Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:45 pm on 3 April 2019.
'On time, within budget, and in a successful manner.'
It's not always that we hear those descriptions of projects. This was very—. I don't have much to add, actually, to what the Chair of the committee has said. This was a very interesting inquiry to be involved in. Can I also thank the witnesses who came before the inquiry? We've managed to deliver, I think, a very efficient and timely report that only has three recommendations, but they're three important recommendations. As I said earlier in the finance questions to the Minister, it's very easy at the moment to proclaim every day as momentous when it comes to fiscal devolution, because there's something happening every day. And I understand that 6 April is the actual deadline date that the Welsh rate of income tax will kick in. This is clearly the most important process that the Assembly has been through, if not since the advent of devolution, certainly since the advent of further powers back in 2011. Therefore, it's clearly important that we get it right, and I know that that was the intention of everyone on the committee.
I'm pleased that the Welsh Government has accepted the three recommendations—they're pretty straightforward. If I can just turn to recommendation 3 first, given some of the concerns of the FSB that I raised earlier regarding the lack of awareness of businesses about the devolution of stamp duty and landfill disposals tax, it's clearly important that people are aware that this month, on 6 April, there's income tax devolution and what it means for them. As the Chair said, it was concerning that some people thought they were going to be charged an extra 10p on top of the UK rate of income tax. I think that would cause a mass migration across the border within a few months. So, Welsh Government, and all of us, in fact, need to do what we can to make sure that people do fully understand this. But at the same time, this is a complex process, and for those people who aren't involved in the day-to-day running of taxation, then it's something that clearly needs to be set out.
Recommendation 2 relates to knowledge transfer within the Welsh Revenue Authority, and this is important if the organisation is not only to survive now, but to be strengthened in the future, as we'd all want to see. We need to recruit, develop and retain tax-specific skills—to quote the report—in Wales. Let's face it; we've never required this depth of capability here before. This is ground-breaking stuff in every sense. But we do need it now. And that doesn't just apply to the Welsh Revenue Authority; that also applies to the Welsh Government too. We don't just need to have the taxation knowledge; we need to have the economic knowledge and the tax forecasting and economic forecasting ability as well.
Chapter 5 of the report doesn't actually end in a recommendation, but chapter 5 covers new taxes. The previous Cabinet Secretary's intention to test the mechanism for developing a new tax—I assume that the current Minister has inherited that intention. Perhaps she can clarify that. I'm pleased that the Finance Committee looks set to be involved in the development of any new taxes, both the first one and any subsequent taxes. As with income tax, as I said before, it's clearly important that we get this process right, particularly as it's not been done before. Potentially, new taxes could have a rather fundamental effect on the economy now and in the future, going back to that forecasting mechanism I said the Welsh Government needs to develop.
Returning to the current implementation of the Welsh rate of income tax, we need to keep an eye on the anticipated transition costs. They're predicted to be £5 million to £10 million, significantly less than the £20 million to £25 million that was initially predicted for Scotland—or happened in Scotland, I should say. The reason, as stated in the report, is that the Assembly can piggyback on the system developed for Scotland. Now, let's hope that's the case. It probably will be, but at the same time, as we hear often in debates in this place, Wales and Scotland are not the same, and therefore there could be unexpected costs that we're not aware of at the moment. So, we do, as the Chair said, need to keep all of this under review, and the Welsh Government needs to make sure that the mechanism is in place so that if any of this does go awry, the Minister is aware of those problems at the earliest opportunity so that reassurances can be given to the public that taxation devolution is going ahead as it should be.
Very finally, Deputy Presiding Officer, border costs. Mike Hedges will probably mention these. If my former colleague the late Steffan Lewis were here, he would've mentioned it as well. He used to get very worked up on the committee when we endlessly talked about the border. He said that borders work elsewhere in the world and there's no reason they can't work here as well. He's probably right on that. But there will be a cost to issues such as the complex mapping of the Welsh border and that will need to be looked at. It's never been done before effectively, because it was never necessary, but now we're moving down this road, it needs to be done in the future. But I'm pleased to have been part of this debate.