Item 5 on our agenda is a statement by the Minister for Environment, Energy and Rural Affairs on preparing the rural economy and fisheries sector for a 'no deal' Brexit. I call on the Minister, Lesley Griffiths.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. Exiting the European Union without a deal would have an immediate and long-term catastrophic impact on rural communities. These impacts will be especially acute in my portfolio. This Government has repeatedly made clear we must not leave without a deal that protects the interests of the environment, businesses and citizens. At the environment, food and rural affairs interministerial group on 9 September, I expressed serious concerns about the UK Government’s pursuit of an EU exit at any cost. The farming, fisheries, food and drink sectors rely on tariff-free imports and exports through open borders with the EU. These sectors also depend on EU workers. No deal, and resulting tariffs and barriers to trade, would be devastating for the employment and economy of rural and coastal communities that rely on these sectors and their associated supply chains. 

The majority of my portfolio’s legislation and systems stem from EU membership, from supporting farmers to managing our fisheries, from environmental protections to protected food names to promote our quality produce. Far from removing red tape, leaving the EU with no deal will bring bureaucracy where none exists—customs declarations, export health certificates, fisheries catch certificates and border checks. This could result in delays, additional costs for businesses and increasing prices for consumers. So, whilst we continue to argue against 'no deal', it is essential that we continue to prepare for it. We have worked with our stakeholders and other administrations to ensure that we are prepared. With the real threat of 'no deal', our attention is on contingency planning for exit this month.

Amending the saved EU legislation to ensure that the same powers and protections are in place has been a mammoth task. I am confident that if we exit on 31 October, we will have a functioning statute book ensuring continued protection of public, animal and environmental health and providing the legal basis to continue trading with the EU. Our readiness programme of 74 projects, jointly with DEFRA and BEIS, provides for an operational system on day one. This will replace EU systems to which we will lose access, including tracking movements of animals and plants, fisheries enforcement and regulation of chemicals.

The Llywydd took the Chair.

We will pay farmers the full value of their basic payment scheme 2019 claim from 2 December. To ensure no business goes without, we have set up a loan scheme that allows us to pay up to 90 per cent of anticipated value for unvalidated claims. We've worked with food manufacturers, supermarkets and other administrations on contingency plans for food supply. There may be some reduction in the choice of foods available, particularly some EU-derived fresh fruit and vegetables. Supermarkets have assured me they are committed to supplying all their stores fairly, whether they are in urban or rural areas.

Many of the chemicals used to ensure a clean water supply come from the EU. We are working with our water companies, and I’m reassured their robust mitigation plans ensure public water services will remain largely unaffected. Responsibility for energy security and markets is with the UK Government. We've worked with BEIS to ensure their preparations meet the needs of Wales. BEIS has assured me there are no significant risks to the supply of electricity, gas or fuels. There are concerns about environment protection after exit. All the legislative environmental safeguards currently in place will be saved. The role of environmental governance outside of Europe is complex and we're working with stakeholders to develop a simple interim approach and the necessary long-term arrangements.

Although I am confident in our preparations, I am not complacent. It would be disingenuous to say there were no risks. While we can mitigate some risks, others are beyond the control of the Welsh Government. For example, if the UK does not obtain third country status from the EU, export of animal and plant products will cease. Proposals to secure this are being discussed with the EU. From the Operation Yellowhammer documentation, we expect significant delays at ports. With shellfish exported live, those delays could mean the difference between catches reaching the continent in prime condition or having the consignment spoiled. Our fishers will face new administrative burdens, such as export catch and export health certificates. To put this into context, the number of export health certificates issued in Wales each year may rise tenfold.

Similarly, almost all of our lamb exports are to the EU. Tariffs will make it difficult for Welsh lamb to compete on the European market. Intensive work is under way with DEFRA to develop contingency plans to prevent these vulnerable sectors from disappearing in the weeks following a 'no deal' exit. These plans would help these sectors be resilient to the initial impacts of a 'no deal' Brexit. However, we are dependent on the UK Government to make funding available for this support, which they have not yet committed to provide. We are supporting farmers in these difficult times: we have reprinted the 'Fit for Farming' booklet, launched a charities partnership, and funded the DPJ Foundation to deliver mental health services for Welsh farmers. We are also promoting the well-being of our fishers.

Not all Brexit preparations are within the gift of the Welsh Government. I am particularly concerned about the preparedness of businesses. It is vital all industries prepare for Brexit. The Preparing Wales website is a key source of advice, and I ask you to urge businesses in your constituencies to visit the website and ensure they have done all they need to prepare. Together with Andy Richardson, the chair of the Food and Drink Wales Industry Board, I wrote to Welsh food and drink businesses to reinforce this message. So, in conclusion, Presiding Officer, we are doing everything under our control to mitigate the impacts of no deal. I am confident we will be as prepared as possible by the end of this month. However, factors remaining outside our direct influence will significantly affect Wales’s overall preparedness—business readiness, operations at UK borders and the tariff regime being key.

Thank you, Minister, for your statement this afternoon, in particular the details that you've been able to provide to the Assembly today. I'd also appreciate a bit of an update, because I notice in your statement you cite 9 September's meeting, but as I understand it, there was an inter-governmental meeting on 24 September as well that involved the devolved administrations/Governments. Obviously, I would assume the information that would flow from that meeting would be far more up to date than from 9 September, in particular, how the Welsh Government are interacting with the UK Government in preparation for a 'no deal', which isn't the Government's position in Westminster. Obviously, the Government's position in Westminster is to secure a deal. It's interesting to note President Juncker's position yesterday, that says that there's every possibility that a deal could be secured at the European heads of state conference on 17 October.

The Government in Westminster has set up a Cabinet committee to look specifically at 'no deal' preparations, under the acronym XO. It has met 48 times, as I understand it, and has made 300 recommendations. I would be grateful to understand how many of those 300 recommendations affect the agri-foods sector in your portfolio, bearing in mind that all these recommendations are in relation to 'no deal' preparation. So, it is important for us to understand where those recommendations are being enacted by the Welsh Government, because that close inter-governmental working is vitally important.

It's also important to understand how your department is interacting with the haulage industry, because a lot of agri-goods are exported out of this country. As I understand it, 88,000 VAT-registered businesses have received the necessary paperwork for the permits to be put in place for them to continue exporting—unhindered, I might add. I would be grateful to understand how many of those 88,000 are in the agri-foods sector here in Wales. Given that this is a 'no deal' statement that you have, I'm assuming that you have this information available to you.

It's also worth remembering that the French authorities have worked tirelessly to adapt the port of Calais so that there is easy transit of goods. Veterinary medicines, in particular, have been identified as category 1 goods, which would have unhindered access into the UK market, in particular Wales. I would be grateful to understand from the Minister how she understands that procedure will work, especially as assurances have been given around veterinary medicines in particular.

In particular, there has been talk today about the fisheries sector, very importantly, getting to market on time. In Boulogne, the French authorities have set up a rapid customs and excise point, which will see goods being able to transit from the UK and into the French market in a 24-hour period. Can she confirm what is her understanding of how that post will operate? Obviously, it is going to be a significant point of entry into the European market. It is the French authorities' contention here that that point of entry into the market would see goods caught today in the UK entering the European market within the 24-hour period. So, many of the scare stories said about fish not being able to reach the market, if you take the French authorities' view of it, that is surely not the case.

I would also be very grateful to understand how the veterinary sector is being beefed up here in Wales. I understand that many hundreds of vets have been trained in extra work to deal with the regulatory environment, as have non-veterinary-qualified professionals, to support them in their work. What amount of those appointments are going to be made available to abattoirs and processing facilities here in Wales, given that many hundreds have gone through the necessary training provision, to make sure that there is no interruption in the flow of veterinary surgeons into abattoirs and the regulatory environment that the processing sector works to?

Could she also enlighten us as to what discussions she has had with DEFRA in relation to the sheep meat sector—because she touches on that in her statement—and in particular, about market intervention that possibly would become available in a 'no deal' scenario? As I understand it from comments in the House of Commons by the Cabinet Minister Michael Gove last week, and obviously your statement here today, these plans do seem to have been worked up to a point of maturity, I would suggest. It would be good to try and get some understanding of how they might operate if they were called upon. It is worth reflecting on farmers' confidence in the sheep meat sector in the breeding sales. At the recent NSA sale in Builth Wells, there was an increase in the averages and clearance rates of breeding stock at that sale. I have attended many farm sales this autumn as well that have seen that confidence exhibited in the marketplace.

As I said, it's not the UK Government's position to leave without a deal. We want to see a deal in place, so that many of these provisions don't need to be called upon. But, from what I can see, there has been huge preparation over the last two months, and I would be grateful to understand from the Minister what preparation she has been making to work with the UK Government to make sure that some of these 300 recommendations are in place, to make sure that as smooth an exit from the European Union as possible on 31 October can be accommodated.

Thank you, Andrew R.T. Davies, for that list of observations and questions. I'm not so sure that I share your confidence in the fact that the UK Government are working to secure a deal. Certainly, the last meeting I attended of the quadrilateral—. You referred to a meeting on 24 September, which was last Tuesday; I'm not aware of any ministerial meeting, and certainly if it did go ahead, it went ahead without me. The last one I attended was on 9 September and we will have another one this month, in Edinburgh. So I'm not aware of any other. It might have been an officials' one, but it certainly wasn't a ministerial one.

I'm obviously aware of the XO meetings that are chaired by Michael Gove, which ministerial colleagues either attend or telephone into, and we are working through those recommendations. You'll be very aware that my department, as I said, has got 74 live Brexit preparedness projects; 47 of them are primarily DEFRA-led, and 8 are led by BEIS. I think it's fair to say that officials and I have very good working relations with DEFRA; with BEIS not so much. You will have heard my colleague Ken Skates refer to the fact that a meeting that we've long waited for, which should have gone ahead on Monday in London, has now been pulled, just this morning. So, I think BEIS need to step up now and have that same quadrilateral ability to get to grips with many of the issues.

In relation to haulage, that's something that's within the portfolio of Ken Skates, and he will have heard you ask about the number of that 88,000. I don't have those numbers, but I will ask the Minister to update you on that.

Veterinary medicine is obviously something that is very important and something that the agricultural sector in particular are very concerned about, and I've had those discussions with the farming unions. Again, listening to some of your comments around confidence in the meat sector, both the unions, both the NFU and the FUW—and I'm meeting with them tomorrow; I have my next stakeholder round-table meeting tomorrow—that's not the feeling that they have. I think they're really, really concerned about the market for sheep meat going forward.

I haven't seen the detail that you were talking about in relation to Boulogne, but obviously much of our shellfish goes to Spain, for instance, and certainly we have some real concerns around fisheries. I mentioned the bureaucracy that we think will come in. We don't want shellfish to be spoiled. We're used to our shellfish being caught and being exported within a very close period of time, and being served on plates in restaurants in southern Spain, for instance. So I think it's something that we are concerned about. The fact that we will need catch certificates, the fact that we will need export health certificates is something that the sector will have to plan for.

I am concerned, too, around the well-being of our fishers. We haven't been able to engage with them, I think, in the way we have with the agricultural sector because there were so many charities already there that are helping us with the well-being of our farmers. So we have set up the charity partnership I referred to in my statement to do that.

In relation to the vets, we have taken on I think it's an extra 90 vets, particularly looking at the health certification. So, I had some funding from the EU transition fund to recruit that. In relation to abattoirs, I don't think we have a concern about—. You referred to hundreds of vets being trained; well again, that's not the impression that I have. We are concerned because so many, a very high percentage, of our vets are EU nationals, and we are concerned that they will leave to return home. Yesterday, I was in Dublin for the ocean energy conference, but I had a meeting, I took the opportunity to meet with Dawn Meats/Dunbia, and clearly they are very concerned about how they are going to employ the number of EU nationals that have left their employment. I think they referred to about 50 having left in recent times, and it's very, very hard to recruit, and they are very concerned about recruitment.

In relation to your questions about the sheep sector, I've made it very clear to DEFRA, and they accept that if there is a 'no deal', the sheep sector will need support. We have worked very hard on joint policy with DEFRA and with the Scottish Government, and with Northern Ireland, to come forward with a scheme. We think it's really important that a scheme is—. So, we have common action to be taken across all the administrations to provide the support that's needed. We don't want to create distortions of competition between different parts of the UK, but of course the most important thing in relation to that is that we do get that funding from the UK Treasury, and Members will have heard me say many times that, unfortunately, we haven't had that commitment. I don't have the funding in my budget and any new intervention would require additional funding from the UK Government. We need to get that assurance from Treasury, and we'll continue to work for that.

Thank you, Minister, for your statement, you make a number of valid points. I think there is certainly an irony that a number of people who wanted to leave the EU wanted to do so because of a perceived bureaucracy, and now of course they're facing greater bureaucracy from a 'no deal' Brexit, which I think is food for thought for many people.

I also share your concerns that food supplies will be fairly available in rural areas as well as in urban areas, and I'm glad that you've sought some level of assurance from supermarkets. Certainly, we need to hold them to their word on that. Of course, the UK Government's Yellowhammer document said that the risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption is one that we need to be mindful of. I'm just wondering how you're preparing for that particular potential scenario and the impact that would have, because you make no reference to it in your statement. 

You tell us in the statement and the Welsh Government document on preparing for a 'no deal' Brexit, published recently, also talks about a possible market intervention for the sheep sector. You've touched on it just there and you've made it clear that you would depend on the UK Government to meet the cost of any potential intervention. What if they don't come up with the goods? Surely, you must have some sort of plan in mind to try and mitigate as best you can any potential impacts through some sort of intervention. I'd be interested to know what plan B might be.

We know as well, of course, that the beef sector is very much struggling with a number of farmers at the end of their tether in that particular sector. And if, for both beef and lamb, we see high tariffs and high standards being levied on domestic produce and low tariffs and lower standards being levied on what will no doubt then be cheaper foreign imports, then Welsh farms simply won't be able to compete, and in many cases probably won't be able to survive. 

We heard over the summer from a number of people about the possibility of civil unrest and port blockades and the like, as farmers of course try to protect their livelihoods. I'd be interested in knowing what preparation the Welsh Government might have undertaken, indeed what discussions you might have had with the relevant authorities around such possibilities. There's no reference in your statement to that, and of course the closer we get to a 'no deal' Brexit then I'd imagine the more likely that kind of outcome becomes. 

Finally, I did ask you on 17 July whether, given the need for Government to direct all of its resources to mitigating the impacts of a 'no deal' crash out, you would look at pausing other pieces of work that the Government are currently undertaking, such as of course the consultation on 'Sustainable Farming and our Land'. At the time, you said that you wouldn't pause that consultation and that you wouldn't take people off that piece of work. As the prospect of a 'no deal' crash out is becoming increasingly likely, will you now tell us that that is something that you are considering? You wouldn't do it in July, but I'd ask you please to confirm as much as that today.

Diolch, Llyr, for your questions. I think you're quite right about the irony. Certainly, I think that our fishers in particular are going to be faced with much more bureaucracy and red tape. Clearly, they are a very vulnerable sector and, along with the sheep sector, we've made it very clear that they will need additional support. 

You ask if we have a plan B. Well, as I say, I have not got millions of pounds stashed away in my budget to be able to support the sheep sector in the way that we have discussed, forming that joint policy with the UK Government and the other administrations. So, we would have to look very carefully at how we could find that money. But, I have to say, you will have heard the Prime Minister say, and you can either believe him or not, that he would support the agricultural sector. He's said that many times. I am now continuing to seek assurance from the UK Treasury that they will provide the funding in the way that we have discussed for many months now to support the sheep sector. Certainly, if I was a betting person, I would say that they will do it, because I do absolutely believe them when they say that they understand the impact on the sheep sector, and they just would not allow it to happen if we did have a 'no deal' Brexit. 

In relation to fisheries, we need to again look at the funding that we would be able to use to support our fishers, because it's very clear that the impact of a 'no deal' Brexit probably would happen very, very quickly—even quicker than the sheep sector. So, we will need to look at a way of protecting that industry.

Obviously, civil contingencies sit in the portfolio of my colleague Julie James, and she is making a statement later on, but I have had discussions, particularly with one of the farming unions, around civil unrest, because over the summer the Farmers Union of Wales made their view very clear around their concerns. So, I have taken the opportunity to work with them to see what we can do to mitigate that. We can't mitigate everything, but I think it's obviously an issue that is high up on our agenda.

You referred to panic buying and food, and I think the message that we've been trying to give to people is that, okay, there might not be the choice, but the food will be there. And I've worked to have discussions with supermarkets and with logistics companies, and the Brexit Minister and I are arranging to speak to some of the supermarkets again and some of the main logistics companies in Wales to make sure that they are still in that position.

In relation to using all our resources, you will be aware that I've had to move officials from pieces of work. I still don't want to suspend the consultation. I think it's more important than ever that we prepare for what is to come. And clearly, things are going to be very different. So, I want to continue to work with everyone, particularly around the co-design. I have just had another letter, not that long ago, from one of the farming unions asking me to do that. I've reflected; we've had a look at the number of consultation responses that were coming in and, again, at the moment, I am not going to suspend the consultation.

Thank you, Minister, for your statement, which paints rather a grim picture. I just wanted to pick up on a couple of points. You say that the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy has assured you there are no significant risks to the supply of electricity, gas or fuels. I wonder if I could probe that a bit further and ask on which basis are they giving that assurance. What evidence are they providing? What proportion of UK energy needs are currently imported from Europe—most relevantly, of course, in November and December, which are the two months immediately after Halloween? Clearly, we need to be prepared for the possible rationing, I suppose, of energy, if we can't get gas supplies from Europe, which I know in the past we've depended on.

Equally, on the food issue, it's good to hear the supermarkets are reassuring us that they are going to continue to supply all their outlets. You say there may be some reduction in the choice of foods available, particularly EU-derived fresh fruit and vegetables, and that's rather patently obvious, if we have a disrupted passage of materials from our ports. I just wondered what sort of import substitution plans the Government could have, because, unfortunately, this so-called 'clean break', otherwise known as a catastrophe, is likely to go on for longer than just a couple of months. So, I wonder what advice you're giving to farmers and families to plant winter vegetables, as a precaution, to guard against this potential loss of fresh fruit and vegetables. I appreciate that this is not the right time of year to be rushing into this, but something is better than nothing. Thank you.

Thank you, Jenny. In relation to the question around energy security, the responsibility, obviously, for energy security and energy markets lies firmly with the UK Government. So, we've engaged extensively—well, officials have—with BEIS policy officials, to make sure that their analysis and the preparations that they're bringing forward take into account the needs of our communities and our industries. And at the moment, we are happy with the assurances that we've been given. However, this is something that I really want to take to a ministerial level and it's just been very, very difficult to engage with BEIS Ministers. I mentioned in an earlier answer that my colleague Ken Skates and I were due to meet with Andrea Leadsom on Monday. It's this morning been pulled, so work is going on to try and bring that meeting back, because I think it's really important that we do have that assurance that you are seeking.

I've also been pushing for improved governance arrangements around energy in relation to our climate emergency and our decarbonisation targets, because, clearly, there's a synergy between them. So, I think it's really important—obviously, there are lots of interdependencies between devolved and reserved policies, and it's really important we get that assurance, and that we look for any future policies to take that into consideration.

In relation to food supply, I think it was really important that we asked the question of our supermarkets around that fair distribution to not just urban supermarkets, but also our rural shops and supermarkets too.

In relation to the planting of winter vegetables, I don't think farmers would need advice from me; I think this is something they've been looking at. This has been coming for quite a while, so we've been working with those agricultural businesses and other food and drink businesses to make sure they look at their business plans to see what more they can do.

I think you're quite right—I hear this all the time: 'We just need to get Brexit over—we just need to get Brexit over.' Well, this is going to last not just for months, but for years and years, and it's really important that we do all we can to mitigate the impacts. But I think people have to be realistic about what is going to come down the line.

I thank the Minister.