8. What assessment has the Minister made of the potential impact of Brexit on future Welsh Government budgets? OAQ53733

The chief economist’s report, published alongside the draft budget 2019-20, provides an analysis of Wales’s medium-term fiscal prospects. Both economic and fiscal prospects depend crucially on the form of exiting the EU.

Minister, we're aware that the chaos surrounding Brexit at present is already having a damaging impact on the budgets of the United Kingdom, but also on the perception of the United Kingdom in the wider world. We are also aware that there isn't a single form of Brexit that actually benefits the economy. There's no such thing as a jobs-first Brexit, there's no such thing as an economy-first Brexit. We know that Brexit, whatever form it takes, will have a detrimental impact on the economy of Wales and the economy of the United Kingdom. The question we ask ourselves is what sort of negative impact it will have. Now, that clearly will impact our ability to raise taxation, both in Wales and the United Kingdom. It would appear to me that it would be useful were the Welsh Government to be able to make a full statement on the potential impacts on public spending in Wales of Brexit, whatever form it takes.

Thank you. It is my intention to bring forward before the end of the summer term a statement on the outlook for public spending, and that will certainly be informed by the form that Brexit takes, but you're absolutely right to say that there is no Brexit that isn't harmful to the Welsh economy, and we set that out very clearly in the 'Securing Wales's Future' policy paper, but also in terms of the economic analysis, which we also published in December, regarding the potential ways in which we might leave the EU. And, actually, it's a fact that Wales might even be or is likely to be even worse hit than other parts of the UK. I was interested to read today Goldman Sachs saying £600 million a week has already been lost to the UK since the European referendum. I certainly didn't see that on the side of a bus.

Thank you to the Minister.