Earlier today I met with the World Health Organization—I met with the director for the European region, Dr Hans Kluge. And he was clear that lockdowns are a last resort, but the position we were in was that other measures had not been successful. The rising tide we were seeing—the rising tide of harm—would have led to much greater harm, not just in terms of COVID, but the impact that coronavirus is having in our hospitals today has a direct impact on non-COVID care and non-COVID mortality, and it's foolish in the extreme to deny that reality. The World Health Organization are not saying that the firebreak we have introduced in Wales is inappropriate, they're not saying that it's the wrong thing to do, they're saying we should consider all other measures first, as we have done. This is why we are where we are, because there were not other successful measures for us to implement. The seven-day incidence rate for Wales went from 130 cases per 100,000 to now 260—it's doubled, despite the firebreak. We know that our NHS faced the real risk of being overwhelmed. The number of people being taken to hospital with coronavirus continues to grow each day—it's up 20 per cent on this time last week. We now have a third of our critical care beds treating COVID patients. Coronavirus is not a mild disease, it is highly infectious, it makes people seriously unwell, and it takes lives. It is a deadly disease.

I'm proud that we took the difficult but necessary decision to act earlier in Wales than our colleagues across the border. I say that even though I recognise how difficult that choice is. It is not a choice that I or any other Minister has enjoyed taking, because we know that lockdown does come with real harm. But we're doing this to avoid a much greater harm of an overwhelmed NHS and more people losing their lives from coronavirus and other conditions. And so I do welcome the lockdown choice that England have now made; it reinforces the seriousness of the threat that we face in every nation within the United Kingdom, and I note that the UK Parliament has today approved that four-week lockdown in England. 

Every one of us still has a role to play in the national effort we are still going through here in Wales to ensure that the firebreak is successful. It remains vital that we continue to observe social distancing, hand washing regularly, and to wear a face mask when required to do so, because the more people we meet, the more who are at risk from coronavirus. And we ask people to think not only about what is permitted and within the rules, but what we should do, and to exercise some personal responsibility and awareness of how we reduce our risk for ourselves, for our friends, family and loved ones. So, everyone in Wales is still required to stay at home and work from home wherever possible, because we know that this virus thrives on human contact. To reduce the amount of interactions, people must not meet others they do not live with, either indoors or outdoors, until the end of the firebreak, with the one exception for adults living alone or single parents, who can still meet with one other household.

I also remind people that we chose to prioritise the interests of children and young people. We know the harm that would have been caused to their mental health and well-being, as we saw through the summer when schools were closed. That meant we had to make other choices, including the choices on wider closures. That's why all non-essential retail, leisure, hospitality and tourism businesses have closed. I note that reports are now being made that non-essential retail in England will be restricted in supermarkets in much the same way as we have done here in Wales. Closures too have affected community centres, libraries and recycling centres, and even places of worship. These are difficult and far-reaching choices we have had to make to keep people safe.

We have also provided, though, support in terms of businesses—a point that the Member mentioned in his contribution—because I recognise this is an economic risk as well as a public health one. That's why we have £300 million of financial support through this challenging period, and also a £5,000 one-off payment for small businesses that have been required to close as well. That is in addition to the support available from the UK Government, including, of course, following the deterioration in southern England, the reintroduction of the much more generous furlough scheme and self-employed support across the UK. As the First Minister has said, we welcome what the Prime Minister said yesterday in the House of Commons, in response to the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, that furlough would of course be available whenever and wherever it was required within the UK. We expect the Prime Minister to keep his word, given in the House of Commons to the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, and would expect the Prime Minister to instruct any Chancellor in a Government led by him to do the same.

The firebreak represents a short, sharp shock to turn back the clock, slow down the virus and buy us more time to help us save lives. We're strengthening winter preparations, including building upon our successful test, trace, protect system. And I really am grateful for the way that people have behaved across Wales in supporting the firebreak. But we said that a successful firebreak would not be visible, in terms of its impact on infection rates, for at least two to three weeks after the firebreak has ended. That means that we're now seeing, in terms of new infections today, the impact of what was taking place two to three weeks ago in the past. But the sacrifices that we are all making during these two weeks will protect the NHS and save lives going forward, as we introduce a series of simpler national rules to come into force from 9 November, which the First Minister outlined yesterday.

Everybody should consider carefully how we follow not just the rules but how we take on board the need to think about what we should do. This is all about giving us the greatest opportunity to regain control and, with the end of the year approaching, to avoid a much longer and more damaging national lockdown that we are keen to avoid. 

I do not follow and agree with the Member's line of argument that coronavirus is somehow lessened in importance or in the harm that it causes. It is a highly infectious disease. It is a deadly disease. It is most likely to cause harm to our poorest communities. Coronavirus is not a great leveller. People who have the least advantages in life are the most likely to suffer harm and death from coronavirus. It reinforces the need to act to bring back some control, to save the lives of our least advantaged communities.

I'll give an idea of what that has meant in Wales, with this deadly disease. From 29 February to 23 October, the Office for National Statistics show that in Wales there has been a 12 per cent increase in excess deaths. It's even more significant in England, with a 19 per cent increase in excess deaths. In Wales, that 12 per cent that the Member referred to as so few deaths, that means an extra 2,418 lives have been lost—2,418 extra families grieving. That is why we acted: to prevent further losses of life and livelihoods. And that is why we all need to play our part, to act to keep friends, family and loved ones safe, to act to keep safe people who we will never meet.

The choices are not easy for any of us, but all of us can make a difference. All of us can help to keep Wales safe. Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer.