Can I start by thanking our Chairman, David Rees, for the way he's led the committee? I think he's done so with great alacrity. This is very pressing and serious work and I do appreciate the way you've chaired our meetings and sought to draw out a consensus amongst committee members. But the first thing to emphasise is that, if we leave the EU without a transitionary period, then the disruption is likely to be severe, at least in the areas we are identifying, and potentially we run considerable risks, and indeed it appears that some of those risks are heavier in Wales than they are in other parts of the UK. So, this is very, very serious work indeed and I'm really, really—one thing that gives me encouragement is that we've been so led in it and backed by a wonderful secretariat in terms of producing and helping us produce these reports. 

I also want to commend broadly the Welsh Government for taking, I think, quite a responsible attitude in trying to seek out all the practical ways that it can liaise with the UK Government to ensure that a range of contingencies are prepared. I do welcome this. I think it is a mature approach.

I want to refer just to some of the concerns that have already been raised by our Chair, but let me amplify a couple of them. In terms of the ports, we do need to know more about Welsh Government planning to cope with traffic-related issues, particularly at Holyhead. Now, the UK Government has started to do this in terms of the channel ports in particular. So, the commercial sensitivities, I'm not so sure that they are that pressing, and, anyway, the biggest need is for us to get some information and communication out there. So, I do hope this can be readdressed. An issue for the UK Government that the Welsh Government can put pressure on is the capacity at the moment at our ports to deal with the changes in the regulatory regimes that may apply very, very quickly. This is a great worry for the stakeholders and I think, again, we need some reassurance. 

In terms of healthcare, as has been mentioned, the issue of the number of medicines that come into Britain and the number that go across to Europe is really quite substantial. And this, again, requires very careful co-ordination, particularly around those that perish quickly, like insulin. This was emphasised to us. I know there's an ongoing challenge about warehousing. We were already quite close to capacity in some respects as far as I understand, especially over the ones that require careful storage. These medicines are often required by the most vulnerable in society, so there's an issue there.

The staffing implications are really important. I won't repeat them, other than to say I think the Welsh Government is hoping to report on this specifically about staffing in social and healthcare, and expecting to report sometime in March. I do hope it's able to report as early as possible. I do realise you don't yet know the actual situation we'll be facing, but it's very important that we get some clear information and, again, that that is communicated.

Finally, on food and drink, if we could have some update on the food supply issue of Tesco's announcement that they were concerned. I think this just emphasises the whole issue of leaving the European Community after 40 years, whatever your views are about it. Trading and economic patterns are very set. We've been Europeanised substantially. We have globalisation over this. The supply chains are incredibly intricate, and we do need to bear that in mind, and it will be inevitably disruptive if those are broken without a deal and a transitionary period.

Finally, I do think we now have to spell out what is likely to happen to lamb if we don't have a deal. We will face a 43 per cent tariff. That's the best scenario. We could be in a worse situation than that. We will lose our markets overnight in Europe. Many of the countries there will start to produce more lamb. Now, that will take them a little while, but New Zealand only uses half its quota at the moment in the European market. There's every chance that the slack created by Welsh lamb becoming too expensive could then go to a competitor, and this could devastate our industry. I think it's time that everyone in this Chamber really stood up and addressed these home truths and recognised them, because to see the backbone of our livestock industry devastated would be astonishing. Many of us in the Chamber remember the Chernobyl episode and what that did to much of our lamb production, particularly in north Wales. To see that redoubled and magnified is really quite a shocking prospect, and that's why we need a deal.