9. Will the Counsel General outline the effect on Wales of trading with the European Union on World Trade Organization terms? OQ55450

Should the UK Government fail to reach an agreement with the EU for a comprehensive free trade agreement, and thus have to trade with the EU on WTO terms, the negative effects to the UK economy could be as high as over 9.3 per cent over the long term.

Thank you, Minister. Can you confirm that, without a deal with the European Union, under World Trade Organization rules each member must grant the same most-favoured-nation market access to all other World Trade Organization members, not just cherry-pick those they like? My understanding is that, if we have zero tariffs on European steel, that would mean we'd have to have zero tariffs on Chinese steel. What effect would that have on the steel industry in Wales?

Well, without a free trade agreement that covers substantially all trade in products originating in the UK or the EU, then the UK and the EU would be trading on WTO terms. And the most-favoured-nation principle, which he mentioned in his supplementary question, means that WTO members can't normally discriminate between trading partners. There are some measures—some safeguarding measures—on imports of certain steel products, which will remain in place. But once the UK is fully outside the EU, and if there isn't a tariff-free trade deal, this will also have an impact on exports into the EU of steel from the UK. And the effect there of tariff-rate quotas could be very, very significant, and very significantly damaging for Welsh and UK steel. We support the steel industry in its aim for the UK to secure a comprehensive free trade agreement after we leave the transition period, and we're very, very concerned at some of the estimates coming out of UK Steel about the adverse impact on the sector in additional costs if that isn't successfully concluded.

I thank the Counsel General.

Two issues from me before we break for lunch. The first is that I'm aware that the health Minister has made a written statement on the future of the testing strategy on coronavirus. Given the comments across parties earlier on during the business statement about the appropriateness of making statements to this Chamber other than in a written form, I've decided therefore to extend the topical question under Janet Finch-Saunders's name, which is in the context of testing at care homes, to allow any Member that has a question on this written statement to be able to ask those questions of the Government also. And we will let the Government know that that is the case.

And also to draw attention to the fact that I've been made aware by Neil McEvoy that a photograph was taken within the Chamber during proceedings. Members know that that's not to be done, and not to be tweeted, and not to be repeated by any Member. I thank Neil McEvoy for drawing my attention to that.

We now break for lunch, and we will start again at 13:45. 

Plenary was suspended at 13:02.

The Senedd reconvened at 13:46, with David Melding in the Chair.