Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 5:30 pm on 23 June 2021.
Yet, with a competent and caring UK Government, it could have been so, so different. Instead, we have been delivered a trade agreement of gargantuan incompetence, which now threatens our economic and political stability, the fragmentation of the UK, and the undermining of peace in Northern Ireland.
The impact on our economy is clear: reduced trade, as the Office for Budgetary Responsibility is forecasting, and, as a result of the EU trade agreement, that both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the UK; a hit to the UK's long-term productivity, with the OBR forecasting productivity to fall by 4 per cent as a consequence of the trade agreement; trade being diverted away from the ports in Wales, with volumes of trade remaining well below historic levels, as goods are incentivised to move directly through Northern Ireland into GB markets.
Major implications to key sectors in Wales: food and drink exports to the EU down 47 per cent in the first quarter of 2021; new barriers to trade for live seafood exports to our main markets in Europe, which are threatening the existence of entire sectors in Wales. Risks from the UK Government's approach to new trade deals: the agreement with Australia poses significant risks to the agri-food sector in Wales, which could face competition from increased imports from Australian beef and lamb producers, who do not have to meet the same standards as our producers in areas like animal welfare.
And, as we debated here last week, despite the promises made at the time of the referendum and afterwards, the UK Government is pursuing an agenda of aggressive centralisation and attacking Welsh devolution, and they do not even hide it. The only people who don't seem to be aware of it are the Welsh Conservatives.
Using the financial assistance powers of the internal market Act, powers that were designed to seize functions that sit within the competence of the Senedd and Welsh Government, they are robbing the people of Wales of money that we were promised and are entitled to. Wales may receive as little as £10 million through the shared prosperity fund in its pilot year of 2021, when we would have had access to at least £375 million annually from January 2021 for new EU structural funds programmes, on top of the receipts for commitments to projects that we've already made via the current EU funding programmes.
Neither is there any substance to the UK levelling-up fund, with local authorities in Wales likely to receive less than £450,000 a year. Not only do these funds represent a huge cut from what Wales could have expected to receive, they also represent a blatant power grab, which goes against what was decided by the UK Parliament in the Government of Wales Acts and endorsed in two referenda, which the Welsh Conservatives so easily seem to forget.
There is no doubt that Wales's public funding, our economy and our devolution settlement have all been dramatically damaged by the UK Government's approach since the referendum. In fact, the UK Government's so-called plan for Wales—a plan where there wasn't even the decency to engage and consult with the Welsh Government—shows the absolute contempt that they have for this Parliament.
And yet the Welsh Conservatives, or, should I say—really, their true name now—the Conservative Party in Wales, continue to try and spread the falsehood that the UK Government has actually transferred powers to this Senedd as a result of Brexit. That is false, and they know it. Those were already our powers, exercised at EU level with our consent, which we were promised would legally return to us once we left the EU.
The Tory power grab is for one reason alone: to secure powers in Wales that they cannot achieve through the ballot box. I have to say Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump would be absolutely proud of what you are doing, because you not only undermine devolution, you continue to undermine democracy and the rule of law, and, in doing so, you've accelerated a process that is rapidly leading to the break-up of the UK. Llywydd, it doesn't have to be this way. The Tories can change their ways and they can repent and start to stand up for Wales. After all, there is more joy in heaven over one sinner who repents than 99 just persons who need no repentance.
Llywydd, we have a vision of a strong Wales in a successful UK, in a radically transformed union, a voluntary union of nations, founded on common purpose and shared prosperity, and celebrating the common interests and solidarity of working people and families across the UK. We will be setting out our updated vision shortly, when we publish the second edition of 'Reforming our Union: Shared Governance in the UK', and, after that, I'll be making a statement to the Senedd, describing in more detail the steps that we will be taking to establish a new constitutional commission to stimulate wider debate through a national civic conversation, a conversation and engagement with the people of Wales. We will engage widely, right across Wales. We want to ensure that our citizens have the opportunity to shape how we make decisions at all levels of government about issues that affect their lives, that matter to them, and determine the future of our relationship with the nations and regions of the UK.
Llywydd, our future post Brexit, our constitution, our sovereignty, belong to the people of Wales and no-one else, and I call on Members to support the Government amendment, to work with us to promote, amplify and enrich the national conversation that we are about to embark upon. Diolch, Llywydd.