5. What assessment has the First Minister made of the financial impact that independence from the rest of the UK would have on Wales? OAQ54510

I thank the Member for that question. In 2017-18, the gap between taxes raised in Wales and public spending for the benefit of Welsh people stood at £13.7 billion. That gap is filled through our membership of the United Kingdom.

I thank you for that, First Minister. Given that the UK national debt is around £2 trillion, which, of course, is not an English-only debt—. So, with one in 20 people in the UK living in Wales, that would make Wales's share of that debt £100 billion, with a daily interest of £7 million. Does this not make the case for independence a little less desirable than that which was espoused so jubilantly in Swansea's Grand Hotel?

Well, Llywydd, what the Member does is to identify one in what would be a much larger and even more complicated pattern that would have to be addressed were Wales to be independent from the rest of the United Kingdom. The answer I gave originally shows the gap that is currently filled through UK resources here in Wales. There are fiscal transfers between the UK and Wales worth £4,000 per head of the Welsh population every year. That money would have to be found from somewhere. But the questions are not for me to answer, Llywydd. The questions are to be answered by those people who make this proposition, and, if they expect their proposition to be taken seriously, then they will be expected to provide serious answers to these questions.

Well, it's an interesting question by Dave Rowlands. I could hear supporters of Welsh independence clamouring that they don't care about the financial impact of independence: they just want their country back. Well, where have we heard that—[Interruption.] Where have we heard that before? [Interruption.] First Minister, your own statistics—[Interruption.] 

You're making up quotes now.

Fake news.

You're making it up, aren't you?

Fake news?

You don't need to listen to people—[Interruption.]—not on their feet. You carry on to ask your question.

I'm surprised they weren't more worked up listening to the original question, but there we are. First Minister, isn't the reality of the situation—? You gave some very good statistics there, but isn't the reality of the situation that, day-by-day, Wales is steadily growing increasingly financially autonomous as a part of the United Kingdom, and, when it comes to tax devolution and borrowing powers, increasingly so? We've come a long way, and, in fact, I don't think, 20 years ago, people would have imagined that the Assembly would have the powers that we do today.

But the important issue now—aside from grand issues of independence, the important issue is for us to get on with the job of using the tools in the toolbox, as your predecessor, Carwyn Jones, and, before him, Rhodri Morgan, used to say, and get on with making Wales a more prosperous place. So, would you agree with me that the important thing is to keep tax in Wales competitive, to keep income tax low, to make sure that borrowing powers are used wisely so that, at the end of the day, we have more money for public services in Wales so we can get on with the job of making Wales a more prosperous and, ultimately, a more independent part of the United Kingdom?

Well, Llywydd, my view has always been that the right way to use the fiscal devolution that we now have is within a UK fiscal framework, and that was a proposal that Plaid Cymru announced only this week. So, in that ecumenical sense of this afternoon, just as I agreed with some things in the paper provided by the Conservative party on homelessness, I agreed with what Plaid Cymru said about the need for a UK fiscal framework. But our prosperity is best secured, I believe, through continued membership of the United Kingdom and continued membership of the European Union. Both of those factors, I think, work to Wales's advantage and I think that our prosperity is best secured by continuing membership of both.

I stand in solidarity today with the imprisoned Catalan Democrats, and perhaps, from the comments we heard earlier, the Brexit Party would like to lock me up for what I'm about to say, but I'll risk it—[Interruption.] I'll risk it anyway. I find it always rather depressing when a fellow Welshman like David Rowlands shows such lack of confidence and such a low opinion of Wales and its potential, presumably believing that other countries smaller than Wales are inherently better than us, which is clearly not the case. The truth of the matter, is it not, is that the people of Wales are waking up to the possibility, just perhaps, that we can't afford not to be independent anymore.

You mentioned the fiscal gap: I'll draw your attention to the report by the Wales Governance Centre that said that this fiscal gap, which isn't correct as it is, is no reflection—is no reflection—on an independent Wales, but is instead a reflection of how the UK doesn't work for Wales now. The question is why Wales's economy is suffering as it is now. And would the First Minister agree with me that the way to build up confidence in what we can achieve as a nation is to have a constitutional convention, looking openly at the potential of independence for Wales, in co-operation and partnership with other countries, and looking at what we can achieve, rather than showing the staggering lack of confidence that the unionists in this Chamber show time and time again?

Well, Llywydd, it's not a matter of confidence at all; it's a matter of political choice. Now, the Member has his political preference, as does his party, and that's absolutely legitimate and of course there will be a campaign for that, but there are other possibilities for Wales as well. And, in the paper that we will discuss later this afternoon, I have set out the future for Wales as this Government and this party would see it. And it is not a matter of confidence; it is a matter about how people are able to articulate different possibilities for the future. For me, Wales's future is best secured as a successful member of both a successful United Kingdom and a successful European Union. I believe that both unions are right for Wales. Let's have the debate—the debate is the nature of politics, and of course we should have it.

In the document that we will talk about later, we propose, as the twentieth point of 20, that there should be a constitutional convention. I believe that the focus of the constitutional convention should be how to make the UK work better in the future—how to make sure that the UK goes on being a successful entity in which Wales plays its successful part. But, if you have a constitutional convention, and particularly if you have one that involves citizens, as well as those people who currently play a part in it, then there'll be that opportunity for people to contribute their ideas, to debate alternative propositions. To go back to the point that the Member made at the start: debate, discussion and democratic resolution is the right way to resolve these matters.