– in the Senedd at 2:57 pm on 23 February 2021.
The next item is a statement by the Minister for Health and Social Services on COVID-19 vaccinations. I call on the Minister to make that statement. Vaughan Gething.
On 11 January, I published our vaccination strategy for Wales. A huge amount has happened in just over six weeks. Our programme has gone from strength to strength. Later this week, I'll publish an update to the strategy, to both reflect on progress and to provide some further detail on our current and upcoming priorities.
More than 860,000 people in Wales, all of whom are amongst the groups of people most likely to suffer serious harm from coronavirus, have now received their first dose of the vaccine. Second doses, which are important for longer-term protection in particular, are also being rolled out, with almost 50,000 people having had theirs already. This is an incredible effort from team Wales. My thanks go to all those involved from our NHS Wales, public and private sector partners, the military support, and the many volunteers who have stepped up. My thanks also go to the hundreds of thousands of people that have taken up their offer of the vaccine and in doing so have played their part in our national effort to keep Wales safe. The evidence is still emerging, but confidence is building that the vaccine programme is a critical factor in our journey out of lockdown and on to a brighter future.
Members, I hope, will have seen the really encouraging research that emerged from Scotland and England yesterday. There is a long way to go still, but the impressive start to our vaccine programme has brought with it hope for all of us. Members will have seen the announcements from the UK Government over recent days about speeding up vaccine roll-out. We have always said that our vaccination programme can go faster, but is subject to increased predictable vaccine supply. Late yesterday evening, we received confirmation that we should expect to see some of our vaccine supplies earlier than originally expected. So, we are now urgently working through plans to match delivery capacity to that supply profile. We want to ensure that as many people as possible can be vaccinated as soon as those earlier supplies allow.
As I say, we've said for some time that we could move faster with more supply. I expect that here in Wales we will be able to match the pace of England in rolling out the vaccination programme, and people should have high confidence in our ability to do so given the success of the Wales programme to date. I will have more to say in the coming days once my officials and our NHS have had time to work through last night’s information. Thank you, Llywydd.
Minister, thank you very much for your statement today. It is clearly good news. I don't use the word 'phenomenal' very often, but I do think that the vaccine roll-out in both the whole of the UK, in all our four nations, and in Wales has been absolutely phenomenal. I'm really pleased to hear you say that you believe that you'll be able to keep pace with the speed of the vaccine programme in England, and I just want to, like you, say an enormous, heartfelt 'thank you' to everybody involved in this programme. I think it is a real testament to humankind's ability to fight back against a virus that is very keen to try to cause us as much damage as it possibly can, and I congratulate all involved.
I've got just a couple of questions in three areas. The first is about the second dose. There doesn't seem to be consistency in provision of dates for second jabs. Some people are offered an appointment on receipt of the first jab, others are told they will be contacted, and it seems to be different not just between health boards, but within health boards. I wonder if you could offer some clarity on that. And what happens if somebody misses their second dose because they can't get to the appointment, and it's beyond that little time window that we've been given? Is there a problem? Do they have to start again? These are questions that have been raised with me by a number of people, and if you have any clarity you can offer there, I'd be very grateful.
My second area of questioning is about fairness. We have a very clear priority system, and we also have, sometimes, doses that are not used up at the end of the day, and therefore the organisations handing these out are trying to find people to come in and take up those doses. That's great. However, Dyfed-Powys police officers have been telling me that they have received an e-mail from within their force saying that they're not allowed to receive the vaccine if they are not in the appropriate JCVI group, even if they're called at a session where there are spare doses going. I wonder if you can look into this, because I've also had a few reports from other forces that have different views, and I just wonder if we can have some clarity, because I know that police officers feel that they are on the front line, and they do not feel that they're being treated with fairness. They're not asking for priority here—they just want to be fair, and if I can walk by a centre and be offered a spare dose, why can't a police officer?
Finally, I do have to just return to the question of carers, because it is a confusing situation. Yesterday, you said that unpaid carers and people with learning disabilities could be put into priority group 6 for vaccines, but on 2 February you were quoted by BBC Wales as saying that unpaid carers would be in priority group 6, in line with the JCVI advice. Now, this uncertainty is causing concern and worry for people who are vulnerable or looking after vulnerable people. I see that both NHS England and Scotland are already outlining guidance on vaccinating unpaid carers in group 6. NHS England wrote to local trusts on how to identify them on 20 February, and NHS Scotland have revised their guidance in the last 24 hours. You'll be aware that the green book on immunisation against infectious diseases states that vaccination of unpaid carers in priority group 6 should include
'Those who are eligible for a carer’s allowance, or those who are the sole or primary carer of an elderly or disabled person who is at increased risk of COVID-19 mortality'.
It also clarifies that
'those clinically vulnerable to COVID include children with severe neuro-disabilities, those who are designated Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV), adults who have underlying health conditions, and those who need care because of advanced age.'
So, carers are saying to me that the JCVI are already very clearly saying that, if you're in receipt of a carer's allowance, you are allowed to go into category 6. They are saying that when they go and ask the health board, their local GP, 'Can I have that vaccination?', they are told, 'No, we've got to wait for guidance, you have to wait for decisions from the Welsh Government'. I know that the First Minister mentioned that there would be something coming through during First Minister's questions today, but carers, to be frank, are feeling that they were promised one thing, now the goalposts have changed again. Are you able to offer any clarity today to carers—unpaid carers who perform such a vital role in our society—and actually offer them a real, consistent and clear message as to when they will be able to have their vaccine? I would really appreciate if you could shed any light on that subject. Thank you very much, Minister.
Thank you. I'll start with that final question because unpaid carers will be dealt with in group 6. I've answered lots of questions on that, and I'm really happy to restate the position to try to deal with some of the understandable concern that some people will have. So, we have had to work through—and we've done this deliberately with national carers organisations—how we define unpaid carers in such a way that we can get those people invited. And one of the examples I've given is that I regularly take my mother her shopping, so I deliver it to her house, but I wouldn't say that that act means that I would get through into priority group 6. I will be in priority group 6, but that's because I have an underlying chronic kidney condition. So, that's the reason why I'll get an invite for priority group 6. So, we've been working through with carers organisations to try to agree an approach that makes sense.
Now, what England have done is they're looking to identify people through general practice lists. That was an approach we considered but, ultimately, I've decided not to do that because that would essentially mean that looking at GPs lists—the extra requirements we'd then have for GPs, and you can anticipate the extra number of calls that GPs would get. I don't think that would be a sensible and efficient way to take unpaid carers through. So, I'm expecting imminently to be able to confirm some guidance for unpaid carers and for health boards to deliver that, and it is literally a matter of a number of days, and I expect that guidance will be published, and that should then give the clarity in public for everyone who is asking for it, but I'm making it really clear: unpaid carers are in group 6, and it's how we make sure that they're invited for their appointment rather than if, and that's a really important point to make.
On your point about fairness about spare end-of-day vaccine, well, I know you said that if you could be offered an end-of-day vaccine, why can't a police officer? That's because I suspect you're just a day or two older than 50, so you're within priority groups up to one to nine, Angela, whereas police officers, many of them won't be. What we have done, though, is been really clear in the guidance we've given out internally, and I think Gill Richardson, the senior responsible officer for the vaccine programme has said so in public as well, and sent a note out more broadly to say we're now in a position where groups 5 to 9 are a big chunk of the population, and we would expect health boards to be able to manage that group and, certainly, at this point in going through groups 5 to 9, to have spare groups of people at the end of the day that can be called on, because, actually, for people over the age of 50, lots of those people will be mobile and able to attend at very short notice.
If it isn't possible to do that then, yes, we do think it's appropriate to offer other people that end-of-day vaccine to make sure that doses aren't wasted. I don't think we're going to find high numbers, but if for the sake of dealing with six potential vaccines, whether that's a firefighter or a police officer or somebody else, then the Welsh Government certainly isn't saying, 'You cannot have that vaccine—it must be thrown away'. That clearly doesn't make sense, and that isn't the position we're adopting. And, as I say, we've sent a note out to clarify that within the system as well. So, the challenge of the message that you refer to I don't think reflects our stated position, and it should not represent practice. And I hope that helps to resolve that issue, not just in Dyfed Powys but more generally; I've heard the same sort of urban myth and concern being spoken about elsewhere as well.
On the second doses, I'm happy to confirm that we do expect that late doses can still be provided. So, we all understand that there are different reasons in life why a second dose appointment may be missed; someone may be ill, there may be a good reason why they can't attend on the stated time. That second dose can be rearranged, and my understanding is that it doesn't mean that there is no value in the person having to start again from dose 1 and going through dose 2. Actually, there's good data on the inter-dose interval being longer being a good thing in terms of the level of protection and the longevity of it. So, if someone gets their second dose in week 13 instead of week 11 or 12, that in itself shouldn't be a problem for their protection long term. Equally, if you miss your second appointment and need to rearrange it, it doesn't mean you are somehow being told to go back, do not pass 'Go' and collect £200—it isn't that sort of approach that we're taking.
And then on the consistency, a number of appointments have actually been rearranged to bring doses forward, particularly for those people receiving the Pfizer jab. I expect there will be a consistent approach in that everyone will be directly told when their appointment is. Some people have been given an indication for their second date at the point of the first vaccination. More and more, though, we're expecting to advise people, after they've had their first dose, when that second dose will be. I think the most important thing is to make sure that people aren't left behind. I agree with you: this has been a phenomenal effort in Wales. It's a pleasure to be leading other UK nations, but every one of the four UK nations can take some real pride in the way that our collective NHSes have delivered the programme.
Diolch. Thank you for the statement and, again, I would want to thank everybody involved in the quite remarkable vaccination efforts in all parts of Wales. The first issue I want to raise is on communication. The First Minister said, a week ago, on the Radio 4 Today programme, that people aged over 50 were imminently about to receive their invitations for their vaccine. He said, and I quote, that
'People aged over 50 will already be booked in for their appointments next week... and those people will be getting their vaccine from Monday onwards.'
We know that's not the case. We haven't reached the 50-somethings in large numbers yet. Priority groups will be done in turn. Now, I'm sure the First Minister wasn't trying to mislead, but it did cause a lot of confusion, so please can we be careful with communication?
I want to turn to the possible broadening of vaccination priority categories. Again, I have regularly called for bringing into the prioritisation lists those working in key roles, in schools, in public transport, the police, other emergency services and so on. Your Government has consistently said, 'No, we'll stick with the JCVI advice', but can I urge you to consider a different approach? There's nothing wrong at all in the JCVI priority list; the older you are and the more fragile your health is, you are more at risk as an individual—I think that's clear enough. But there's another risk factor, and that's how much you're exposed to the virus. Say you have two 45-year-olds, both healthy, not in the top nine priority groups. The one who goes in to clean a school or teach or assist in classes full of pupils and other staff faces more of a risk of being exposed to the virus than the 45-year-old working, say, in an administrative job and working from home. To me, it makes absolute sense that the former should be prioritised somewhat over the latter.
Also, can I encourage again a very early change in the rules on vaccinating people with learning disabilities? We're hearing positive noises. We're talking about people who may be vulnerable not just physically but also vulnerable in terms of being able to cope with contracting COVID; just get them through the vaccination system, please.
And with unpaid carers too, there's still confusion on this. Yes, we know that unpaid carers in general are now in group 6, but we're desperate to have those clear national guidelines so people know where they stand.
And finally, I've been in contact with a care home owner today. He described a hole in the wall of protecting care homes, with 6,000 unvaccinated care workers, and that's certainly a worry, but the point he wanted to make with me was that three of his staff have been told they can't have their vaccine for a number of weeks—that's something I'm going to be taking up with the health board—but he's concerned about a number of staff who don't want to receive the vaccine because they have believed some of the anti-vaccine mantra so prevalent in parts of social media. I know this is something that you're concerned about as well. I asked you last week during a briefing session what work Welsh Government is doing to share a counter-narrative debunking those myths, so I wonder if you could update us on work being done in that arena. Thank you.
I'll deal with the last point first, because there is a real concern about the level of misinformation and dishonesty in trying to dissuade people from having the vaccine and a range of scare stories that are being promoted. And I should say that I'm grateful for the way that Members across the political spectrum have looked to be really consistent in urging people to take the vaccine. You'll have seen not just the celebrities who have gone out and encouraged people from black and Asian origin groups to have the vaccine, but also you saw politicians from across the political divide doing the same thing as well. You wouldn't normally have Diane Abbott and James Cleverly endorsing the same message, but it very much has happened.
The sewer of misinformation that is available is a real concern for all of us, and in particular as we go through the age groups, the concerns that have been given are a real threat to all of us. So, we know that employers in each of those areas are reinforcing those messages, and we know that, locally, our general practitioners and others are doing it and to the point of vaccination, those conversations take place. But it's really about the amount of information we're able to get out earlier, and some of that is because it's the organic spread of this, whether it's through WhatsApp or Facebook or other social media platforms, it's being able to combat that in those areas as well. You'll see that this is a challenge, not just in the Government, about who the message comes from, because while some people will believe what I have to say when I say that I've spoken to our chief medical officer and this is the advice, but there are many others who need to hear that directly from others. So, it's a multiplicity of voices, especially those people who are from those communities of concern, other care workers talking about their experiences and in particular independent medics, as opposed to others. And you'll see that we're promoting that on Welsh Government platforms and others, and I hope that Members do find it easy enough to find sources of information if you're getting concerns about this. If Members do have concerns about where that information is, then please do contact me and I'll happily make sure that something goes out to Members more generally to point people to reliable sources of information.
On your starting point about the clarity in communications, groups 5 to 9 include all people over the age of 50 and that's the point the First Minister was making. We're working through that in terms of priorities. We're into groups 5 and 6 already, people will be receiving invites and will be going through in turn. I do expect, as I said earlier, to be able to at least match the pace of the roll-out in England, which means that we should be able to do that earlier than the end of April, which is good news for everyone, and then to start with the rest of the adult population.
And that gets me, I guess, into your middle question, which is about broadening vaccine priorities. I know that you say you're not looking to de-prioritise other people, but the reality is that if you broaden vaccination categories, if you add more people in over and above the JCVI prioritisation, then you are de-prioritising other people. And I take on board your point about who these people are. It's either a choice—and we've asked JCVI for advice—of whether there are particular occupations that should be prioritised above age groups or together with other age groups. And then there may be some difficult value questions, because actually, if you work in retail, or if you're a taxi driver, or if you're a post office worker, then you have different risks to other people, and I know that lots of the conversation is about teachers or the police, but if there are other groups with a larger occupational profile in terms of acquiring COVID. So, we may face a challenge—and it depends what the JCVI says—about whether we have key workers as a category or individual workers, and within that, I'll be interested in advice around how specific that advice would be and how quickly our whole programme can move. Now, I need to receive and consider that JCVI advice and I'm expecting that that isn't very far into the future, so this isn't going to be theoretical for much longer. I'll need to make an actual decision and as soon as I have made a decision, I'll be clear about what that is and provide that to the public as well as Members, and of course, we'll have the published advice from the JCVI to work from. So, I understand the case that the Member makes, but I have to say that, without clarity in how that would work and making sure that we protect people at the greatest risk as soon as possible, it's not a position that I think should affect groups 5 to 9, who are still progressing through at some pace.
Thank you for your statement, Minister. I would like to, once again, thank all those who have made this enormous task possible and all those who will move heaven and earth to vaccinate us all in the coming months. I'm pleased to say that, last Thursday, in Margam, they had 100 per cent turnout, which is a tremendous result.
In a few weeks, we will have delivered vaccines to all those in the priority groups and will move on to the remaining population. So, Minister, how will you approach that programme? Will there be a prioritisation list? Have you given any consideration to those who are at greater risk, but not included in the earlier JCVI list, such as asthma sufferers and adults with learning disabilities, particularly those in assisted living, as well as carers, from whom I've had many, many e-mails? Minister, I would also urge you to consider prioritising those in the at-risk professions, such as teachers, police officers, firefighters, prison officers and, of course, our customer-facing retail staff.
Finally, Minister, it is concerning that there are those working in health and care who are refusing to get vaccinated. Whilst that is their right, we cannot allow their choices to put others at risk. So, will you ensure that staff who choose not to get vaccinated are prevented from having face-to-face contact with vulnerable patients until the completion of the vaccination programme? Thank you very much. Diolch yn fawr.
In respect of the questions about the next phase after we've completed priority groups 5 to 9, I think I've dealt with those at some length in response to both Angela Burns and Rhun ap Iorwerth, including the point about at-risk professions and people with learning disabilities that I've committed to dealing with in the very near future. I certainly hope that I will have dealt with people with learning disabilities and how that advice will be effected prior to answering questions in the Chamber tomorrow. Members will then get an opportunity to ask me questions about a choice that I hope will be made public by then.
On vaccine refusal, I think this is rather more difficult. I understand the point that the Member makes about whether people who have refused a vaccine or not had a vaccine, whether they should be prevented from going into certain patient-facing areas. This is what we get into going back into a debate about whether the vaccine is, essentially, compulsory. That would, essentially, make the vaccine compulsory for front-line members of staff in health and social care. It's an issue we're working through with not just leaders in those areas but trade unions and others about what the ethical interplay is between this, because there isn't a requirement, a legal requirement, for people to take the vaccine. We do, then, need to think through what that means and it's not a straightforward point.
It's also a broader question not just for health and care, but for a range of other professions, where if people are returning to work and social distancing isn't possible, then what does that mean? To give you an example, one of the occupational groups that has had significant mortality from COVID is chefs and kitchen workers. If you remember the time when we were able to eat out, you'd often see people in a kitchen and social distancing wasn't always possible. Yet, actually, if we get back to being able to reopen that part of hospitality, some employers will be thinking through what they're going to do if people are not going to take the vaccine.
It's a difficult question, where people will express a degree of keenness or reluctance to work with others. This is not straightforward in terms of people disclosing the form of treatment they have and haven't had, and the vaccination is very much part of it. So, I recognise the point the Member is making, but I don't think it's quite as simple as, 'You can't undertake duties unless you prove that you've had the vaccine.' I think this is a debate that we're a long way from concluding.
Minister, the vaccine roll-out is proceeding very effectively and efficiently, which we're all very grateful for, but, obviously, we need a very good take-up of the vaccine if we are going to have Wales as protected as we would like it to be. It is good, generally, but there are some gaps, and you've referred already to black and ethnic minorities, for example. I know there's emerging information in terms of some our more deprived communities not taking up the vaccine opportunities in the numbers that we would like. You've already talked about role models, Minister, and communication and messaging. As this information becomes available, in terms of gaps in vaccine take-up, how will you be monitoring that and responding to it, in terms of adapting messaging and communication, and working with those who reach out into these communities and can help to improve the position as we go through this programme?
Thank you for the question. In terms of take-up, we are already seeing evidence of a differential in take-up, both through our most advantaged and least advantaged communities. So, the least well-off 20 per cent of the population have a 5 per cent to 6 per cent differential in take-up compared to our most advantaged population group, and we've seen that in groups 1 to 4. We do though also see a bigger differential between some different groups. So, black Afro-Caribbean and some Asian groups have a much lower take-up. That isn't complete data, but we do know that there is a material difference. So, there's work that's already been done, not just at the round-table that I've joined, but there's a wide range of work being done positively and proactively.
You'll have seen Muslim doctors undertaking a range of work and you'll see leadership in different faith groups as well. And I think we all have a role to play as well in terms of what we can do, and I look forward to joining you and Jayne Bryant for an event this week to talk about vaccine take-up within Newport. We are also deliberately working with a range of people in the faith community and a range of voluntary groups to promote take-up, because this is the best thing people can do for themselves, their family and their community, to get a vaccine that is safe and effective, and one that has gone through a rigorous assessment. So, I think the more we can do to really promote that the better. Health boards themselves, of course, also have outreach workers. Every health board has got outreach workers to work with different communities within their health board area. So, that deliberate and positive outreach, together with the approach of others, and also our ability to interrogate the data to see where there may still be a gap and to think what we may need to do. So, you may well be seeing more direct messages from not just faith leaders, but the potential to use some of those venues as vaccination centres to encourage more people to come forward.
I congratulate everybody who is involved in not only closing the initial first-dose gap with England and Scotland, but also now closing the second-dose gap also. So, credit where it's due. I know I raised that with you previously and you said there would be good news ahead and you were right. So, well done.
But what assurance can you give to the constituent whose daughter is an elite Paralympic F20 world champion shot putter, hoping to go to Tokyo to the Paralympic games this summer, who may need to go to the Europeans in Poland at the end of May to qualify for Tokyo, but who's in vaccination priority group 6, has not yet had a vaccination, and where her mother rightly states it would be a real shame if she missed the opportunity to go to Poland and therefore jeopardise her chances of a gold medal in Tokyo because she's not been vaccinated in time?
And secondly and finally, how do you respond to the Chirk patient who contacted me yesterday, stating that contrary to the Welsh Government's proclamation about getting all of its over-70s vaccinated a day before England, Chirk surgery only completed the last of the first doses for people in this category today—i.e. yesterday; and, people in younger age groups who would already have been vaccinated if they lived in Shropshire, 100 yards away, are facing a two to three-week wait? Chirk's flu vaccine service is consistently excellent, so it plainly isn't their fault. The political borders in this area often don't match other lines, such as the divisions between GP practices, and in this particular instance, the problem is with the supply of vaccines to Chirk surgery, which is in Wales and part of the Welsh NHS system. Thank you.
Thank you. On your first point, as you're aware, the time in the first few weeks when there was criticism over the vaccine roll-out programme in Wales was a time when we were building our infrastructure, and I think it's been proven that that was the right thing to do. We built a way to deliver that meant we could move at real pace in a sustained manner. So, that's why we are still at present the leading UK nation when it comes to the proportion of the population for first doses—more than a third of the adult population have already had their first dose. And we are in second place within the UK nations, just behind Northern Ireland, when it comes to the percentage of second doses we've delivered. And that's in particular the material progress we've made over the last week or so on delivering more and more second doses.
In terms of your constituent and her concern that she's in group 6 and has yet to have her vaccine, I expect that we will, as I said, match the pace in England where they think they can complete all groups up to priority group 9 by the middle of April. So, I don't think that your constituent will have to wait very much longer. The additional supply that we've been told will be brought forward will allow us to deliver at a much quicker pace, because every part of our system has said that with more certainty over supply and clarity of early supply, we can go even faster. So, I hope that will give your constituent and many others confidence in the weeks ahead. And when it comes to groups 1 to 4, we pledged that we'd have the offer for everyone in groups 1 to 4, and it was the same in every other UK nation. There will have been some catch-up in terms of the actual delivery.
When it comes to vaccine supply, of course, this does rely on the supplies we're getting through UK procurement. I should say that procuring the vaccine for the whole of the UK is a UK Government responsibility, but it's a responsibility that has broadly been done well. We have had significant volumes of vaccine supply to help us get on with our job of delivering that vaccine. We've had some smoothing out and a dip in the last two weeks in vaccine supply. That was predicted and expected. That's why we've seen a minor dip within that. I think within Wales, within England, within every country, you could have vaccine delivery centres that have a slightly different supply compared to each other, but overall, we're going very fast. I think that trying to look at Wales as somehow being responsible for a problem in vaccine supply is not an accurate way to go about describing the challenges that we have, and in any event, I think the speed of the roll-out in Wales, and in every other UK nation, is something we could all take a deal of pride in.
Minister, you probably enjoyed, as I did, watching Sir Gareth Edwards's video the other day of his visit to the vaccination centre in Bridgend behind the rugby club. He said in the video that it wasn't true that it was always the case that he enjoyed every visit to the Brewery Field in Bridgend. But it was a great message to all my constituents about the desirability of getting the vaccination and responding to it and getting down to do it. I look forward as well, Minister, to the opening of the Maesteg community vaccination centre in the recreation centre on 1 March. That's really welcome.
Minister, could I ask you—? I watched the Prime Minister's press conference yesterday evening, which lauded, as we all do, the incredible speed of the roll-out of the vaccination across all parts of the UK, including here in Wales. But, sometimes, he has a tendency to look a little bit too far in the future and to overpromise and underdeliver. We heard last night that, from the end of May, we might be looking at international flights for tourism and holidays, and that nightclubs would be opening on 21 June on the back of mass testing of people in the queues before they go in.
Could you, Minister, comment on those announcements, which have significantly heightened expectations because of the BBC spread across the UK, that nightclubs will be opening, flights will be running from the end of May and so on? How confident can we be, Minister, this far out, that we do not risk rerunning past mistakes of going too far too fast, particularly by the UK Government, and introducing new strains of the virus from around the world, and that we avoid having a devastating resurgence of this virus and new strains throughout next winter? Let's be cautious, step by step, and in some ways, underpromise but overdeliver.
Thank you for the question. I did see the clip of Sir Gareth Edwards, the greatest living Welshman, talking to the First Minister. I think it was very positive in terms of his own experience and what that meant. I hope that other people have had a chance to watch that, and that it will encourage others to make sure that they too go and get their vaccine and receive a warm welcome in the Brewery Field.
On the Prime Minister's conference yesterday, I think the first point to make is that it's a much better conversation to be having about what we can do in the future, rather than talk about the things we still can't do. We should all have a sense of optimism about the future, but the future is not certain. We have made a deliberate choice to be faithful to the scientific evidence and public health advice that we receive, which is why we have a different approach to school opening in Wales. It is directly in line with the evidence and advice we've had. They've made a different policy choice in England, as they're entitled to do. So, they're storing up to have, if you like, a 'big bang' approach on 8 March. That isn't what our advice says that we should do. It's a choice for English Ministers to do that, and they're entitled to do so, but our risk appetite is different, which is why we're following the advice.
When I think about international travel, it is one of the things that really bothers me about the future and reimportation, because, by May, we won't have completed the adult population with their first dose, let alone the second dose as well. I remember very well last summer's experience where I changed the rules on quarantine and what people could expect to do when a flight from Zante was in mid-air. We did that because the evidence was mounting at that point about reimportation of coronavirus when we had very low coronavirus levels. Remember that we had levels of two to three in 100,000 at one point in the summer, and we're now talking about the rates being much lower when we're just about 80 in 100,000. So, there has to be real caution for the future.
You may or may not have heard the deputy chief medical officer this morning on Radio Wales, making very clear the point that we simply can't predict months and months into the future what the position will be with the spread of coronavirus with a much more virulent strain, in the sense of its ability to transmit, so much, much more likely to spread. To give, somehow, a baked-in roadmap, with dates not data, going into the middle of the summer, I don't think is the right approach. I think we need to manage people's expectations, and understand that most people are cautious, and want to be assured that, coming out of this, we're not going to lurch into the future and then have to lurch back into lockdown, if at all possible.
I just don't think it's realistic that nightclubs are going to be open in the way that is described in June. I'd be delighted to be wrong, but I'm much more interested in keeping Wales safe, in keeping people alive and well, and not having to introduce much more restrictive measures to restrict national life, with all the public health harm that you'd have to avoid in doing so, but also the economic damage you'd do in bringing back sectors of the economy that we hope to open in a sustained fashion. So, we'll continue to take our approach as to how we keep Wales safe in a cautious, evidence-led way.
Thank you, Minister.