4. What assessment has the Welsh Government made of the impact that holding another referendum on Brexit will have on the Welsh economy? OAQ54796

The threat of Brexit has stunted the growth of the economy and removing that threat would undoubtedly provide an economic stimulus. In 'A brighter future for Wales’, we set out the evidence of why Wales’s best interests are protected by remaining in the European Union.

Thank you for that answer, Minister. It's a shame for Wales that you and your Government and your brethren across the border want to continue the uncertainty that's afflicting Welsh businesses because you and your remainer allies in the Liberal Democrats and Plaid didn't get your own way in 2016. Labour have said that you would campaign to stay in if there were another referendum. You want the choice to be between Brexit in name only and remain—that's just a referendum rigged for remain.

All the scaremongering didn't work on the electorate, so now you've been forced to be blatant about your disregard for the democratic will of the British people and the Welsh people. So, with your aim being not just to delay Brexit but to reverse Brexit, do you think that voters will understand that voting Labour is exactly the same as voting for the Lib Dems or Plaid?

I find it astonishing that the Member, who represents a part of Wales that has benefited so much from membership of the European Union and which continues to rely on employment opportunities that are supported by membership of the European Union, takes such a cavalier approach in relation to this fundamental economic question. And she invites us to look at a world where the cause of uncertainty is our policy here, where we absolutely know that the kind of hard or 'no deal' Brexit that she advocates would just mean that we'd be having conversations about Brexit in this Chamber for the next decade and beyond.

The notion that the kind of Brexit she wants to see draws to an end uncertainty rather than ushering in decades of continuing uncertainty is completely fictitious. The only way of drawing a line under this is to put this matter back to the public and to campaign and succeed in the campaign to remain.

I think Michelle Brown saying there, 'How do you know what kind of Brexit I want?' shows quite clearly that there's uncertainty even amongst the benches of those who are here because of Brexit. They don't know what they're after.

But the truth of the matter is—I'm sure you'd agree with me, Minister—that at least a referendum allows the people of Wales to look at the evidence that we have now that we didn't have in 2016 in order to make a judgment on what's best for us. And, yes, of course, there are different assessments of what Brexit could do to the economy, and would you as a Minister agree with me that what we have in those different assessments is that it could be bad, very bad, or terribly bad?

Yes. I think the Member hits the nail on the head—the opportunity of putting the question back to the public allows people to evaluate the evidence as it now sits before us. And we are no longer talking about the speculative consequences of seeking to leave the European Union; we are already talking about the real-life consequences and we haven't actually left yet. So, we know that the economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it otherwise would be. We had analysis recently that supports that. We know that business investment is about 26 per cent under trend, and that isn't numbers on a page; that is jobs, livelihoods and money in people's pockets.

And he is right to say that even on the UK Government's own analysis, even its best version of its deal, has a significant adverse impact on the economy. It is extraordinary to me that a UK Government could advocate a course of action that, on its own figures, causes damage to the economy of the UK.