When the UK Government published a White Paper in December last year, outlining its plans for immigration after we leave the European Union, there had been no prior engagement with the Welsh Government, despite previous assurances that this would happen. The plans in the White Paper ignore the weight of evidence presented to the Migration Advisory Committee about the negative impact on the economy of a more restrictive approach to migration. Work that we commissioned from the Wales Centre for Public Policy, which I'll refer to in more detail in a moment, has confirmed that we are right to remain deeply concerned about this approach, which is highly restrictive and will undoubtedly have a detrimental effect on the Welsh economy and public services.

In 'Brexit and Fair Movement of People' we had proposed a flexible but managed approach to migration, where people from Europe would be able to move to the UK if they had a prior job offer or had the ability to find a job quickly. We argued that this relatively open approach to migration should be complemented by a rigorous enforcement of legislation to prevent the exploitation of workers and the undermining of wages and conditions, whilst supporting our economy. We set out a rational framework for migration that we believed would not only meet Wales’s needs, but would work for the whole of the UK. However, in contrast to our proposals, the White Paper proposes introducing a single immigration system that will end free movement and the preferential treatment of EU citizens. Both EU and non-EU citizens who wish to come to the UK to work will normally have to apply for a visa, and those earning below a wage threshold will simply not qualify. In the White Paper, the Government suggests the threshold might be set at £30,000, although that isn't yet, thankfully, established policy.

The impact of those proposals would be substantially to reduce EU migration to the UK. The changes would not just impact what the White Paper calls 'low skilled' workers and their employers—those with intermediate skills, for example nurses, care managers and others, would likely also be affected. And I should say that we in the Welsh Government do not wish to describe workers who do work we depend upon as 'low skilled'. We believe that workers with all types of skills add value to our society and to our economy.

To address a number of concerns about the Whitehall plans for immigration, it was crucial that we gathered evidence about how serious the impacts would be. And so, the Welsh Government asked the Wales Centre for Public Policy to examine how the proposed immigration system would affect Wales. This included examining the impact of stopping overseas workers from staying in the UK for more than a year if they earn less than £30,000. The Wales centre published their report in March and, sadly, it only confirmed our fears that the UK Government’s migration proposals would do nothing to help employers and would hit the Welsh economy hard. The Government’s plans would have a real impact on both the private and the public sectors. Wales would be affected proportionally more than the UK as a whole, in terms of the number of people migrating for work, and there would be an estimated reduction to gross domestic product in Wales of between 1 per cent and 1.5 per cent over 10 years.

I am extremely concerned that such a restrictive immigration system after Brexit would lead to real skills shortages in our key economic sectors. For example, we already have a high number of EU citizens working in the food processing and the food hygiene sectors. We also have other vulnerable sectors that are facing challenges with recruitment and retention of staff, such as social care and manufacturing. Demand for care is increasing, and manufacturing is heavily reliant on workers from the EU. Restricting access for labour from the EU is not the answer. Neither is another aspect of the White Paper, which appears to have been introduced at the last minute in a vain attempt to reassure employers—the proposal to introduce a temporary workers scheme, which would enable individuals from certain countries to work in the UK for 12 months only, after which they would have to leave. Dirprwy Lywydd, is it not obvious that such a scheme is absolutely not the answer to skills and labour shortages in sectors such as social care, where what we need is to reduce, not to increase, the turnover of staff. Such a scheme would be both morally repugnant and ineffective.

By contrast, we are clear that if and when we leave the EU, we will continue to need a migration policy that allows Wales to attract the right type of workers to all areas, whether it is health, social care, tourism, higher education or food production. I do not want nurses, junior doctors, and other workers who want to work in our public services and our industries to find it more difficult and less attractive to come to Wales in the future. And this is not just about curtailing rights for those who want to come to our country, Welsh employers are quite rightly worried about whether they will be able to recruit and retain workers from the EU. The sustainability of their businesses often depends on those workers from the EU, as does the job security of the Welsh workers in those businesses.

Even for those jobs that pay salaries above the salary threshold, there will be new burdens. At present, migration from the EEA and Switzerland places very little administrative burden on workers, on employers, or on the UK Government—a passport or identity card suffices to prove EEA or Swiss nationality—and there are no direct costs of immigration. Depending on the system that's implemented and the extent of control exerted, there will be additional financial and administrative burdens on a number of levels. The risks of these costs being extended to include EEA and Swiss nationals will create a significant and costly burden on businesses and is very much a deterrent to growth within the UK. More broadly, there are a whole series of risks relating to the administration, implementation and enforcement of any new system. 

As I made clear last week, the Welsh Government's position is to campaign for a referendum and to remain within the EU. But if we are to leave, it is essential that we persuade the UK Government that their migration policy would simply compound the wilful damage they are inflicting on the Welsh and the UK economy. We need a flexible and managed approach to immigration that is fair and can contribute to our prosperity.

As the WCPP report makes clear, if the UK has to have a salary threshold at all, it should be at a far lower level, perhaps £20,000. The proposal to give Wales, like Scotland, a separate shortage occupations list, whilst welcome, is not the answer if, as at present, occupations on the list are still subject to the same salary threshold. Indeed, the whole concept of a shortage occupations list, as the MAC report of 29 May makes clear, only makes sense in a situation where there are numeric limits on the number of visas available—one malign aspect of the current system that the White Paper does not propose to replicate post Brexit.

Dirprwy Lywydd, to conclude, we must have a fair migration policy in place, one that protects EU citizens who have made Wales their home and that ensures that our future labour market needs are met. Any salary threshold should be well below £30,000. There is broad support for doing this, as well as making sure that the new system is as flexible and as user-friendly as possible. We need to ensure that Wales is still seen as an attractive place to live and to work and that we are still a welcoming nation. My officials are involved in a 12-month engagement process with the Home Office, the Scottish Government and the Northern Ireland Executive, where different aspects of the immigration White Paper are being discussed every month. I will continue to persist in more engagement with the Home Office, at a ministerial level and on official level, and I will continue to make sure that the best interests of Wales and of our people are fully represented.