We will pay farmers the full value of their basic payment scheme 2019 claim from 2 December. To ensure no business goes without, we have set up a loan scheme that allows us to pay up to 90 per cent of anticipated value for unvalidated claims. We've worked with food manufacturers, supermarkets and other administrations on contingency plans for food supply. There may be some reduction in the choice of foods available, particularly some EU-derived fresh fruit and vegetables. Supermarkets have assured me they are committed to supplying all their stores fairly, whether they are in urban or rural areas.

Many of the chemicals used to ensure a clean water supply come from the EU. We are working with our water companies, and I’m reassured their robust mitigation plans ensure public water services will remain largely unaffected. Responsibility for energy security and markets is with the UK Government. We've worked with BEIS to ensure their preparations meet the needs of Wales. BEIS has assured me there are no significant risks to the supply of electricity, gas or fuels. There are concerns about environment protection after exit. All the legislative environmental safeguards currently in place will be saved. The role of environmental governance outside of Europe is complex and we're working with stakeholders to develop a simple interim approach and the necessary long-term arrangements.

Although I am confident in our preparations, I am not complacent. It would be disingenuous to say there were no risks. While we can mitigate some risks, others are beyond the control of the Welsh Government. For example, if the UK does not obtain third country status from the EU, export of animal and plant products will cease. Proposals to secure this are being discussed with the EU. From the Operation Yellowhammer documentation, we expect significant delays at ports. With shellfish exported live, those delays could mean the difference between catches reaching the continent in prime condition or having the consignment spoiled. Our fishers will face new administrative burdens, such as export catch and export health certificates. To put this into context, the number of export health certificates issued in Wales each year may rise tenfold.

Similarly, almost all of our lamb exports are to the EU. Tariffs will make it difficult for Welsh lamb to compete on the European market. Intensive work is under way with DEFRA to develop contingency plans to prevent these vulnerable sectors from disappearing in the weeks following a 'no deal' exit. These plans would help these sectors be resilient to the initial impacts of a 'no deal' Brexit. However, we are dependent on the UK Government to make funding available for this support, which they have not yet committed to provide. We are supporting farmers in these difficult times: we have reprinted the 'Fit for Farming' booklet, launched a charities partnership, and funded the DPJ Foundation to deliver mental health services for Welsh farmers. We are also promoting the well-being of our fishers.

Not all Brexit preparations are within the gift of the Welsh Government. I am particularly concerned about the preparedness of businesses. It is vital all industries prepare for Brexit. The Preparing Wales website is a key source of advice, and I ask you to urge businesses in your constituencies to visit the website and ensure they have done all they need to prepare. Together with Andy Richardson, the chair of the Food and Drink Wales Industry Board, I wrote to Welsh food and drink businesses to reinforce this message. So, in conclusion, Presiding Officer, we are doing everything under our control to mitigate the impacts of no deal. I am confident we will be as prepared as possible by the end of this month. However, factors remaining outside our direct influence will significantly affect Wales’s overall preparedness—business readiness, operations at UK borders and the tariff regime being key.