That brings us to our next item, which is a statement by the Brexit Minister: update on the UK proposals for the UK's exit from the EU. I call on the Brexit Minister to make the statement—Jeremy Miles.

Thank you, Llywydd. This afternoon, the Welsh Government will bring forward a series of statements that will outline the real threat to Wales of a 'no deal' Brexit. These statements will also cover the mitigation that we will put in place to address this in so far as that is possible. These build on our action plan published on 16 September and ‘A brighter future for Wales’, which we published last week.

The Deputy Presiding Officer (Ann Jones) took the Chair.

We have always been clear that a ‘no deal’ Brexit would be catastrophic for Wales, and we make no apologies for describing it in that way. The statements this afternoon demonstrate the vast array of short-term, negative consequences across all aspects of Welsh life, whilst devastating the economy in the longer term.

Before moving on to consider the positive actions that we are taking, let’s take stock for a moment about whether 'no deal' remains likely or not. In January, when we provided Assembly Members with an in-depth review of our ‘no deal’ preparations, I’m sure none of us would have imagined that the political situation in the UK, and the constitutional situation, would be in such turmoil. In his first two months in power, Boris Johnson has lost seven major votes in the Commons, lost his working majority, broken the law by trying to suspend Parliament, and has misled the monarch. And he continues to claim that he will take the country out of the EU by 31 October. However, there is an Act on the statute book to prevent that, unless the UK Parliament agrees on a means of exiting. Boris Johnson’s statement on his intention to take the country out of the EU on 31 October, with or without a deal, suggests that he does not intend to comply with the requirements of the legislation.

With just a fortnight to go until the European Council summit, it doesn’t seem likely that we will have time to reach agreement. First of all, the EU has been consistently clear that they will not agree to a new set of arrangements for withdrawal without them having the same impact as the backstop in the Theresa May agreement. As recently as last week, Michel Barnier said,

'The new Government of the UK wants us to get rid of the backstop and wants the EU to change the way the internal market and border controls operate after Brexit. I’m sure you will understand’, he said,

‘that this is unacceptable. Based on current UK thinking, it’s difficult to see how we can arrive at a legally operative solution which fulfils all the objectives of the backstop’.

Even were there support for a fourth meaningful vote, does anyone truly believe that the UK Parliament would pass the necessary legislation to pass the withdrawal agreement Bill in less than a fortnight? Given this, there is a very good chance that we will not see an agreement reached, and we will have to request an extension, as is mandated in law. But an extension will need unanimous agreement from each of the 27 member states of the European Union. We should not fall into the trap that so many politicians and media commentators have fallen into in believing that the final decision rests in our hands. And even if granted, in the worst-case scenario, an extension could only delay the risk of a ‘no deal’ exit for a few months. So, while we have a UK Government that insists on downplaying the scale of the challenges that leaving the EU poses, and whist we have a Prime Minister in the UK who is prepared to defy the law, the risk of a deeply damaging 'no deal' remains.

I know that we will hear plenty of complaints and inconsiderate contributions today about project fear, but the Bank of England has proven that the decision to leave the EU has already cost the economy £80 billion—more than £1,000 for every single person living in this country. And all the evidence that I have seen, including evidence from the UK Government itself, shows that a 'no deal' should be unthinkable. In the short term, a 'no deal' would cause significant disruption, increase the risk of financial instability and threaten the supply of vital goods and services that many in society depend upon. In the longer term, a 'no deal' would permanently damage the economy, damage our international reputation, and depress livings standards across the country to levels not seen since the Conservative Government recklessly destroyed the industrial base in Wales in the 1980s.

We have been clear in our position, and we have evidence to support it: to secure a brighter future for Wales, we must remain within the EU, and we therefore support a second referendum to achieve that aim.

But despite our vigorous opposition to a political strategy on the part of the UK Government that could lead to a 'no deal', it is our responsibility to work with the UK Government to do all we can to mitigate the catalogue of effects that could result from the UK leaving without a deal. The single biggest determining factor impacting on our ability to put in place preparedness plans is the UK Government’s willingness to share information with us, to meaningfully work with us and to provide us with the necessary funds. Here again, the UK Government has failed in its responsibilities, and, as the clock to a 'no deal' exit has ticked on, Welsh Ministers have been locked out of the vital 'no deal' meetings being held in Whitehall. While under Theresa May we were routinely invited to UK Cabinet committee meetings on preparedness, we are now only invited selectively, based on the UK Government’s narrow assessment of our devolution settlement. We have had assurances this will change—this remains to be seen—but, in any case, vital time has been lost needlessly.

Devolved and reserved responsibilities are interdependent. The UK Government is responsible for ensuring imported medicines get into the country, but we, the Welsh Government, will be held to account if Welsh patients find the pharmacies do not have their medicines. The UK Government is responsible for legislation around data handling, but Welsh businesses will look to the Welsh Government to help if they fail because they have employee or customer data held on a server in the EU—possibly without even knowing it—and lose access to that data overnight.

Protecting UK citizens who live overseas is undoubtedly a UK Government responsibility, but if such citizens decide to return to the UK because they no longer can access free healthcare, Welsh public services will face increased demands to provide health and social care if it's needed, and help to find housing. So, the UK Government should be involving us comprehensively with 'no deal' preparations. It is simply unacceptable for the UK Government to think that these are issues in which we should not have a say.

In a series of statements, Ministers will outline some of the key risks we face for public services, the economy and across society. There is simply not time to cover all the consequences of ‘no deal’, but just because an area is not covered in the statements today, it does not mean we are not doing all we can to mitigate the impacts, and the full range of interventions are included in the action plan that we published on 16 September. Over the coming days, the Welsh Government will also be holding a series of key stakeholder meetings to encourage others to continue to take action on preparing for a 'no deal' outcome.

Neither Wales nor the United Kingdom as a whole can be truly prepared for all the possible eventualities. However, I welcome the recognition from the Wales Audit Office that work across Wales has significantly strengthened since March and that work is more collaborative across Wales’s public service. This Welsh Government will do everything we can and will continue to use every opportunity to stop the UK Government taking us over the cliff edge.

Thank you, Minister, for your statement. Another week, another Brexit statement that is meaningless, adds absolutely nothing to what we've heard before other than more shroud-waving from the Welsh Government, trying to spread fear amongst the general population about Brexit. Let's be clear: the people of Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom simply want us to get Brexit done. They are fed up of listening to politicians trying to obstruct the will of the people, which was expressed in the referendum back in June 2016. They want us to get Brexit done so that we can get on with sorting out the terrible mess that the Labour Party have made here in Wales in terms of our national health service and our schools, and, of course, we have a golden opportunity to sort out that mess because of the extra investment that has been made by the UK Government in the NHS and in the education system in England and, as a consequence of that, we have a significant sum, in excess of £2 billion, coming to Wales in the next three years so that we can address the long waiting lists, so that we can deal with the poor emergency department performance in our hospitals, so that we can close the per-pupil funding gap between England and Wales, and so that children here can have equal opportunities with their counterparts in England when it comes to their education and life chances.

And, of course, that investment that's available from the UK Government is only available because of the sound public finances that we now have, because, of course, we picked up an absolute mess from the UK Labour Government when it was previously in power. Our finances publicly were absolutely trashed. Gordon Brown took us to the brink of bankruptcy as a country and it's taken, yet again, a Conservative Government to sort out that mess. Now, unlike the Labour Party—unlike the Labour Party—and some of the other parties in this Chamber, we Welsh Conservatives have got every confidence that the people of Wales will be able to adapt, that they've got the talent to be able to deal with any challenges that might arise as a result of Brexit, and that we will be able to take advantages of Brexit and our departure from the European Union.

Let's just talk about some of these predictions that you're making, because I heard lots of predictions prior to the UK voting to leave the EU in 2016. We heard all sorts of predictions, none of which have come true, because the reality is that, despite Brexit—despite Brexit—since the referendum in 2016—. [Interruption.] And we were told—. [Interruption.] I can hear the squalling coming from the frontbench, but the reality is we were told that, in the immediate aftermath, we would go into an immediate recession, there would be a terrible slump in the stock market, that there would be a disaster for jobs, hundreds of thousands of jobs across the UK would be lost, yet, despite Brexit, since the referendum in 2016, wages have gone up, unemployment has gone down, our economy has grown, our exports are rising and our housing market remains very, very strong. So, can I ask you, Brexit Minister, do you accept that your Government was completely wrong in every prediction that you made that would come to pass to date? Will you abandon the shroud-waving that we're constantly seeing and the doom-mongering that we're constantly seeing and the prophecies of gloom that we're constantly hearing, ringing in our ears from the Labour frontbench?

Will you focus instead on Wales being prepared for Brexit, no matter what sort of Brexit that might be? And let me say, the Prime Minister is pulling out all the stops to try to get a deal before 31 October. I know that you don't necessarily support his efforts, but that is the case, and we would like to see a deal, if that deal is possible. But if it isn't possible, we've got to get out of this European Union on 31 October and honour that referendum result.

Your position as a party, of course, is an absolutely ludicrous position, where you're saying that if Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister, he's going to go to Brussels, he's going to get a completely different deal—which, of course, Brussels say that nobody can get—and he's going to come back and he's going to campaign, for what? He's not said what he's going to campaign for, has he? Because as far as your position on a UK level is concerned, you're going to put this decision back to the people in a referendum. But, of course, you're going to champion him going off to get that deal and then campaign against it. I mean, you couldn't make it up; it's an absolutely ridiculous position to be in. But that, of course, is the modern Labour Party, I'm afraid. That is the modern Labour Party.

Can you tell us, Brexit Minister, what action and assessment the Welsh Government has made of the economic impact of the extra spending that is going to come to Wales as a result of the extra investment in schools and hospitals, and the impact of that across the country in terms of our economy? Because, of course, you're not talking about these things; you're not talking about these opportunities for Wales.

Can you wind up, please?

I know you want to constantly gaze at the navel, but we need to get some optimism—

Will you wind up, please?

—back into this picture. I will. And can I ask one final question, if I may? You've talked about stakeholder engagement events. Wales doesn't need any more talking shops. What we need is a Government that's prepared and braced for Brexit, no matter what that Brexit looks like on 31 October, because we've got a Government in the UK that is determined to take us out on that date, and you should be doing everything you can to support it.

I thank the Member for those points. He talks about the confidence he has in Boris Johnson. I think he used the phrase 'pulling out the stops'—quite remarkable, really. What we've discovered today is a leak that the Government hasn't even yet put a position on the table for the EU Commission to consider, so the notion the Prime Minister has been negotiating for the last few weeks is utterly risible. We're less than 30 days away from the end of the month, and he has yet to put a proposal on the table for the European Commission. So, his confidence, I'm afraid, as is so often the case, is entirely misplaced.

He talks about project fear. I don't know who comes to his constituency surgeries, but I get people coming to mine talking about their concerns about whether they get to stay in the UK, how they can recruit people to work in their businesses, how they can access support for skills training in the future, how they can keep their third sector organisations afloat in the coming weeks. This is not project fear, this is project reality in the lives of my constituents and, I dare say, in yours and everyone else's in this Chamber. I think you do a great disservice to their lived experience by dismissing it as project fear.

The Member talks about the investment that is forthcoming, and he's obviously looked at the banners in the Conservative Party conference that talk about investment in this, that and the other. The notion that, in the context of a 'no deal' Brexit, there'll be an investment from the UK Government in anything is utterly risible. The devastation caused to UK finances from that is going to be very, very significant.

He talks about economic performance since the 2016 referendum. I don't know which country he's living in. We all know the weakness of the pound. Anyone who's spent any time overseas this summer will know how weak the pound is. I heard Carolyn Fairbairn of the CBI yesterday morning talking about investment being 26 per cent under trend in the last three years, with GDP down by 2 per cent, and that's hitting people's pound in the pocket. The UK Government borrowed £24 billion in the most recent financial year, equivalent to 1.1 per cent of GDP, in order to keep the show on the road. 

We know from the manufacturing organisation Make UK how domestic and export orders have been contracting in this quarter for the third quarter in a row, so I don't know what country he lives in, but I'm living the Wales of the real world, and that's why this Government is focused on preparing Wales as best we can for the kind of 'no deal' Brexit that he is only too happy to advocate.

I thank the Minister for his statement. We share concerns about 'no deal', in particular the desperately worrying point he made at the end of his statement that neither Wales nor the United Kingdom can be truly prepared for all eventualities. Now, we all know that it's the most vulnerable people in society who are going to suffer most. Try telling them to adapt to circumstances, as the Conservative spokesperson, Darren Millar has suggested this afternoon in what I think was a truly shameful contribution. Minister, you talk about how the UK Government has failed in its responsibilities—[Interruption.]

Darren Millar, you've had your say, so can we just not have sedentary comments? [Interruption.] We shall not have sedentary comments from you; you've had your say.

Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. Minister, you talk about how the UK Government has failed in its responsibilities and that Welsh Ministers have been locked out of vital meetings, and you say that the situation has deteriorated markedly since Boris Johnson took over the helm. It chimes with what you've told the external affairs committee in the past. Now, I will say again that it's telling that when you were saying this, Members on the Conservative benches were remarking under their breaths that they wouldn't want the Welsh Government in the room either. It's that kind of disrespect for devolution that will probably mean that that party will oversee the break-up of the United Kingdom.

Now, I'm aware that the Welsh Government has put forward proposals, too, for a review of the inter-governmental relations systems that we have. Your words today do not fill me with great confidence that the current Government in Westminster will be amenable to play fair and will actually want to see any reform happen at all. What steps can you take to force that reform, and if, as it's likely you will tell me, you cannot force that reform, what does that tell us about the fundamental imbalance of power in the union that we're currently a part of? Finally, you mention that the UK Government is downplaying the scale of the challenges of a 'no deal'. Now, this, coupled with the fact that the Prime Minister is prepared to defy the law—in these extraordinary circumstances, I wonder if the Minister can give his opinion or his Government's opinion on whether there can now be a case for Boris Johnson to be impeached.

I thank the Member for her questions. She opened her remarks by talking about the impact on the vulnerable of the cumulative effects of a 'no deal' Brexit, and I want to associate myself with her concerns in that respect. I think we have seen, haven't we, as we move closer to a potential departure in the autumn, how great the impact can be on those who are least able to adapt to the risks that lie ahead. We've been pressing that as a Government for a very long time on the UK Government in particular. She's right to say that the pace of involvement has diminished since we saw the new Government come in. They are meeting on a daily basis and we are not invited on a daily basis. I think we need to have a more expansive view, if I could put it like that, of where the actions of the UK Government can impact on Wales and on our devolved responsibilities, even though that may be in a way that is indirect, rather than direct. I consistently make the point that we seek to engage, always, on a constructive and responsible basis in relation to any proposals that come forward.

In relation to the inter-governmental review, she will know, of course, that we are unhappy with the pace of progress in relation to that, but in my most recent meeting with Michael Gove and with the Minister in the Cabinet Office responsible for inter-governmental relations, I pressed on them the urgency of moving forward at pace in relation to this so that we're in a position, by the end of this year, to be looking at specific concrete proposals. But she is right to say that where we are is unsatisfactory. We've been clear that Governments in the UK need to be treated from the perspective of equality and that these institutions need to be founded on the principle of subsidiarity. We have put forward very specific proposals in relation to reforming inter-governmental machinery, building on the proposals in 'Brexit and Devolution' around a council for Ministers and so forth, and I shall be happy to make a report to the Chamber when we have progress to report in relation to that.

May I praise the Welsh Labour Government for bringing a series of open statements to today's Plenary agenda that demonstrate the real and present threat that a 'no deal' Brexit poses to Wales? The danger of 'no deal' is real, it is clear and it is evidenced. Minister, what is your view and the Welsh Government's view on news emanating from Whitehall that the Prime Minister, as part of the much-lauded but highly ambiguous current so-called negotiations between the UK Tory Government and the European Commission, is asking the EU to rule out a further extension to article 50 as part of a new Brexit deal? Minister, isn't this the latest example of a Prime Minister and a Tory Government out of control, a Government that is bereft of trust—potentially Ministers and potentially civil servants—the intention of Boris Johnson being to obviously negate the cross-party Benn Act that compels the Prime Minister to seek that extension to article 50? This matters. It matters to the people of Wales and it matters to my constituents in Islwyn, because their economic futures are being gambled by the reckless and desperate actions of a Tory UK Government that is actually out of touch and out of time.

The Yellowhammer report, written by your own Government in the UK—I was so alarmed to hear in this report to the Chamber of the National Assembly for Wales this afternoon that the Welsh Ministers have been locked out of these vital 'no deal' meetings. This does concern us. It concerns Wales and it definitively concerns my constituents. Theresa May didn't have much going for her, but she had at least the sense and respect to invite Welsh Ministers to the committee meetings of Cabinet to talk about preparedness about Wales. Finally, Minister, what representations can this Chamber, the Minister and the Welsh Government make to the UK Tory Government to urgently ensure that Welsh Ministers are properly briefed and invited to basic meetings where our input is obviously vital and critical for the people and the economy of Wales?

I thank the Member for her questions. In relation to the speculation in the press today about the possible developments in the context of discussions between the Prime Minister and the European Commission, I will just say that we have no visibility of what those are in substance. She will have, perhaps, seen the proceedings of the External Affairs and Additional Legislation Committee at the beginning of last week when a UK Government Minister made it clear that the UK Government's intention was not to share the non-papers, as they're called, which are the preliminary technical papers to any actual engagement and negotiation, with the Welsh Government. There's a question about the extent to which engagement around the negotiations can be effective without having that information shared, and I'm very mindful of how we need to consider our response in relation to that.

As to her specific point about speculation around the Prime Minister seeking to have an extension to article 50 ruled out as part of a deal, I think any attempt to circumvent parliamentary legislation will be very, very heavily scrutinised in the courts if it comes to it. Anything that appears to be an attempt to frustrate the will of Parliament in this respect will be very, very carefully looked at.

I noted, as she did, I think, the proceedings in Parliament last week in response to questions around this matter with the Prime Minister and the nature of his language, which I'm sure many of us in this Chamber would find utterly abhorrent. I heard Mark Reckless utter from a sedentary position a reference once again to 'the surrender Act' as these proceedings are under way, and I can't register enough my disgust at that language. It is that sort of language that leads to stoking fears and anger in the country. I think it's incumbent on all of us to avoid that sort of language if we're in positions of public leadership, and he would do well to remember that.

I think, just finally, on the point about proper briefing and scrutiny, it is the case that we are invited to meetings on a more than weekly basis. The point I want to be clear about is that the pace of preparation in the UK Government has apparently increased at a time when our involvement in the overall picture with them has decreased. That's what I am concerned about. But I think she will find both in the 'no deal' action plan and in the statements that my ministerial colleagues make this afternoon that our energies here are undimmed in the Welsh Government as to the extent to which we are focusing on making sure that Wales is as prepared as it can be.

Minister, thank you for your statement. First, I note from your statement that you claim the Prime Minister has broken the law. Could you please clarify that part of the statement, as it was my understanding that a new law was created? You mention in the statement about an Act on the statute books to prevent the UK leaving on 31 October without a deal. Could you explain what assessment you and the Welsh Government have made of the Act and any possibility of loopholes? You keep saying that the Prime Minister is prepared to break the law. What proof have you got of this?

He said so.

You have no proof of this. It's all assumption on your part and the media's part, as usual. The Minister mentions shortages of vital goods. Would the Welsh Government publish those assessments and the preparations that it has made?

Lastly, in this statement, you mention the risks of 'no deal'. But, would the Minister agree about the risks of no democracy, and the message that we send to the country and the world if we ignore the largest democratic mandate that we have seen, not only as a United Kingdom, but as the largest vote ever seen here in Wales? Diolch.

There were five questions in that set of interventions. The first is about the actions of the Prime Minister. They were decided by the Supreme Court to be unlawful. The second point that she made is my assessment of the impact of the recent legislation around a 'no deal' Brexit. I'm afraid I won't share, in accordance with the Counsel General's convention, my advice to the Welsh Government in relation to that.

She asked me for the proof that I have that the Prime Minister intends to act unlawfully. Well, I have access to the same information that any other Member has, which is the Prime Minister's repeated assertion that we will leave the European Union on 31 October whether that is with a deal or no deal. The Act requires something other than that. So, continuing to assert that appears to put him at odds with the requirement of the legislation. She asked what arrangements we have made to inform people of our actions in relation to shortages. Well, obviously, we've published a 'no deal' action plan, and we're giving statements today.

Lastly, she asked me about the impact, or the risks, of not respecting—as I think she would put it—the referendum. Let me just say this in relation to that last point: we don't take lightly the fact that the 2016 referendum concluded what it did conclude. We spent an awful lot of time seeking to advocate for a version of Brexit that did the least possible damage to Wales, the Welsh economy and our communities. That failed in Parliament because of the Tory leadership contest. In effect, it brought that to an end. So, we have been clear that the solution to the situation that we are in is to seek a referendum. I regard that as a democratic event in itself.

Thank you very much, Counsel General. Can I just say that I know it's a very emotive subject, but it is about listening? When Members have had the opportunity to put questions through, then they should listen to the answers. Certainly, those people whose names are down to speak in future debates should be very careful about their comments from a sedentary position.