Well, I very much enjoyed the fiscal and economic lecture from Mark Reckless and I’ll give him one back, because the UK economy has underperformed relative to all other major economies since the decision to call the EU referendum was announced in 2015. Since the referendum itself, GDP—and Mark Reckless wanted to talk about GDP—is estimated to be between 1 and 2 percentage points lower than would otherwise have been the case. And for illustrative purposes, that equates to between £300 and £600 per person each year in Wales. National income or GDP decreased by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year. GDP per head decreased by 0.4 per cent. Business surveys suggest momentum has remained negative in the third quarter. If GDP contracts in the current quarter, the UK economy will be in recession. At best, mainstream forecasters expect the economy to grow at only a moderate pace over the next couple of years, even if the UK exits the EU in an orderly fashion.

Borrowing—and Mike Hedges referred to borrowing—has increased sharply in the first four months of the current financial year, running well ahead of the OBR’s forecast for the spring budget. The UK Government’s spending round will add further to borrowing, so that the UK Government’s fiscal rules on borrowing and debt may be breached, which means that there’s a high probability that another round of austerity will feature in the near future. The UK Government borrowed £24 billion in the most recent financial year, equivalent to 1.1 per cent of GDP. In the first four months of the current financial year, borrowing is up substantially compared to a year ago. The UK Government's policy on Brexit is trashing the economy. The latest survey data, as Mark Reckless said, is showing that the UK may already be in a recession. The survey data that's used is survey data from the purchasing managers' indices, which have generally got a good and reasonable record of anticipating official data. They indicate that the second quarter's growth rate could be flat or slightly negative, and much will depend on the outcomes for September, which will in turn be influenced by the extent to which businesses and consumers anticipate a 'no deal' Brexit, and, even if third quarter growth is positive, this may be driven by stock building in anticipation of Brexit. So, if this were to be the case, underlying growth could still be negative. So, I hope that that has helped clarify the situation and helped clarify the comments in my statement.