish Sea—would be deeply unhelpful to those operations. It could simply and quite clearly just cut out any of the Welsh ports whatsoever and sail happily on into Europe without landing anything.

I am particularly concerned also that, if we do continue to have freight transport going through Fishguard or any of those other ports, we are able, should there be delays, to cope with the number of lorries in those areas. There isn't exactly large-scale parking in any of these ports to cope with any delays in any way at all. Neither do we have the infrastructure that you just highlighted in the Holyhead area to deal with that. So, those are the key questions from me.   

May I thank Joyce Watson for her contribution? I agree entirely with everything that she said. If I could just add to some of the points that she raised. In terms of rail transport, of course, there will be timetabling challenges if there are significant delays at ports and disruption to the movement of goods. We saw only last year what happens when timetabling changes go horribly wrong. So, this is a key consideration as well that needs to be taken forward by DfT. We are liaising very closely with the Department for Transport and, of course, with Transport for Wales. 

I think it’s also important to recognise that, whilst the ports of Fishguard and Pembroke are not considered at this point high risk, due to their relatively low level of throughput compared to Holyhead, we have to liaise very closely with Pembrokeshire local authority and other partners to constantly review the need for precautionary measures, because if there are very significant delays at a later date, then, of course, we will have to initiate mitigating solutions.

Now, Pembroke Dock has spare holding space at the moment within its existing footprint to cater for waiting outbound vehicles, but, of course, that spare capacity may well be swallowed up if the wrong deal is negotiated or if we fail to get a deal at all and crash out of Europe. So, again, I’d like to assure the Member that I’ll be liaising very closely with the ports and with the local authority to ensure that disruption is minimised.

But I think there’s also an important point to be made about haulage firms themselves. We know that permits will be limited in number, and we fear that it will be the larger haulage firms that will most likely benefit from the permitting regime. Unfortunately, that means that many smaller haulage firms in Wales may well find themselves unable to get the permits that are required to operate in the EU. This is not a concern that is isolated to Wales, either. I was reading recently that the Northern Ireland freight transport association has raised very similar concerns and has pointed out that only 1,200 annual permits were offered across the UK last year but that 40,000 are needed. And, in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, of course, haulage firms have already seen the deadline pass for lorry drivers to apply for licences to drive in Europe. This is a major consideration for haulage firms across the length and breadth of the UK, but particularly important for small operators in Wales, who could be disadvantaged under the permitting regime and who may not, I’m afraid, have been so alert to the consequences of a ‘no deal’ Brexit as some of the larger firms across the UK.

First, can I start by saying that it is encouraging to see the contingency plans outlined by the Cabinet Secretary—sorry, the Cabinet Minister—in response to a ‘no deal’ Brexit? Because what has come out of the referendum issue is that politicians have spent an enormous amount of time arguing against the decision of the British people and very little time in preparing for our future outside the EU. But does the Cabinet Secretary not accept that what has not been considered is the ability of our business community to work out solutions to problems? And, indeed, through all the consideration and debates by politicians, it seems to have been a very neglected factor. So, let me quote Mr Duncan Buchanan of the Road Haulage Association:

‘Whatever deal you come up with, we are not going to support one type of deal, whether it is a free trade agreement, or Chequers, or staying in the single market, or the customs union. This is not for us as a trade body to recommend, it is purely a political thing. Whatever landscape you give us to work with, we will find ways of working with it. That is what supply chains do. That is what the whole logistics industry does. Whether we are in Europe, or we are trading with Turkey or China, or wherever, there are systems that can be put in place. Where we are now is the worst of all worlds, because there is no preparation at all.’

Now, does the Cabinet Secretary not agree that by far the greatest tonnage of goods entering Europe for the UK is containerised and that individual containers are not inspected, but travel through customs on declared manifests? As the Port of Rotterdam boasts in its port brochure, almost all freight travels through the port by an automated process. This includes freight from all parts of the globe. There is nothing to prevent all British and European ports adopting the same automated process. Almost all freight transferred between Canada and the USA is done by early manifest declarations, allowing for selected cargo checks only—no hold-ups, no huge lorry queues. Scare stories of rotting goods and huge queues at British and Irish ports are just that—scare stories—and it is disingenuous of Members of this Chamber to engage in such tactics. 

Again, Minister, will you not accept that all of us in this Chamber have to acknowledge one important factor: that it is as much in the interests of the people of Europe that they have ease of access to our markets as it is for us to theirs? But that does not have to include open borders for everybody who chooses to come here. Other than in Europe, no other country in the world allows such access, yet all trade successfully across the globe.

Lastly, Minister, on the matters of driving licences and car insurance, I have the advantage over the Minister in that I travelled extensively in Europe before we were members of the European Union, and I can assure him that green cards were absolutely no obstacle to travel and there were no insurance issues. So, I urge you, Minister: please don't cancel any arrangements you may have to drive on the continent over the coming years, no Brexit deal or not.   

Can I thank the Member for his contribution and his questions? First of all, I don't think anybody voted for additional bureaucracy or higher insurance premiums. I don't think anybody voted to have their holidays disrupted because of arrangements concerning driver licences and the demand for proof that they have certain permits. And in terms of this simply being a matter of progressing project fear, as many Members have said today—. Look, I'll quote another organisation; I'll quote the manufacturers organisation EEF. Let's quote them. Because they spoke to their members, and their members employ a huge number of people in our economy. They reported that one in six decision makers say that business would become untenable for them—untenable for them—in the UK if we reverted to WTO tariffs and if there were increased border checks on people and increased checks on goods at the border—one sixth. That would clearly impact on the Welsh economy in a devastating way.

The Confederation of British Industry reports that the changes that businesses would have to make in a 'no deal' scenario are the most drastic and expensive ones that are imaginable, and would include relocating operations, increasing prices and moving jobs from the UK. I like to listen to the likes of Airbus, of course, who I mentioned I visited just last Thursday, and Jaguar Land Rover. What would happen to Jaguar Land Rover if it faced 40 per cent tariffs on its vehicles leaving the UK for Europe?

The Member mentioned the use of declared manifests. Well, I think, as the Brexit Minister identified, free trade agreements are part and parcel of this arrangement, and thus far, in spite of what the Secretary of State for International Trade had promised, no trade agreements have yet been reached by the UK Government. And I think it's absolutely clear, based on all of the available evidence, that if there is a 'no deal' Brexit on 29 March, it will have a huge and negative impact on the Welsh economy.  

Thank you very much, Minister.