5. What assessment has the Welsh Government made of the risk of disruption to fresh food supplies if the UK Government fails to secure a trade deal with the EU before the end of the transition period? OQ55628

Well, without a deal, there will be a serious risk of delays to the import of fresh produce into the UK as well as price increases as a result of tariffs. A co-ordinated UK approach is essential to minimise the potential impacts on food supply, and information put in the public domain yesterday will cause us to re-evaluate our level of assurance in relation to these arrangements.

I'm most grateful to Guido Fawkes for revealing that the transition period planning assumptions of the UK Government—which will confirm the worst fears that I have been raising for the last several months—is that a 'no deal' on trade with the European Union would lead to a tightening of supply, an increase of demand for agri-food products, and the effect of this disruption, I quote,

'is likely to be reduced supply availability, especially of certain fresh products.'

I think perhaps the most disturbing thing about the information that was raised earlier by my colleague Alun Davies is that the civil servant notes in this document that they were instructed not to share this assumption with devolved authorities, but they acknowledged it will have an impact on devolved authorities and their planning. Now, we are not talking about caviar being flown in from the Black sea—we are talking about everyday vegetables and fruit that we have come to rely on as a result of being 40 years in a single market. So, this is extremely serious. So, in addition to seeking an immediate meeting with Michael Gove as to why information is being withheld from the devolved administrations, what can we now do to try and avert this potential disaster for ordinary people and their daily food?

I thank the Member for that important supplementary. Let me be very clear at the start: aspects of food supply are devolved, but the question of food crossing the border into the UK is obviously fundamental to supply, and that is entirely the responsibility of the UK Government, and any restrictions on supply will be a matter of the outcome of choices made by the UK Government.

Now, I share her concern in relation to what we read in the meeting notes yesterday. I had a meeting yesterday with the UK Government in relation to food supply and impressed upon them the need for joint working in relation to this area. So, the context in which the material was in the public domain was very disturbing to us. What we are doing in Wales is making sure that we are speaking to the supermarkets in Wales to make sure that we understand their logistical arrangements, to understand that there will be an equity of distribution in relation to food produce coming into the UK. I have made the point very forcibly that—and the environment Minister, by the way, makes these points as well—there is a risk in terms of food prices next year increasing, and that at a time when people are suffering, in terms of their livelihoods, from COVID and the choices made by the UK Government to discontinue the enhancement to universal credit.

So, these are potentially very significant challenges for the most vulnerable people. Even if the overall supply of food isn't affected, the cost of it for people in those income groups could be—the effect of that could be very significant. We will continue to do all we can to make sure that we get those assurances about equity of distribution, but the question of supply into the UK is one that necessarily we need to work with the UK Government on.

Minister, it is right to acknowledge there may—and I emphasise may—be some disruption to food supplies coming from the continent post Brexit, but do you not agree that this could give a huge opportunity for the UK and Wales to become far more self-sufficient in our food production? British farmers are some of the most efficient and innovative in the world and husbandry standards are amongst the highest. I am sure the British public would far prefer to buy home-grown produce, especially given the fact that farming practices in Spain, for instance, where much of our imports of fruit and vegetables come from, are far from desirable. It is evidenced that immigrant labour is being shamefully exploited, with low wages, long hours and very sub-standard living accommodation. Given such practices, does the Attorney-General not agree with me that it is far more desirable for us to produce such foods at home, where exploitation does not exist, or at least is far less prevalent?

Well, I have no idea what the Attorney-General's view on this is, but what I would say is there are two—. The Member's question is premised on two assumptions that are fundamentally misconceived: firstly, that we should be prepared to tolerate restrictions on food supply, if that is what happens, and an increase in costs, if that is what happens, because of a future long-term benefit. I completely disagree with him that that is an acceptable way to proceed. And the second error that he's making in the assumptions is that our current arrangements are in any way preventing the development of that kind of sector in the UK. I completely agree with him: we want to see an increasingly vibrant agricultural and horticultural sector in Wales and across the UK. I don't accept for a moment that the current arrangements are a barrier to that.