The Prime Minister’s deal is really dead. There is no prospect, as confirmed repeatedly in recent days, of the DUP backing it, while after last night the advocates of ‘no deal’ will scent victory. All the other parties will only let it pass if there is movement on the political declaration and/or a second public vote. The Prime Minister’s latest threat of a general election—now, apparently, to be linked through a confidence motion to her deal—is a hollow threat. She has no authority to write a manifesto or lead her party, and a Tory leadership contest before we either conclude the withdrawal agreement or crash out with no deal would be a self-indulgence of staggering proportions.

If there is a longer extension, there will have to be European elections, and the deadline for firing the starting gun for those elections is in nine days’ time. Though the risk of a legal challenge to the legitimacy of the European Parliament might be slight, it is a risk our European neighbours are not prepared to tolerate, since it could end up with the European Commission itself being declared invalidly constituted. They want a solution that can be delivered before the new Parliament convenes on 2 July. That, if it holds, would rule out a general election and, indeed, a referendum.

Revocation is not an easy way of buying more time. The European Court of Justice, in its recent ruling, was absolutely clear that a revocation must be ‘unequivocal and unconditional’. So, a revocation is not a way of simply pausing the Brexit process to give more time for a referendum, citizens’ assemblies or a renegotiation. So, our options continue to narrow.

The Welsh Government recognises the vital importance of achieving a compromise. We urge Parliament to find a stable consensus. The votes of the last few days show support for a different outcome—a closer post-Brexit relationship through a customs union and European Economic Area membership. Whereas we continue to believe that the best outcome would be a future economic relationship that guarantees full participation in the single market across the whole economy as well as participation in a customs union, we strongly welcome what I hope is an emerging coalition in favour of that kind of customs union. If this is clearly understood to be in addition to the commitments that the UK Government has already made in terms of maintaining alignment with single-market rules in terms of goods and agriculture, we could support a political declaration rewritten to reflect this as the basis for passing the withdrawal deal.

The Welsh Government has shown how the commitment of the UK Government to these negotiating objectives could be enshrined in legislation, and we welcome the indication of the Prime Minister and the Attorney-General in the House of Commons last Friday that the Government would be minded to accept such an approach. Such an outcome would, of course, make it virtually certain that the backstop would never be needed. I have also written to David Lidington to urge the UK Government at the same time to commit to a statutory role for the devolved administrations in those future negotiations.

As well as an emerging substantive outcome, there is increasing support on a constitutional outcome—a confirmatory vote. We have always advocated more than one route to resolving this crisis and it is good to see Parliament now adopting this approach. While we continue to believe that uniting around a soft Brexit will deliver the quickest route to a less damaging Brexit, Parliament must also back the option of a referendum as an alternative. Compromise is now essential. So, whilst every day without agreement is a day nearer to a 'no deal' exit, and with 12 April almost upon us, it is now a very, very real prospect. Equally, if Parliament could come together and work in the way we suggest, we are potentially not that far from an agreement that could remove that cliff edge, but there is absolutely no time to lose.