Questions now from the party spokespeople. The Conservatives spokesperson, Andrew R.T. Davies. 

Thank you, Presiding Officer. Minister, earlier in the week, there were reports that 26,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine had to be put rejected at the testing stage. These doses were designated for Wales. Can you update the Plenary as to your understanding as to the reason for rejection and how that might affect supply in Wales? 

Yes. It's actually about a delay to the doses in terms of the batch testing. So, we think there's going to be a delay to supply in Wales, as opposed to an entire loss, and it's an issue that affects the UK as well. So, I have another meeting with the vaccines Minister, Nadhim Zahawi, this week, from the UK Government. I have another meeting with Cabinet health Minister colleagues from across the UK this week as well. So, we are continuing to talk with each other about vaccine supply issues and delivery, and there isn't, as I understand it, a particular issue that I can give more detail on in the way that the Member asks, other than I hope to give what is a helpful reassurance about the fact the four nations are working together, and the delay to our supply is something we expect to be made up so that, of course, our hard-working, fantastic NHS staff and colleagues can get on with delivering the vaccine programme to help protect people right across the country. 

Thank you for that answer, Minister. I just want to be clear: I was talking about the AstraZeneca vaccine, not the well-documented delays— 

No, I understand. 

—with the reconfiguration of the factory and the Pfizer vaccine.

But if I could also ask you about evidence that appeared in the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies papers in relation to our BAME communities and work that SAGE has undertaken about the perception of the vaccine programme in those communities, the work that they undertook indicated a high percentage—72 per cent, in fact—of people questioned were either unlikely or very unlikely to have the vaccine. What work is the Welsh Government undertaking to allay people's fears within our BAME community and address this evidence that SAGE has put forward that there is reticence about taking up the vaccine in those communities? 

Well, we are already working with not just figures who have helped us in the past—so Emmanuel Ogbonna and Ray Singh are also looking to be helpful—but also Race Council Cymru. We're looking to reach out to community leaders, as we have been doing, because I do recognise this is a real concern. So, you have this juxtaposition of, on the one hand, people from black and Asian origin communities being more likely to suffer harm from COVID, and, on the other, rather than being the keenest to get protection from the vaccine, it's actually where there is the largest amount of vaccine scepticism. And, as you will know, there is a lot of fake news being spread around about the vaccine, about its efficacy, about the whole COVID pandemic in any event, and it's one of those occasions when I actually think it's not just about this Government, but about all four Governments and all people at the responsible end of politics, regardless of which party we're in, having a unified message for our constituents, and that is that these vaccines are approved only by an independent regulator. No politician decides whether the vaccines are safe and effective. The regulator decides whether they can be used and how they can be used, and it's then the job of politicians and our health services to make sure they're delivered. So, I would encourage everyone, when it's your turn, to make sure you're ready, take the vaccine, have the protection and then you will be protecting yourselves, your loved ones, and, of course, many other people across the country too.

Thank you for that answer, Minister, and if you could provide us with a regular update as the progress and the vaccine roll-out goes forward here in Wales around these figures, because they're quite alarming—72 per cent in the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies papers. So, I think it's important that we try and allay any fears that might be pervading those communities to stop people taking up the vaccine.

But also, evidence is now emerging, as we're getting further into the vaccine programme that, in care homes, for example, one in five staff members are refusing to have the vaccine. Now, that is a choice, because obviously, people are offered the vaccine and there is no compunction, but that does have an effect, if one in five staff members are refusing to have the vaccine, on residents, in particular, obviously, who might have all accepted the vaccine. Do you recognise that figure of one in five not taking up the offer of a vaccine? And if you do recognise it, what work has been undertaken to reassure staff members, who are in a vulnerable location, that the vaccine is a safe bet and ultimately a safe bet to protect the residents that the staff are so dedicated to?

Yes, I'm aware there's an issue with some staff not taking up the protection that the vaccine offers. In fact, I had a conversation with Vikki Howells about this yesterday on the work that we're looking to do, not just with providers and commissioners, but also with trade union representatives to reinforce to their members, again, the point that I made in your second question: the vaccines are only made available if the independent regulator approves them as being safe and effective and there are conditions upon their use as well.

So, it's really important to say that loud and clear from all political perspectives: to encourage staff to take up the offer of the vaccine when it's made available; to recognise that they're in a position where they're caring for some of our most vulnerable citizens—it's about protecting them, the people they work with, the people they care for, as well as people in their families and communities. We will continue to look at uptake rates to make sure we're providing the whole-community coverage and protection that we all want to see from the vaccine and a path out of this crisis. When the pandemic will eventually end, at some point, we'll still be left with a significant job of work to do in recovery, healthcare and economic terms. We can get there much sooner, though, if we can deliver the vaccine programme as quickly as possible and if people take up their vaccines when they're offered the chance to do so.

Plaid Cymru spokesperson, Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Thank you, Llywydd. This morning there's been a suggestion that the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation could recommend changes to the priority groups for vaccination if evidence, which is starting to emerge, demonstrates that vaccination has an impact on the transfer of the virus too—not only does it prevent people from becoming ill, but it protects those around them too. I know that following the advice of the JCVI is the Welsh Government's policy, but can the Minister tell us how willing the Government is to change strategy, if necessary, in terms of the necessary digital infrastructure and so on? Can the Government implement a new policy at short notice if that is the advice the Government receives?

Well, there's a bit of a hypothetical question there about what we can do if a certain change is or isn't made. What I think is much clearer though, and I think it is a fair question to ask, is if the JCVI—the independent expert group that has given us advice on how to make the best use of vaccines, how to have the greatest public health benefit and how to save the greatest number of lives—if their advice were to change, what would be the position of Ministers? I think that's a fair question and I'm happy to say that if the JCVI do change their advice, I'll obviously consider it with the advice that I get from my chief medical officer and I would expect that the position and the policy direction of the Welsh Government would then change as well. Because throughout this, I've been interested in making choices that follow the advice as clearly as possible and help to save lives. If the JCVI think there is a different way or a better way to do that, as we understand more about the vaccines we have available, as we understand more about COVID and its various strains and types, then, of course I'll be prepared to change my decision and what that means for the Welsh Government and our national health service and vaccination programme.

That doesn't answer my question. I wasn't asking whether you would change policy, I was asking if you had the capacity within your systems to take a new path if necessary and what preparations are being made for that.

If I may move on, clearly, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine that has been favoured, because it is more flexible; it's easier to store and to transport and so on and so forth. But, as evidence reaches us, from Israel particularly, in terms of how the virus is transferred by those people who have been vaccinated, it does appear possible—and this is not a rhetorical issue, because we need to make preparations for all eventualities—that only the Pfizer vaccine would provide this improvement in terms of transmission. Now, this is a very new kind of vaccination. This new mRNA technology is likely to be a prominent part of dealing with future pandemics. We will need infrastructure in place that would allow the roll-out of these new mRNA vaccines very quickly and the need to keep them cold, and so on. In the midst of this pandemic, does the Government have its eye on developing that kind of infrastructure for the future, as well as seeing how quickly it can be rolled out for the problem that we are currently facing?

Well, of course we'll consider the developing evidence base on the effectiveness and characteristics of vaccines and the threats that we're looking to combat. I think going beyond that is rather unhelpful and speculative, because we need to understand the confirmed evidence, rather than what may or may not be developing. There is always the potential for different things to happen at various points in time. I'm confident, though, that the flexibility and the can-do attitude that our NHS has shown throughout this crisis is something that will also help us with future events, as well.

It's also worth pointing out, I think, that I do think we should look forward to a more optimistic end to 2021 than the year we've just gone through, but that doesn't mean that the year will be risk-free. Even as we vaccinate the adult population, I don't think people can look forward to going back to entirely the way things were at this point in January 2020. I think the challenge is that we're going to be living with COVID for some time. Once we have protections from the vaccine, we'll have the changes that you and I would see every year with the flu, for example, where different strains emerge and there's a need to consider how we best protect people and what we need to build in as a regular part of our infrastructure, and that will, of course, also feature in how we deal with new and emerging threats, whether they're from a different strain of COVID or, indeed, other healthcare threats, as well.

Diolch. I must say, I'm disappointed that you seem to be brushing off my questions as being hypothetical ones. I want to see Welsh Government preparing for different eventualities, because if we've learnt something of the last year, it's that this pandemic can throw all sorts of curve balls at us and we need to be preparing for different outcomes.

Now, with case numbers thankfully falling, as well, many people are suffering, after almost a year of severe restrictions on their lives, will understandably want to know now the timescale for when they can get their lives back on track. Now, I'm not going to ask you today to give us that timescale, because, as I say, this pandemic has been a tale of surprise after surprise, so things can change even in a few weeks, but what I do want is an assurance that the Welsh Government does recognise the real hardships and health problems caused by the lockdowns themselves, and that the central focus of Government is to have an exit strategy from the cycle of lockdowns, and that there will be a recovery period that addresses the harms that have occurred, particularly, for example, to children and young people.

Well, of course we recognise that lockdown comes with harms as well as benefits, and we've been very upfront about that in statements made by myself, by the First Minister and by the evidence papers that we've published from our technical advisory group, and, indeed, the statements published by our chief medical officer. So, this isn't a new factor for us to take into account. It's always a balance between the harm that a lockdown can cause in terms of the greater sense of isolation, the dislocation between different people and the impact on children and young people, and that's why we've been so keen to try to maintain face-to-face learning for as long as possible; it's why it's our first significant priority, as we've always said, in terms of being able to come out of level 4 lockdown measures as they currently stand today.

So, we recognise the longer term impact of the lockdown measures we're taking, together with the significant benefits that lockdown is providing in helping to reduce infection rates, and helping to prevent people acquiring COVID and the harm that would cause. We've already seen eye-watering and shocking statistics on the number of people who are in hospital now, the number of people who've lost their lives and the percentage of excess deaths, matching and exceeding the excess deaths that we've not seen since the second world war. These are extraordinary times we live through and lockdown is an extraordinary set of measures.

The recovery will need to be economic, and people's loss of work produces health harms as well. We know there'll be physical harm to recover and to account for, and not just in conditions like stroke and cancer, but also a significant challenge in terms of mental health and well-being as well. So, we recognise that the health recovery will be long and significant, but I am confident that our NHS will stand up to that challenge. It will require our support, it will require our understanding and it will require us to make choices about the budgets we have available to us.

The next year, though, even though it will be difficult—the next term of this Senedd, even though it will be full of COVID-related challenges—is a much more optimistic one to look forward to with that sense of recovery, as opposed to the last 10 or 11 months we've just gone through. So, I think all of us can have confidence our NHS will still be here and fit for purpose, as long as we make choices about how we support it as elected Members here in the Senedd.