Inevitably, the success of the scheme has resulted in the costs of the scheme rising. With changes to our population demographic since the introduction of the scheme, our real challenge now is to make sure that the scheme is sustainable and fit for purpose for the future. Projections indicate that the number of people eligible for free travel under the current scheme will be 880,000 by 2021 and over a million by 2030. This rise potentially puts the viability of the scheme at risk in future.

The age profile of our population is rising. Those over 60 are increasingly active, both physically and economically. That is why we've been looking at options for managing rising costs without affecting the eligibility of those persons currently entitled to a concessionary fare pass, in a way that ensures a fair scheme that achieves our policy intentions in the long term. We remain committed to retaining entitlement for free travel at any time and we recognise its importance to the independence of pass holders, but we must also give consideration to making changes to the eligibility criteria for new applicants to keep the scheme sustainable.

Therefore, we are proposing to gradually increase the age of entitlement to a concessionary pass over a number of years so as to eventually align it with the state pension age. Incremental increases in the age of entitlement will mean that there will not be a sudden change. Those persons approaching 60 when the changes come into effect who expect to receive their pass at 60 will not have to wait until they reach the state pension age to get one. With a gradual increase in the age of eligibility, those people will receive a pass before attaining the state pension age. We are also proposing to make similar amendments to eligibility for discretionary concessionary schemes operated by local authorities. In making these amendments to the mandatory scheme, we'll be able to continue to offer a scheme that is more generous than in England, where pass holders can catch any bus at any time in Wales with no charge.

Now, I appreciate that there will be concerns about these proposals, including what they mean for current pass holders. However, I would like to make it absolutely clear that any person who holds a concessionary pass at the time the changes to the law are made will not lose their entitlement to that pass in any circumstances.

The Bill also makes changes to the residency requirements for the schemes in Wales. Eligibility will be restricted to an older or disabled person whose sole or principal residence is in the authority’s area. Currently, those aged 60 and over are entitled to apply for a permit if they have a residence in a Welsh local authority area. Once the new changes come into effect, only those people whose sole or principal residence is in Wales will be eligible for a permit. Again, any person who currently holds a permit whose sole or principal residence is not in Wales will retain their pass until it expires. The changes brought about by this piece of legislation will not come into force before April 2022. Therefore, anyone who reaches the age of 60 before this date will not be affected by these changes.

Research undertaken for Welsh Government showed that free travel in and of itself is not sufficient for travellers to make a modal shift from the car to public transport. Amongst other things, improved bus reliability, better integration and accessible information are also key factors that can help us achieve this shift. Our wider suite of bus reform measures, both legislative and non-legislative, and our multi-modal metro ambitions are aimed at addressing these concerns. So, whilst there is a temptation to look at the concessionary fares scheme for older and disabled persons in isolation, it is absolutely vital to consider it in a much wider context of securing the long-term viability of bus services in Wales.

I would like turn to the separate but related subject of the concessionary travel cards renewal programme, which began on 11 September, and which Transport for Wales is undertaking on behalf of the 22 local authorities in Wales. Since the launch of the renewal programme, Transport for Wales has received now over 210,000 online applications, which is about 95 per cent of all applications received to date. Due to the huge surge in demand on the first couple of days, the website was taken offline and, during this time, significantly more capacity was built and extensive capacity testing took place, in partnership with Age Cymru and the Older People’s Commissioner for Wales. Paper applications were available to download from the Transport for Wales website, by post on request via the helpline, and also, of course, available via local authorities.

Local authorities have been involved at all stages of the design and build over the past nine months. Regular bulletins have been circulated to local authorities and partners to keep them updated throughout the programme to provide as much as support as possible. Transport for Wales has been responding to queries from thousands of members of the public, the Welsh media and elected colleagues to reassure them that there’s plenty of time to apply and the current bus passes are valid until 31 December this year. I've been pleased with the level of engagement with Assembly Members, showing openness and transparency and a connected approach, which I very much welcome.

The programme has been widely shared on social media, which has generated a high volume of applications and queries from applicants and those applying on people’s behalf. The Transport for Wales team is committed to continuing to support local authorities and colleagues, and will attend relevant community events and locations as the programme continues through this autumn. I'd urge colleagues to get in touch with Transport for Wales if there are local events and gatherings taking place to allow them to have an opportunity to further promote the changes across communities, on a face-to-face basis.