Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:05 pm on 17 September 2019.
Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. I thank the Minister for his statement. What an almighty mess the UK Government is making of things. The Prime Minister is found to have lied to the Queen and is happy to gag Parliament and to flout the rule of law. As you've said, Minister, if prorogation continues—and it's no guarantee, considering how the Supreme Court case seems to be going—but if prorogation does continue, MPs will return with only 17 days before the day when Boris Johnson continues to insist against the law, against all reason, that we will leave the EU, come what may. 'Do not waste this time' is what we were warned by Donald Tusk. Well, the Westminster Government has shown how tin eared it can be—how deaf to all cries of reason, compassion or sense.
The Yellowhammer documents published by the UK Government make hardly any mention of Wales, so it's useful that the Welsh Government has decided to publish its 'no deal' action plan. Given it is a hefty document, I won't offer any criticism of the plans before I've fully finished analysing them, but I'd also like to place on record my own thanks to public sector workers who are working tirelessly in the back rooms, behind the scenes, and diligently, to prepare for this possible disaster.
Yesterday, the First Minister informed the external affairs committee that the Welsh Government had received more detailed information from the UK Government than has been published in Yellowhammer, and it's obvious that this information has informed your action plan. The contingencies the Welsh Government is preparing for, based on that advice, are nothing short of sickening. I think it is shameful that the Conservative spokesperson is claiming this is project fear and can so easily dismiss major disruption to the movement of people and goods, chaos at ports and airports, possible food and medicine shortages, major disruption to trade, which could, and I quote,
'risk the sustainability of some businesses and have a negative impact on jobs and wages', rising inflation, lower economic growth, with low-income households worst affected, a perfect storm of job losses, wage decreases, and rising costs, the farming and fishing sectors being, and I quote again, 'hit particularly hard', advanced manufacturing facing disruption due to problems with just-in-time supply chains, service sectors likely to be significantly affected, an increase in inflation having a significant impact on social care providers, a possible loss of citizens' rights and the imposition of a hostile environment. The list goes on and on.
And let's be absolutely clear about this. Even though these effects sound like the ramifications of war or a natural disaster, they are the expected consequences of current UK Government policy. If they take us over the cliff edge, if they inflict 'no deal' on Wales and the rest of the UK, they will never be forgiven. This could even eclipse the disastrous effects that Thatcher's deindustrialisation policies had on Wales.
So, I do find it startling, Minister, that the very first matter that the 'no deal' action plan discusses is making the case for the union of the UK. Surely, if the UK Government inflicts 'no deal' on Wales, there would be no case. Leaving the union would be a priority, once we've dealt with the short-term emergency. Forty-one per cent of the Welsh population say they would vote for independence as a way to remain in the EU, and that is now, before the disaster of 'no deal' has happened, and that figure is happening now when people know more of the facts as well. The Welsh Government must stop shoring up a union that will have failed us. The First Minister himself has said that the UK is a voluntary union. If support for independence rises further, then the calls for an independence referendum will become impossible to ignore. You need to start preparing for it now.
I'd like to finish by asking a few questions. Can you tell us how much the Welsh Government has spent preparing for 'no deal' and whether you agree with me that these funds should be reimbursed to Wales in full, as it's a UK Government policy that has necessitated the expenditure? I noticed, as well, that there was no mention in Yellowhammer, or your action plan, about the future of the Pembroke oil refinery, even though the leaks to The Sunday Times suggest that hundreds of jobs there could be at risk. This is apparently what redacted paragraph 15 of Yellowhammer refers to. Are you concerned for these jobs, or is the Secretary of State for Wales correct to say that they're safe? And finally, can you give assurances today that the Welsh Government will make extra funds available over and above the £2 million already earmarked for foodbanks if 'no deal' leads to funding crises for low-income families and individuals, which will almost certainly be the case?