4. Will the Counsel General make a statement on the impact that a further delay to a Brexit deal being passed will have on Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire? OAQ54642

The flextension to 31 January means a disastrous 'no deal' Brexit has been avoided or at least postponed. Economically, it means the maintenance of the status quo. It also provides the opportunity to reject Boris Johnson’s hard Brexit deal and put the decision back to the people.

I had a feeling you'd probably say something along those lines, Counsel General, so I'm glad I'm not disappointed. Of course, I think, ultimately we all hear what we want to hear, and I'd like to tell you what farmers in my constituency are saying to me, because they need and want certainty surrounding Brexit, and I know from the many conversations that I've had, they want a deal done. One way or another, they want a deal done so they have certainty, so that they can plan for the future. Yet, last month, in Westminster, the Labour Party voted against approving the Conservative Government's new deal, which they had struck with agreement with the EU, which seemed to be supported by quite a wide variety of different organisations, different sectors of industry, farmers, and so on. And the policy of the Welsh Government seems to be to have a second referendum. What guarantee can you give my farmers in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire that if you did go and have that second referendum, you would actually bother to implement the result?

I thank the Member for acknowledging the consistency of my approach at the start of her question. I have farmers discussing their concerns with me as well, and the concerns they ask me are about what certainty do they have of replacement funding from the UK Government for the support they get at the moment. What funding can we secure for regional investment in Wales from the UK Government to replace the support we are able to provide them at the moment? Unfortunately, the position, I have to say to them, is that, despite the sunny slogans of Boris Johnson, in terms of the hard reality, I cannot give them the assurance that they want. The reason for that is that the UK Government has been completely neglectful of the agricultural sector as a significant part of our economy, despite the headline-grabbing statements that we sometimes see. So, that is the reality and that is what farmers are saying to me, and I'm surprised that farmers in her constituency aren't also saying to her that they are concerned the UK Government isn't living up to its responsibilities.

Minister, the constituents of Angela Burns clearly highlighted the concerns over a possible delay, but what are your considerations for those same constituents if this deal goes through and we have 11 months to negotiate a free trade agreement, which is unlikely? Everybody other than Michael Gove seems to think that's impossible, and he's adamant that they will not seek an extension to any transition period, which means there'll be a 'no deal' exit on 31 December next year. What are the implications for those constituents if that happens?

Well, I think the Member makes a very important point there. Although 31 January gives some confidence in relation to an imminent 'no deal', the point he makes is at the heart of the weakness in the deal that Boris Johnson has brought back from the European Union, which is that there is no certainty that we are not simply looking at a deferred 'no deal' exit. And we know what damage that will cause to the farming sector, to various sectors of our economy and our communities at large. I share with him his scepticism that the kind of free trade agreement—unless it's extremely minimalist—that he describes in the political declaration can be achieved within that period, even on his own terms. Again, if we just look at the UK Government's own figures here, even if those trade agreements are possible to put in place, the advantage that brings to the UK economy is absolutely dwarfed by the damage that that sort of relationship with the European Union would pose to our economy into the future.