The next item is a statement by the Minister for Health and Social Services—update on coronavirus. I call on the Minister for Health and Social Services, Eluned Morgan.

Thank you very much, Dirprwy Lywydd. For the first time this Senedd and for the first time in many months, I must tell Members that cases of coronavirus are, unfortunately, rising in Wales. We are once again facing a serious situation and we are at the beginning of a third wave of the pandemic. In the space of a few short weeks, the delta variant, which was originally known as the variant of concern originating in India, has spread from three small clusters in north and south-east Wales into our communities in every part of Wales.

Over the last fortnight, the coronavirus case rate and the positivity rate have more than doubled. Today, the case rate is 31.3 cases per 100,000 people. Cases are rising in almost every local authority area in Wales, driven by this fast-moving, highly transmissible variant. In Conwy, the rates are now approaching 100 cases per 100,000 people, and in Denbighshire and Flintshire they are higher than 50 in 100,000 people.

Dirprwy Lywydd, eight out of 10 new cases of coronavirus identified in Wales are cases of the delta variant. It is estimated that the R rate for Wales is now between 1 and 1.4, which is a further sign that infections are once again rising. All of the evidence suggests that the delta variant is more transmissible than the alpha variant, or the Kent variant, which was responsible for the majority of cases during the second wave over the winter.

Wales is not alone in seeing a rising tide of coronavirus cases caused by the delta variant; if anything, we are a few weeks behind the situation in the rest of the United Kingdom. In England, there are now more than 70,000 confirmed cases of the delta variant, and some 5,000 cases in Scotland. In both England and Scotland, increasing numbers of people are being admitted to hospital with coronavirus again, and, very sadly, Public Health England has confirmed 73 deaths linked to the delta variant. Fortunately, we have not yet reached this stage here in Wales. We are some two to three weeks behind what is happening beyond our borders, but this provides a sobering vision of what may come.   

In the past week, the First Minister of Scotland and the Prime Minister have both paused their plans to relax coronavirus restrictions because of concerns regarding the delta variant. And here in Wales, the First Minister has confirmed that we will not be going ahead with any new relaxation of alert level 1 indoor restrictions this week or over the next three-week cycle. We will use this four-week pause to focus on speeding up vaccinations to help prevent more people falling seriously ill as we face this new wave of infections.

Even though cases are rising, we still have the lowest coronavirus rates in the UK, and, thanks to the enormous efforts of everyone involved, we have some of the best vaccination rates in the world. All of this will help us as we face this third wave. The modelling work suggests that a four-week pause now will help to reduce the peak number of daily hospital admissions by up to half, at a time when the NHS is very busy responding to all of our healthcare needs, not just treating coronavirus.

Dirprwy Lywydd, I want to pay tribute to our fantastic vaccine programme and everyone who has made it such a success. The very latest figures show that 88.7 per cent of adults have had their first dose and 60.2 per cent have had their second. Between now and mid July, we'll be putting an extra 0.5 million vaccines into the system. We'll be focused on offering a second dose to everyone in priority groups 1 to 9 over the next four weeks. That's everyone over 50, all healthcare workers, social care workers and other vulnerable groups, including, of course, care home residents. And, subject to supply, we’ll be bringing forward appointments for the people over 40 so that they don’t have to wait longer than eight weeks between their first and second doses. Now, to achieve this, we will need everyone’s help to encourage people to come forward and complete their two-course course. One vaccine is not enough; we need everyone to have two.

Dirprwy Lywydd, although there will be no substantial changes to the coronavirus regulations for the next four weeks, we have made some small amendments to make sure that the rules are easier to understand. And these include changing the regulations so the size of a venue—together with a risk assessment—will determine how many people can attend an indoor wedding or civil partnership reception or wake. We've begun reopening residential outdoor education centres, starting with primary school-age children. We have amended the regulations to bring grass-roots music and comedy venues into line with the rules for hospitality. And we've also updated the regulations so that they reflect the latest evidence about how businesses can take all reasonable measures to reduce risk on their premises and clarify the rules about 2m distances for groups of six people.

We will continue to run our programme of pilot events in theatre, sport and other sectors during June and July, testing large numbers of people to see how and when they gather safely and what the effect of that is.

We have also issued updated guidance in a number of important areas, including hospital visits and for places of worship. And we've published a statement by our scientific advisers about the use of face coverings in schools, although there'll be no immediate change in their use.

Dirprwy Lywydd, I'll close by saying that we're once again at a crucial point in this pandemic. Vaccinations offer us real hope of a different relationship with the virus. It may be possible to respond to this wave without having to introduce stricter lockdown measures, if we can break the link between infection and hospitalisation. Vaccination may also help us move beyond the pandemic phase and end this cycle of imposing and unlocking restrictions. But, for the time being, we will continue with our cautious, data-driven approach to responding to this ongoing pandemic. Diolch.

Conservative spokesperson, Russell George.

Diolch, Deputy Presiding Officer. Minister, can I thank you for your update this afternoon? On the delta variant, although we're looking at higher numbers of infections in Wales, there are still relatively low numbers of hospitalisations, fortunately, standing at 116 with COVID in general in acute beds, and one with COVID in an invasive ventilation bed. I of course appreciate, and I think you said it yourself, that there's always going to be that time lag, isn't there, between weeks of infection to severe cases.

But I turn now to what I asked you on 8 June about your research on vaccinations, to which you responded at the time that early analysis of the data was looking very positive, and there were actually still very few cases of the delta variant at the time, but it was growing exponentially. So, at that time, you said you needed an

'extra two weeks for us to analyse that data', so that it was the right call—you said at the time—for the Cabinet to make the decisions of phasing in the restrictions. Now, I know last Friday the First Minister couldn't give any particular update in terms of the effectiveness of the vaccination. We're now two weeks on today, and there's nothing in particular on that in today's statement. So can I ask: are you able to provide any further update on how the vaccinations have worked against the delta variant in Wales? And if you aren't able to answer that today, can you perhaps give us an indication of when you will be in a position to give us that analysis?

Turning to the restrictions, I note—. As far as my perspective is concerned, we've been told, haven't we, by health professionals, that COVID is likely to be with us forever, and I'm sure you would agree with that analysis, sadly. And we have to live with COVID. So, I think, from my perspective, I certainly don't want to see us in any further lockdowns; I'm sure we all would agree with that position. The First Minister has said that he won't rule out any further lockdowns at the present time. I'm assuming you agree with the First Minister's position on that. You've said that there will be a pause, effectively, over the next four weeks, but can I ask you about any considerations in Cabinet that you have given to having further restrictions or further lockdowns? That's not what I want to see, but I'm asking you for your analysis and your thoughts in terms of what your considerations are as a Cabinet in that regard. Are you looking at further restrictions now and, effectively, are you seeking to have a situation where Wales has a zero COVID death rate? Because that position, I think, would be almost impossible to achieve. But I'm trying to understand here the balance that you are bringing and when we're going to get that information on hospitalisations for the delta variant in terms of your thinking in terms of potential further restrictions as well.

You've mentioned a couple of areas that you have relaxed. I was very pleased that you've relaxed visits to those in hospital; you've relaxed restrictions there. You've permitted singing in churches, which is another area I welcome as well. The outdoor education centres is, again, welcome, but I think the concern there is—and I'll perhaps ask for your thoughts on whether there are some lessons to be learned here—that for certain industries, they do need to have much prior notice, because for outdoor educational centres that take weeks to prepare, and schools then have to make arrangements, it's just too late in the day for them to alter their arrangements. We know that, once perhaps a school has changed their location—perhaps they were even coming into Wales and going to somewhere else in the UK—then in future years they may not go back to coming to Wales. So, it's very important that decisions are made and released to certain sectors with urgency, and with time for them to be able to plan in order for that restriction lifting to make the difference.

Clinical experts have warned that, because cases of the flu have been suppressed so much in the last 18 months, presumably because of the lockdowns, our immune systems will be lower, leading to stored up problems, potentially, for the winter. Now, here in Wales, Public Health Wales has noted that the flu GP consultation rates were 0.7 per 100,000 practice population—that's as at 17 June—well below the seasonal average of 11 per 100,000. So, its own surveillance data is suggesting that the flu has not circulated over the winter months, so there remains the potential for unseasonal activity or higher than usual rates during the 2021-22 season. And globally, the World Health Organization has also expressed concerns that influenza, or flu, activity remains at a lower level than expected for this time of year. So, looking at last year's uptake of the flu vaccination, just over 51 per cent of those under 65 years of age in a clinical risk group received their vaccination for the flu. So, what efforts are you making now in order to ensure that those most at risk will be given their vaccination, and, most importantly, take it up? And I wonder if you could also let us know what your discussions are with your UK counterparts in terms of another COVID booster programme, and how you are supporting the Welsh NHS to prepare and cope with what will inevitably be a greater winter pressure that's going to come, sadly.

Gosh, lots of questions there, Russell. Thank you. I'll do my best to try and answer them. You'll be aware that we are just entering a third wave, and that is why now is not the time to put our foot down on the pedal, especially when we are still learning about the delta variant.

There are some really encouraging early signs, but obviously it's really difficult for us to measure from Wales, because our levels are so low, so we are looking at what's happening elsewhere, particularly in England. There are some very interesting papers that have been published, but they haven't been peer reviewed, so we're waiting for that analysis to be carried out so that we can have real confidence in what we're seeing as early indications of the potential for the two doses of the vaccine to significantly reduce the chances of hospitalisation. So, once we've seen that peer-reviewed document, I think we'll be in a better place to make a judgment. Certainly, that's why we've paused our unlocking system.

We don't have any plans for the time being for further lockdowns, but I've got to tell you that this will be data driven, as it's always been in Wales. We will follow the science and follow the data, and what we won't do is to give false promises. We won't have a freedom day in Wales; we won't have a terminus date that we will work towards. We will do what's right given the circumstances before us, and we will read the data and respond to that.

We were pleased to see that we were able to relax visits to hospitals, but I think it's probably worth emphasising that it is important for those decisions to be made at a local level. So, we know that the delta variant is very significant now, or it's building in areas of north Wales, so the judgments they make there may be different from the judgments that are made in health boards elsewhere.

We were pleased to relax the restrictions in relation to outdoor visitor centres, particularly for young children. And of course, what we tried to do was to give them the opportunity to use up the very few weeks that are left before the end of term. So, of course there's a balance to strike here; we've got to watch the data, but when we see that it's in a place that we are comfortable with, then I think a lot of those centres would be happy for us to open, rather than give them another three weeks to prepare. So, of course it's a balancing act.

In relation to flu, we are very concerned about potentially what could happen this winter. I know that the respiratory syncytial virus situation, in particular in relation to children, is something we are very concerned about, and we are putting very comprehensive organisational plans in place. That is quite far advanced already, and we will be listening to the advice of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation in terms of our ability to roll out booster doses alongside flu vaccines for the future.

Plaid Cymru spokesperson Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Thank you very much, Deputy Llywydd. I have four or five questions. First of all, following on from that final point you just made: do you have an update for us on the work that is being done in order to ensure that the booster vaccine can be provided in the autumn in accordance with what the JCVI has suggested is required?

Pushing that second dose out there as quickly as possible is crucial now, of course. I'm aware that there are different ways that people are to deal with their health boards: some are to expect a letter, others a phone call, others have to go online to make their own appointments; and that's what I did, ultimately, and I got my second vaccine yesterday. Do we need some consistency here or do we need to strengthen comms at a national level in terms of how people are meant to access that second dose as soon as possible? Because I have to admit that I was a little confused myself, and have been over the last few weeks.

Now students: many students of course will have had their first vaccination where they are at university, and then will return home to other parts of Wales or to England. So, can you explain what work is being done to facilitate that second dose, so that it can be provided without barriers, where people have changed addresses and letters have been lost, and so on?

The growth in the delta variant is a threat to our hospitals once again, and we very much hope that the vaccine will prevent a great increase in the numbers attending our hospitals. But what are you as a Government doing to strengthen the shift towards having more COVID-lite sites, so that other NHS activities aren't placed under unnecessary threat? Getting these COVID-lite sites is something that the Royal College of Surgeons has requested a number of times over the past few months, and they're still not seeing the move in that direction that they have requested.

One final question on asthma specifically, and the need for asthma sufferers to receive an additional vaccination. There's concern among Asthma UK that there are hundreds of thousands of people who have gone missing from NHS systems across the UK, and haven't been able to access that early vaccination. There is a list for flu vaccinations held by the NHS, so it strikes me that we're reinventing the wheel slightly here. So, can you look at the possibility of just going off that asthma list for flu vaccination in order to ensure that asthma sufferers do get boosters as soon as possible when we get to the autumn? Thank you.

Thank you very much. In terms of the consistency of communication, I think that the guidance is very clear on the websites of the health authorities in terms of where people should go. I think it's difficult, because people do receive their information now from so many different sources, and I think that what we're trying to do is to respond to what is appropriate, particularly where we see that fewer people are coming forward. There is a specific issue at the moment with black African and Caribbean communities, and the 30 to 49 age group; there is a problem there. We have to focus on where they go for their information. So, we do a great deal of detailed work where we see there is an issue. I was up in Wrexham on Friday, and it was interesting because we'd seen that there was a problem in one area of Wrexham. They'd moved the vaccination centre into a leisure centre in the middle of that area where fewer people were coming forward, and on the weekend they were going to go to the centre of the town, so that they went to where people would be passing by. I think that is something that we're making progress on.

In terms of students, it's clear that it is possible for people to walk in and receive their vaccine. It's important that people understand that, be it the first or second dose. My son came home over the weekend and the first thing I did was to ensure that he went for his vaccination, and it was interesting to see he wasn't offered the vaccine in England, where he was a student. So, I'm pleased to see that we are in the vanguard in that regard.

In terms of those COVID-lite settings, what we're trying to do is discuss at the moment with health boards, and we're eager to see whether we can see health boards working together a bit more, and having those more regional centres. You'll be aware that, if you have a hot area and a cold area, it's difficult to have an A&E in that area. You try to close down an A&E department in a hospital. I don't think you're asking for that, but that is a restriction on the possibility of changing one hospital into a COVID-lite centre.

In terms of asthma, I know that, in the first instance, people who had serious asthma were in that first cohort of people who were prioritised. I was aware that there was a different group in terms of the flu vaccine. There was a restriction on how much stock we had of the vaccine at that time, and as we go into the booster phase we'll see whether we'll have additional supply, and then perhaps it'll be easier for us to go back to that report and the list that we had for the flu.

Minister, thank you for your statement this afternoon. I'd just like to raise a point with you about the flow of information and the way you bring that information to Parliament. Today, this statement was a last-minute statement added to the agenda. I didn't hear anything different in that statement to what I heard at your press briefing yesterday and, indeed, the First Minister's press briefing on Friday. I fully understand the pressures of this information coming out, but it really is important that Members are shown respect and that this information does come to Members first, so that they can communicate with their constituents. At the height of the pandemic, I realised the sensitivities about putting that information out via public broadcast and media sessions from Cathays Park. But could I ask how exactly you bid for time in the Government scheduling of parliamentary business? Because I would urge the Government in the strongest possible terms, and seek the support of the Presiding Officer in this, to ensure that these statements do come and this information does come to Members first, rather than press briefings that are currently undertaken at Cathays Park. 

Thanks very much. Certainly, we were very anxious to make sure that you heard this information in the Chamber. We were very aware that that statement was made on Friday by the First Minister, and further information given yesterday by myself. That's why we were very anxious. Don't forget that we are making decisions here in real time with data that is coming at us very last minute, and we are having to make very quick judgments. Some of those judgments have to be made on a Thursday, with an announcement on Friday, and this is the earliest opportunity we can have to come to you to let you know exactly what's going on. We will continue with that commitment to let you know, but there are times during a pandemic where we actually just need to get some information out there quickly, and make sure that the public know how serious the situation is, in particular when we're entering a third wave. 

Minister, while the Welsh Government's briefings and statements on coronavirus have covered a wide range of areas, one area that's not received much attention, certainly lately, is dentistry. Clearly, emergency treatment has been available throughout the COVID period, but figures provided by the British Dental Association show that dentistry in Wales is currently operating at around a fifth of pre-pandemic levels. We know that regular preventative oral health checks are important, and some constituents of mine in the Swansea valley have contacted me expressing their concerns they have not had a routine check-up now for quite some time. There is an understanding, of course, that resuming routine check-ups must be done safely, but at the same time, there are also concerns around the potential widening of the oral health inequality gap. Will you therefore outline the Welsh Government's thinking on this, and the discussions that are taking place with the profession, and provide an indication of when you expect routine dental services to resume? Diolch.  

I'm very aware that dentistry is one of those sectors where we have to be very careful, because the danger of aerosol spread is real and more significant there than in many other sectors. That's why we are still in a situation where we're on an amber warning in relation to dentistry. That means that those restrictions are really quite severe. We have to make sure that there is very significant cleansing in between each patient after treatment. So, we are very aware that this is a difficult situation. I've already had a meeting with my officials on what we can do to speed up the situation when we are able to. There's some very interesting research that's come out from Bangor University to demonstrate that dental assistants can be as accurate in their analysis of check-ups, and so we'll be looking to see if it's possible for us to use dental assistants and to train them up so as to clear some of that backlog. I was just asked about how to get time in the Chamber; I've asked whether it would be possible to come to the Chamber and give an update on the situation in relation to dentistry, because I am aware that this is a particular issue across the whole of Wales.  

Minister, can I thank you for your statement? You made reference to outdoor education centres and the opportunities now that can be afforded to primary school children as a result of some of the changes that you've made. I've been contacted by the head of the Army Cadet Force in north Wales, who has said that unfortunately these ongoing restrictions will affect around 1,000 cadets in Wales, aged between the ages of 12 and 18, who were really looking forward to the summer camps and activities that have been programmed into their diaries now for many months. Can I urge you to review these restrictions as soon as possible, with a view to lifting them for army cadet camps in particular, and of course for other activities, particularly given that many of these youngsters will come from deprived backgrounds and will not have the opportunities to get together or go away, perhaps, even on a family holiday, whether that be in Wales or other parts of the UK? Can I ask you for an update on when you expect to be in a position to review that position as soon as possible? Thank you.

Diolch yn fawr, Darren. I know you've been a champion of the armed services for many, many years, and it's great to see you continuing in that role. You'll be aware that if we allow people to stay in the same accommodation overnight, then the chances of viral spread is significantly increased. We're able to do that in relation to primary school children, partly because we know that if they are affected the impact is very low, but also because these children are already in bubbles. That would not be the case with army cadets, and that's why it won't be possible for us, at this time, to allow that to happen. We will, of course, be making a judgment on this in a month's time, in terms of how much indoor mixing will be allowed, but I think we're a bit of a way from a situation where we will be able to allow adults to mix indoors over a long period of time—that is, overnight stays. I think that will take a little bit of time, I'm afraid, Darren.

And finally, Mark Isherwood.

Diolch. I also wish to comment on your reference to residential outdoor education centres, some of whom contacted me yesterday, which was how I found out about the Welsh Government statement, as we hadn't been notified directly as Members. I first raised concerns expressed by residential outdoor education centres regarding Welsh Government coronavirus guidance with the Welsh Government here in March, after the sector had stated they had 'reached a critical point', unable to trade for 12 months, yet the Welsh Government, they said, had failed to provide the financial support and constructive dialogue they needed to survive. That was a letter, I think, sent to all Members. 

Last week, I received e-mails from residential outdoor education centres stating, for example, 'This industry is being permanently decimated. The result of this is creating a huge deficit in the local economy, both in the long and short term. Currently, outdoor education residentials are being managed safely in England, and money that should be coming into the Welsh economy is being lost. The rules are inconsistent, and, frankly, flawed. Put simply, Wales is about to lose one of the most joyful ways in which its heritage and culture is shared with young people'. And, a final quote: 'The loss of Welsh centres is a disaster for Wales from a financial and cultural perspective, but can be easily dealt with'.

Although you announced yesterday that overnight stays in residential outdoor education centres are now allowed for primary school children, centres have responded stating, for example, 'If only these advised changes had been just a few weeks back, the chances of some centres being saved would have been much improved' and, 'It seems to many of us who provide residential outdoor education that crisis has only been responded to with crisis'. How will you now engage in the constructive dialogue with them that they've long been calling for?

Diolch yn fawr, Mark. I think the first thing to say is that we are very aware of the importance of this sector to Wales. I think it's one of the areas, in particular in parts of north Wales and the Brecon Beacons, where, actually, people can have life-changing experiences—taking people outside of their normal environment and exposing them to life outdoors. Of course, we understand how important it is in particular for mental health and well-being as well. We have actually provided support for this sector. It's all very well saying, 'If only we knew a few weeks before'. Well, if only we knew about the virus a few months before. It's a very strange way of suggesting that we make decisions. [Interruption.] No. We have always followed the data. We will continue to follow the data. We know that transmission within residential areas where adults are mixing over a long period of time is likely to spread the virus. We are not going to be pushed around on this. We will stand our ground. Our role is to protect the people of Wales, and that's where we will stand. But, of course, we will continue to give support to sectors that are experiencing a difficult time. 

Thank you, Minister.