We now turn to the short debate, and I call on Lynne Neagle to speak to the topic she has chosen. Lynne.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. I've agreed to give a minute of my time to Suzy Davies AM.

There's a common theme to every debate through history on raising the compulsory age of education. Politicians begin and often end their case by citing the impact on the economy. In a discussion about raising the school age in the 1960s, the Tory education Secretary, Edward Boyle, described it as a necessity as it would meet an urgent economic need for more middle managers. I certainly do not start this debate, a debate which I do not believe will end today, in the hope of merely securing more middle managers for Wales. I am starting this debate on raising the participation age to 18 in the hope that we can give our young people not just the skills they need at work, but the security, understanding and resilience they need to lead safe and fulfilling lives. I believe that by holding on to our young people for an additional two years, we can ameliorate the risks associated with isolation, loneliness and the often devastating impact of becoming NEET—not in education, employment or training.

The starting point for my case, therefore, is not our GDP or an economic forecast, it is the thematic review of deaths of children and young people through probable suicide. That review, published in 2014 and shortly to be updated, contains detailed case studies and analysis and examines modifiable factors that may have contributed to suicide deaths. It is led by Professor Ann John of Swansea University, who chairs the national advisory group on suicide prevention and self-harm for the Welsh Government, and I want to take this opportunity to pay tribute to Ann for the work that she does day in, day out to prevent suicide in Wales.

It identifies opportunities for prevention and makes recommendations to reduce the risk of suicide for children and young people in Wales. Many Members here know that the prevention of young suicide is something very close to my heart. I spoke at a conference about children's mental health a little while ago, and the theme of my speech was very much about the importance of listening to the voices of young people. At the end, a delegate came up to me and said, 'I wonder what the young people who have died by suicide would say to us if they were here today'. I found those incredibly difficult, challenging and painful words to hear because, of course, we can't ask them. That is why the thematic review is so crucial. It is one of the very few ways we can actually hear the voices of these young people. It is the closest thing we have to retrospective recommendations directly from those young people themselves on how we could've helped them and how to prevent future deaths.

And the second recommendation from that report said this,

'Welsh Government should explore mechanisms to ensure children and young people between the ages of 16 and 18 years are supported in education or training, which includes work based training. This could be enabled by raising the school leaving age to 18 years.'

That recommendation was based on common themes that emerged in the review, and I'm assured will emerge once again in the updated version we can expect in a few weeks.

In the 14 cases that were given in-depth narratives by the review panel, common factors were identified, including the fact that many had specific educational needs or restricted educational attainment. Many were not in education, employment or training, and, as such, received little or no support. And a separate study into social isolation and loneliness in the UK found that, for young adults, it is those individuals who do not progress to further education, training or employment who are most at risk of becoming socially isolated and lonely. This leads to individuals falling behind their peers in the labour market and may result in long-term income deprivation and increased likelihood of social isolation.

By way of contrast, we know the sense of belonging and well-being that educational settings can afford young people, whether that be in school, college or an apprenticeship. The adult learning awards highlight every year the value that education can return to previously troubled lives. Emily's story is one we will all recognise from our communities. A difficult upbringing had left her withdrawn, battling with mental health issues and low self-esteem. At 15, she was diagnosed with anorexia and depression; she had become isolated. But after seeing a teaching assistant work with her son, Emily became inspired to control her anxiety and lack of confidence and enrolled on an adult community learning introduction to childcare course. She has thrived in this learning environment and has progressed on to the level 2 programme as well as taking on other courses. Education gave Emily the chance she needed to battle back from the brink. She isn't alone. I know that good progress has been made in Wales in terms of reducing the number of young people who are NEET and in raising our skills levels across the board, but that is not the case for all.

The Bevan Foundation report, 'I want to be something', told us that one in three year 11 pupils are leaving school without five good GCSEs. The options that face those young people are too confusing, limited and not fit for purpose. The report, again based on young people's actual lived experience, says that the current plethora of courses and programmes means that a minority simply bounce around different schemes before becoming long-term NEET, with negative consequences for the rest of their lives.

One of the standout quotes in that report was from someone trying to guide young people through that confusing new reality. They said:

'a lot of young people that we’ve got have major anxiety issues, mental health issues…School is a good kind of structured approach for them and there’s support for them…When that support stops, when that structure and that routine stops, what we find is that young people retreat into their bedrooms…and don’t leave'.

And it is this confusion and this letting go at too early an age that makes me think we need to move to a system of compulsory education or training up to 18. This is a change that has been introduced in England, with cross-party support, and where levels of NEETs in young people is now below that of Wales. Central to the debate that brought about that change was a recognition that people from the most deprived backgrounds, who had the most to gain from continuing education, would be less likely to participate voluntarily.

So, the value of this policy, I believe, is that it puts the onus and responsibility on Government and not on young people themselves. We could develop the perfect pathway for every teenager in Wales, but, by placing the responsibility on them to find their own way, we're self-evidently going to lose a whole tranche of children most vulnerable to becoming NEET in the first place. And, while raising the age of participation would not capture them all, it would mean that they all should be offered opportunities and that there is some oversight of 16 and 17-year-olds, who are, essentially, still children.

I do not contend, though, that we merely copy the example of England. I think we would do well to look to Ontario, where this change was introduced in a comprehensive way, giving learners genuine and clear choices about how to complete their education journey. It involves the whole community, not just schools and colleges. The 2006 Act passed in Ontario is clear in its ambition. It says that the province as a whole will

'Affirm that no initiative is more essential to the province's future than a plan that ensures young people keep learning until they graduate or turn 18, whether it is in classroom or through equivalent learning opportunities, such as an apprenticeship or workplace training program'.

I think England took the idea of raising the participation age forward without fully learning from Ontario's accompanying initiatives, like the student success programme, for example. Student success teams in Ontario provide extra attention and support for individual students who need it. They have the opportunity to benefit from individualised attention and support, choose from more options for learning, such as expanded co-operative education, specialist high skills majors, dual credits and e-learning. And, crucially, they are given help to solve problems they previously may have faced alone.

By following more closely the example of Ontario, we would avoid some of the mistakes we've seen in England. Indeed, I think we already have two obvious advantages to delivering this kind of change in Wales, distinct to our own policy agenda. Firstly, we have a genuinely comprehensive form of secondary education and less marketisation of the schools and college system. This will reduce complexity in delivering different options for learning in different settings. Secondly, the history of raising the participation age is one of policymakers putting the cart before the horse. First, the age limit has been increased, but only after that change does there come proper evaluation and reform of the curriculum. So, in Wales at the moment, we have the chance to do this the right way around. As my committee's 'Mind over matter' report noted, the current reform of the curriculum presents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to mainstream emotional well-being and mental health in education. And, as the Minister has said, the point of these reforms is to construct a system powered by purpose and the type of citizens we'd like to see.

This is about shaping our society for the better, not just developing more effective economic agents and consumers. Central to that bigger, more important mission is the necessity to hold on to our learners for as long as we can. We do have an opportunity to do the right thing the right way in the right order here in Wales. I believe we owe it to our young people to take it.

As Michelle Obama wrote about her own schooling:

'Through my education, I didn’t just develop skills, I didn’t just develop the ability to learn, but I developed confidence.' 

I can't think of a time when our children need that confidence more than they do today, faced with economic uncertainty, social fracture and a deepening mental health crisis. Sometimes, as policy makers, we cannot see the wood for the trees. I believe that is what's happening here. None of us want to see our children and young people lonely and isolated, none of us disputes the damaging long-term effects of being NEET, none of us disputes the positive impact the right education setting has on the well-being of children and young people. All of us want an education system that responds to the emotional needs of our pupils, as well as the economy, and yet we seem shy of making the one change that would speak to all these things. Raising the participation age in Wales is surely an idea whose time has come. Thank you.

Thank you ever so much for that, Lynne. I listened with great interest and with my shadow Minister hat on. Certainly, I'd like to see the reports you referred to, but also I thought the idea itself has a lot of merit in it. I appreciate what you said about the English system; what I would say is that bit of it—it's work, education or training, and perhaps where there's always space for a little bit more innovation is to look at what training actually looks like. The point you made about—was she called Emily—actually getting, later in her life, a brand-new start, effectively, through adult education is not something we should overlook either, because there'll always be people who lose out first time, even second time. That's why I just wanted to mention briefly, if you don't mind, that it wasn't so very long ago that it was the over-50s who were the largest cohort of people who were unemployed not through choice. So, I just want to mention the work of Prime Cymru, who actually help re-educate people who are much older than those who you are talking about, to give them their fourth chances, if you like, even to start businesses of their own in their late 50s. So, we are talking about education as a lifelong experience, but the particular points you've made in your short debate today I think are really interesting, so thank you very much for bringing them to our attention.

Thank you. Can I call on the Deputy Minister and Chief Whip to reply to the debate—Jane Hutt?

Thank you very much, Deputy Presiding Officer, and I'd like to also thank Lynne for bringing forward this debate today. I do recognise the case that Lynne has made very powerfully this afternoon with regard to the compulsory education age. I think it's important, of course, to emphasise the Government's commitment, as you already have recognised, Lynne, to genuine lifelong learning and the cultural well-being and economic benefits this brings to individuals and society at large. Of course, the Welsh Government has committed to explore a new Welsh right to lifelong learning.

We recognise, and this has been set out by the Learning and Work Institute Wales, that adult learning helps develop a sense of self, improves personal health and tackles social isolation, and Suzy has commented on that just now. It is important that we learn about how this can be delivered, so Welsh Government officials recently attended a seminar at the DOVE workshop in Banwen on how we take forward that right to lifelong learning. That was a particular focus on the role of adult education and empowering citizens, and a strong connection was made to the purposes of the new school curriculum, which you, of course, have mentioned. Clearly, that should drive a new purpose in terms of empowering our young citizens.

I think we'd all agree that enabling ethical, informed, ambitious and healthy learners could be the purposes for a whole education system and not just stop at 16. So, I wanted to underline those points about learning from cradle to grave, of continuing education and its economic and social benefits, before coming back to the issue of raising the age of compulsory education.

As you pointed out, we don't have a policy of compulsory education after 16 years of age, but it doesn't mean that we don't provide for our young people after that age—far from it. We are ambitious in our agenda to reform the post-16 strategic funding and planning context through our post-compulsory education and training proposals, including a new commission for tertiary education and research. Our national mission mustn't stop at the school gates. In keeping with our strategy for the school system, our aim is to promote better quality, challenge poor performance, celebrate and share good practice, and raise standards across the board. We want a system that motivates people so that they want to remain in education and training.

The Welsh Government is yet to see any conclusive evidence that compulsion is a better approach than encouragement when it comes to progression from 16, and I recall these discussions when I was formerly education Minister. At that time we were introducing and driving forward the 14-19 learning pathways policy, and it is pleasing to see that that has made an important, positive impact. All young people at post 16 are offered a minimum of 30 choices, which includes at least five vocational choices, and, by enabling learners to follow courses that they see as being relevant to their needs, interests and aspirations, we believe this will help them to develop those skills that are necessary for progressing into higher education or high-skilled employment. But learning and training is not just about gaining skills and qualifications, as, obviously, you've made so clear, and it has to be about the whole person. The education system must help children and young people to address their needs, but also enable them to be well rounded and compassionate in their own way.

Will you take an intervention? Thanks for giving way, Jane. We shouldn't forget, of course, the valuable role of apprenticeships as well. A lot of young people, or a proportion of young people, who leave earlier in the school life do so because they don't really feel that what they're doing is for them, but we've seen from the example of some apprenticeships being taken up that that can fill that gap. So, I'm not saying that that should take over from what you're talking about, Lynne, but I think the two go together.

Well, yes, and I think that's something, again, where we have invested in apprenticeships, which have been the right pathway for many young people, and sometimes those apprenticeships also can lead to further and higher education beyond the time of that apprenticeship, and making those apprenticeships open and accessible as well as being funded is crucially important. We've got to make sure that our schools and colleges are supportive places that help to sustain the well-being of our learners.

So, we come onto the important points that Lynne Neagle has raised about the emotional and mental health of our young people, which is paramount. We want to make sure they're fully supported through each stage of their education to be emotionally and mentally resilient, confident, and, above all, happy. That's why I'm pleased we as a Government are working with the health Minister and yourself as committee Chair on implementing the Government's response to the Children, Young People and Education Committee's inspiring committee report, 'Mind over matter'. I'm glad, also, to have the opportunity to join you in thanking Professor Ann John for her work, and I note the exchange you had with her at the Health, Social Care and Sport Committee, and that was back last year, on suicide prevention. I note that she did say a lot of recommendations from the thematic review were being followed up, and I think the timing of this debate is key, that we take stock of what is happening, and the work on 'Mind over matter', which had such strong support across this Chamber, has to be implemented in terms of the Government response. We know that ensuring mental health and well-being is central to the way schools work is of vital importance. Our children and young people need the right support in the right place at the right time to enable them to grow up in healthy and nurturing environments. This work will give them the best possible opportunity to fulfil their true potential.

In terms of young people not in education, employment or training, yes we can be proud of the fact the number of 16 to 18-year-olds is at a record low as far as NEET status, but there is still so much to do, and we recognise that that's where the framework—the youth engagement and progression framework—is having a real impact. We've mentioned apprenticeships, but the percentage of year 11 school leavers has more than halved in terms of those not entering education, employment or training.

So, I want to finish this debate by thanking Lynne Neagle for bringing forward a very important area for discussion, continuing, as she is, to press the case for being ambitious in how we widen access to and participation in education and training. This afternoon we were talking and I was being questioned about the well-being of future generations legislation, and we are talking about the generation—. We are looking after education and caring about today, but it is about the future, our future citizens. You talked about that we need to be powered by our citizens of the future as far as younger people are concerned, and there lessons to be learnt not just from England, the English experience—I know the Minister will want to look at the experience in Ontario. I know that she will want to meet you to follow up this debate, which has been very significant, and I know will be of great interest to our learners and educators in Wales.

Thank you very much. That brings today's proceedings to a close. Thank you. 

The meeting ended at 18:31.